BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders winning streak came to a halt in the Wollongong rain. In a game that required discipline and intelligence to handle the complex conditions they instead were careless with the ball, seeking shortcuts back to their best. Their opposition were not so profligate, and the Raiders suffered the indignity of defeat for the first time in months.

Canberra came into this game not so much on a heater but without a challenge in months. They last lost to the Bulldogs in May. In the meanwhile they’ve vacillated between playing electric and inconsistent footy. They’ve felt vulnerable at times, but always managed to find another gear to hit. In this weather finding that gear became more precarious, and winning was going to have to be earned.

The Raiders did not seek to earn it. They conceded 13 infringements, and made 15 errors. NRL stats has them as finishing the game with 44 per cent of the ball, but that feels inflated. For so much of the game the Dragons were sitting at north of 60 per cent of possession. Red zone stats were comical. Tackles in the opposition half separated by margins normally reserved for Canberra victories. At one point they had defended 19 sets to 7. Throughout the first half they’d been doubled in metres. For the first twenty minutes of the second half they only had forty percent of the ball. The game was played squarely at the Dragons advantage.

The Raiders dropped the rock in good ball and on exit sets. They gave away multiple obstruction penalties in the redzone, dropped crash balls, dropped the ball cold at first receiver. They gave away penalties on penalties, repeat sets on repeat sets. It’s rare you’ll see a team fail to make touch on a penalty kick-for-touch. Jamal Fogarty did it twice (and added multiple seven tackle sets for good value), and neither was because of a lack of distance, but rather too much ambition.

So long has it been that they’ve had a challenge that it almost seemed like they were trying to create one for themselves. It felt like at some point they’d learn their lesson and work it out, but somehow it got worse in the second half. In a fifteen minute period in the second their sets ended in the following ways: obstruction penalty, drop at first receiver, kick went dead, drop at first receiver, dropped kick, dropped pass on a shift, dropped crash play. The longer the game went it seemed the harder they tried, and the less fluidity and cohesion they found. Looking for one play to be the difference, and unable to find their way back to square one to get moving.

They were forced to defend for so much of the game. That was actually impressive. The weight of ball would have destroyed other teams. It would have even resulted in this team capitulating at other times. The Dragons are not an elite team, but they have good methods for creating opportunities if they can get into the red zone (such as that ‘fan’ movement in shape moving to their left). Luce Leilua spent the entire game running as wide as a centre. Lyhkan King-Togia was poking in and around the edge. Zac Hosking, Ethan Strange and Tom Starling were all impressive in performing their individual functions. The team broadly felt safe in defence.

But it was a test for the Raiders right edge. The Dragons got through twice for the game. Given how many times that test came it was impressive that the weak Raiders right edge was so capable repelling the movement. One was a cold miss in a one-on-one situation by Matt Timoko. On the other he made the tackle, but a good ball out the back found Xavier Savage having already pushed in from the wing too soon. There’s a tendency to solely blame Timoko for these failures, but it’s a team effort, and it’s never helped by how often Savage jumps the route, so to speak, nor by Jamal Fogarty’s lack of lateral pace.

Despite the conditions, 18 points and only two tries was actually a good outcome. Even without a lot of ball the Raiders created two tries of their own in the first half, and it seemed like if they kept their heads they could find more in the second. Both tries followed the same pattern from beginning to end. Canberra kicked the shit out of the ruck, working down the ground less than a pass wide of the ruck. They got a repeat off a short kick, and then hit Timoko on the right. On the first one he bossed through three defenders for fun. On the second the threat of Kaeo Weekes out the back gave him a much smoother run.

These two tries should have been a hint but their inability to do intelligent or even simple things made it hard to get back to. As the game wore on they searched for a magical moment to cover the difference but there was no shortcut. Error after error followed. Frustration mounted. Owen Pattie tried to make things happen. Fogarty tried to make things happen. No one could. It felt like they were trying to reach out and grab their best football, only to find themselves confusingly grasping at air.

They’ll need to find a way back before their next game. You will hear two main myths out of this week. One is that Canberra are frauds. This is not demonstrated by this game. The Raiders were certainly outplayed, but instead of having their best efforts shut down, they were kept at bay by being four-fifths there on each movement. A handling error, a pass that was near but not quite, a line heading in instead of out. It all felt near, but not quite. The things that they do best – like play with pace and dynamism through the middle – were hampered by their handling and, to a degree, by the conditions. Cleaner hands and a clearer skies next week will make a world of difference.

The second myth you’ll hear is that this the game that the Raiders had to lose. I don’t buy that. Winning is better than losing, and Canberra could have won if they could have found a way to do what has made them great – complete, play with directness and ferocity. That they were unable to do this was a function of what occurred on that field. Any time they needed to connect they couldn’t. Their opposition was able to do it more. This highlighted that Canberra cannot coast to victories every week, and there is no shortcut to doing that, especially at the pointy end of the season.

It’s one loss, and frankly if you’d told me in May that Canberra would be into August before they’d lost again, I would have taken it, regardless of the draw and the expectations inherent. But it does mean that the Raiders next few weeks – against Manly and Penrith – take on a more pronounced significance. A loss can be forgiven. Start stringing them together when you’re getting ready for finals footy and people will start asking questions.

The Raiders lost because they played poorly and because their opposition was better than them. The things that make Canberra a good football team felt just out of reach, separated from the Milk by ill-discipline on their part, and the mirror image from their opposition. This outcome does not undermine what they’ve achieved so far this season, but is a good reminder that winning is not guaranteed.

For now though, the test is getting back to what works. Find the fluidity. Play with pace. Hold the goddamn ball. It’s not a complicated game. But on some nights it just feels that way.

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