By Rob

The Raiders returned to form with their last-minute win over the Sharks, and cemented that victory with their first 50 point game since 2022, putting a hapless Parramatta to the sword in the top end. The Parra game was a slow, gradual build to the half century, rather than an early blitz (it was also assisted by a penalty try so amusing that it prompted this reaction from the man impeded).

The drubbing of the Eels catapulted the Raiders back up the ladder into 4th place. It also helped revert their differential back into positive territory, erasing some of the pain of the Manly game.

So from the fuggy mug of Darwin the boys in green have traveled straight to the much balmier conditions of the Gold Coast, keeping their acclimation tour rolling. Sticky’s broader plan here is plain to see – keep them on the move and focused on the task at hand.

Round 7 sees the return of Zac Hosking (in the role of Jesus). His addition to the bench means that Canberra effectively have three of the best second rowers at their disposal in this match, which will be key in arresting the impact of one David Fifita. Hosking’s return means that Simi Sasagi has been bumped back down to the extended bench.

In fact Hosking’s inclusion means the Raiders are now fielding their strongest 17. This team list looks right and feels strong. The backline is clicking, the spine is blending in a coherent fashion and the forwards a firing on all cylinders (at some point we’re going to have to ditch this metaphor/analogy in favour of a more powerful electric motor).

The forecast for Sunday is hot, 29° to be precise (this is bad). The heat will be tempered by a breeze (this is good). This is the second high-20’s game for the Raiders in 8 days (that’s bad). However they’re certainly getting better at playing in these conditions (that’s good). If you’re at the ground the heat might melt your Easter eggs (can I go now?)

Normally at this point I’d expound the general game plan for the Raiders but this week we’re going to offer a more specific pitch, courtesy of some juicy data generated by the Rugby League Eye Test. As you’d know from almost anything Dan writes, the Rugby League Eye Test is the Sportress’ preferred stats place, and if you want to know ball, you need to start there. The Eye Test has been kind enough to provide us with the average distances for where all teams are both conceding and scoring tries, and some of it is quite surprising.

Firstly, the average distances for tries conceded:

As we can see above the Raiders have the second shortest average distance for tries conceded, at 13.6 metres, meaning that on average most of the tries against them are launched from within the 20 metre red zone. Don’t let this dishearten you – it indicates that the Green Machine are pretty solid defensively across the preceding 80 metres. The Titans on the other hand are conceding from an average distance of 20.4 metres, meaning that most of the plays that score against them commence outside the red zone.

This is good news for the Raiders, as demonstrated in the second graphic below:

That’s right – the Raiders average distance for successful attacking plays is just 4 metres deeper than where the Titans are on average conceding from. The Raiders currently thrive on scoring from mid-range plays, and that appears to be where the Titans are weakest in defence.

The other thing we learn here is that the Gold Coast may have a hard time cracking the Milk’s wall on the try-line – their average attack distance is a whopping 31.7 metres, meaning that many of their plays are starting well downfield. Hopefully where Canberra is best at defending. Here’s hoping that data holds this weekend.

One thing I’m keen to see more of is Doctor Strange in control. His input against the Eels was a huge step-up, particularly in the back end of the match. His presence of mind to pivot in a running tackle to offload for Kris is the hallmark of a star running half.

The Titans should not be dismissed outright. They have the aforementioned Fifita, plus Big Tino, Brimson, Campbell and Verrills. They’ve proven too much for the likes of the Knights and Roosters, although it’s still hard to gauge how good anyone really is in this topsy-turvy competition.

Defensively the Raiders must continue reinforcing their right edge, although this should prove easier with Hosking coming on with fresh legs. If they’re focused and switched on they should be able to stifle the Titans at any point on the pitch.

In Conclusion

Round 7 presents the Raiders with an excellent chance to notch three wins straight. After this game they have the ‘Phins in Canberra and then the Storm at Suncorp for the final game of Magic Round). Ricky will no doubt be reminding them the importance of building off a strong win, so here’s hoping round 6 gets the sequel it deserves.

Raiders by 12+!

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