BY DAN

Have you heard? The Canberra Raiders have won five in a row. They sit in second, having beaten third, fourth, fifth and sixth on their way here. In short they are pretty good.

We said as much in our Review. But does that stand up in the cold light of day? Why would you take our word for it? Anyone that reads these pages regularly would assume, judging by the typos, that my eyes aren’t worth shit.

Facts are facts and some of these facts should make you notice. Most noteworthy is the fact that the Canberra Raiders – of crash plays yore – have scored the most points in the competition this year. Sure it’s not the best attacking team (the Storm score more per game) but given how hard it was, how reliable it is, feels stunning. This time last year they had a hard time finding the line, now they’ve scored the most tries in the league.

And it’s not a fluke either. They’ve created the fourth most line breaks. They’re leading the league in post contact metres and tackle breaks. Fifth in metres and second in offloads. More than lucky tries they’re creating opportunities. Things are happening because they’re making them happen. With their power game. With their agility. By changing direction, hitting angled lines to make multiple defenders make hard decisions. They’re a collective menace to defensive lines.

Collective is important there. It’s not just one person on a burner. Eight Raiders are in the top 50 in post contact metres. There’s four in the top 20 in line breaks (Sav Tamale is second!). Three in the top 20 in tackle breaks. Fogarty, Strange and Kris are all in the top 20 in try assists. It’s a spread. It’s a mixture. It’s everyone, everywhere, all at once.

If the countables tell one tale, it’s only reinforced by the advance stats. Apart from being very handsome, the Rugby League Eye Test also uses an expected point model to put a value on every play the ball “calculating the probability of scoring a try based on several factors, including location, tackle number, current margin and minute of the game”. It gives us a mechanism to understand if teams are getting into high efficiency places to score, or if they’ve just had some big rolls land their way. And as you can see, Canberra are getting into good positions, and making the most of it.

Who’s that nestled there in that dominant quartile? That was before the Storm game, but oh my what a handsome football team.

I know what you’re thinking. Yeah they’re good, but what about the defence. Sure it hasn’t been top shelf this season. They’ve let in more points than they’d like, and find themselves in the middle of the pack when it comes to points per game. You need to have a good defence to be a legit contender. Canberra don’t have that yet.

But I suspect it’s not as bad as we think. So many tries that have been scored against them in recent weeks have been examples of exemplary execution from their opposition rather than structural weakness on their own behalf. And the stats suggest there’s potentially improvement in the defensive outcomes. Canberra have the forth fewest missed tackles in the game. Same goes for ineffective tackles. On the League Eye Tests expected points conceded measure

Oh who’s that sneaking into the dominant quartile? I’m not saying they’re a competitive defence yet, but it certainly feels possible. And when you add the fact they’ll played seven of the top nine teams by Sunday night, it feels like those numbers will only improve with time. Just how much? Well we’ll see.

The challenge now is that it’s no longer cute. Canberra can’t hide behind the misery or ignorance of Sydney media. I’ve seen videos with Billy Slater talking about how good the Raiders are. Joel Caine and Bryan Fletcher were saying there’s no reason they can’t win the competition. Go two steps on social media and you’ll find the converted preaching like they were there on day one (go two more and you’ll find a Melbourne fan whinging about the refs *insert teenager eye roll*). Good teams will be ready to take them on. The Bulldogs are leading the competition for a reason.

They’ll be doing it without Horse this weekend, who suffered an category one concussion. That means he’ll miss 11 days, effectively ruling him out for the Dogs game. Missing Corey is bad luck, but it’s also an opportunity to demonstrate the depth and clarity of this squad right now. Canberra have only used 20 players this season – the least in the league (headbutts a coffee table to make sure everyone can hear him knocking on wood). Last year there might be pointing and guessing as to who would come in. Right now Stick gets to choose between Trey Mooney running over fools in Cup footy, or Simi Sasagi’s versatility. Given Zac Hosking is already covering the latter, we’d lean to Mooney. We’ll know tomorrow.

Such minor questions are a fun place to be for a change. The first quarter of this season has proven Canberra are a good footy team and ready to make a run at this. The foundation is solid. Can they do more? The signs are good.

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