BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders are preparing for life without Jamal Fogarty.

You can fumble your rosaries. Throw your salt. Knock on wood and jump over cracks. But it’s just hope and heavy hearts at this point. The long march to pain that we foreshadowed in the off-season is coming to its end. And if you don’t believe me, here’s what Rick said about the Manly deal to SEN.

if it’s real, three years at $700,000, Jamal should take it. You know I’d love to keep him. We can’t match that. Jamal’s 32 at the end of the year. If he can get three years, and if that is real, and they’re going to look after him for the three years, like Jamal’s got to take that….I believe I know the sources for that story and I believe it is there for him.

Look. I’m not happy about it. There’s plenty of talent in the Canberra pipeline. I’m as high on Ethan Sanders as I have been on any prospect in the Raiders pool. Read this. Or this. Or this. Or this. Or this. Or…you get the point. We’ve been writing about his ascension for near two years now. He is the future. But Jamal Fogarty, right now, is a more complete project.

The hope of having both the now and the future working together in some smooth harmonious transition was always a bit of a dream. That’s not how those things almost ever work but while Fogarty was staying with the team it was one we could hang on to. So what now? Hand over the keys to the young fella? Is he ready?

Stick wants some insurance. As he told SEN when asked about the next steps:

I will go and look for another experienced half because it’s such a big position. It’s such a lot of pressure on the halves…I will be looking for another player that has the ability to play a couple of positions and/or play halfback that can help those boys (Sanders, Cook and Strange) transition and develop in their early part of their career.

So basically go out and get an elder statesmen to take the helm/criticism until the new generation takes over. Sign a vet who’s happy to play the first few months of the season while Ethan Sanders finds his feet, and then transition to the young kid as soon as he proves he’s ready, or they fall out of finals contention. Whichever comes first. It’s a really common approach in NFL. Draft a young star at quarterback. Give him the pre-season and the first half of the next season to get acclimatised.

The Canberra Times have a provided a list of players you can look at here. These range from to unlikely (DCE and Adam Reynolds) to insane (Matt Frawley) and back around to depressing (Chad Townsend, Jackson Hastings).

The plan makes perfect sense in a vacuum but it’s also laden with risk. When someone comes on board in such a critical position, for a side likely to have caked-in expectation, they’ll inevitably becomes the focus of ire if the team doesn’t succeed. Experience works because you know what you’re walking into, and because you know how to get it done. But taking a job knowing you’re going to get blamed if it doesn’t work out limits the pool of players willing to to come to town.

Ask Chad Townsend how his time at the Roosters is going. Do you think he wants to do that again in Canberra? Jackson Hastings hasn’t been through jumping back and forth between first grade and Cup (and if we’re being honest, all the scuttlebutt is he is headed to the Super League). Drew Hutchison and Te Maire Martin are not halves, so what could they teach the young halves? If it’s Frawley you may as well play Adam Cook or Ethan Sanders because they’re both already better than him. Frawley was too slow for the NRL when he last played two years ago, was only a game manager in the sense he couldn’t do anything else, and was an out-and-out defensive liability. He’d be 31 come next season and just got dropped from the Super League. I’ve not heard of players gaining athleticism in their 30s.

The search is tough. Who’s the Jamal Fogarty of four years ago? A quality player leaving because a club looking to find a pathway for a talented young half isn’t willing to make a long-term commitment to him? Oh.

Of course this all depends on who you can get in the door, something we’ll only ever be able to ascertain the success through hindsight. Maybe the Chad would be perfect. Maybe it doesn’t matter, because the shift occurs early and Sanders (or Cook) is ready. The alternative – turning the side over to the kids – attracts the same risk but with no fallback. So we understand Stick’s approach here, and will be interested to see who he picks out.

Of course, it would be a lot easier if Fogarty just stayed for another round around the sun. Alas.

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