BY DAN

What started so promising has now fallen into a mess and Canberra only have four nights to fix it.

The twin debacles at Manly and Townsville were frustrating for different reasons. Manly was capitulation in the face of overwhelming pressure. Canberra didn’t have the ball and couldn’t seem to do anything about it. They held on as long as possible, but the damn burst and we were all left covered in what is was holding back. The Townsville game was different – the hope of ‘one bad day’ was thrown in our face like we were the clown and it was the pie.

Weakness have been revealed like iron chef: bright lights and lots of screaming. All we need are the ideas of what to do next. That would normally be fine, but the Raiders will arrive back in Canberra on Sunday, and only have until Thursday night’s game to fix some very real problems. Things seem to be not so much getting worse, but less stable, and more terminal. If they aren’t desperate to right things then they’re not paying attention.

Their opposition – the Sharks – lost on Saturday too and join a three week tour of teams inexplicably set up to target every worst thing about the Raiders. Now it crests with one of the best attacks in the competition in recent years. They beat Canberra 76-22 across two games last year, and already put 40 on the board in trial footy this year. Sweet.

Normally I’d argue there’s only benefit to the short turnaround is being able to get back on the horse. But it’s been a two-week long fall and some of the problems they’ve found aren’t fixable through hope. Kaeo Weekes looks like the bad Mitch Johnson. Everything is spraying, and he’s looking for a hole to fall into. I was heartened to see him try to involve himself in the attack in the second half against the Cows, but even that felt tentative. Under the high ball he’s more than a liability at the point. Six tries have started with his errors in two losses. Given Canberra have scored five in the same period, that feels like a problem.

Solving it isn’t easy. All the solutions are imperfect. Chevy Stewart has been good in Cup (another try and a try assist on the weekend), but if there was something I wanted him to work on it would be kick diffusal. You could move Xavier Savage or Seb Kris back there, but if Canberra’s attack is to find the pace and space it had through the first two weeks, it’s going to come with them in position, rather than Bert Hopoate. Maybe X is a good fullback – I’ve never seen it to be honest – but he’s an elite winger. Fixing problems by creating others is shortsighted to me.

When we’ve made so much noise about a long horizon, we need to lean in. Given the time available it seems likely that Kaeo will be given one more shot, and if *it* happens again the ‘mini bye’ between a Thursday and a hot Saturday in Darwin will be where a new suitor is found. I would prefer that’s two-to-three weeks of Chevy while Kaeo remembers how to catch. At least two players will be learning lessons. In the meantime the best outcome is if Kaeo gets his mojo back.

That may also help the attack, which is also a concern. As Stick said ominously in the post game

The players that I’m not impressed with, they know. There’s players that have more responsibility than others in attack…it’s disappointing and I know we’ve got to be better than that with the football

800 tackles in the red zone (all numbers approximate) and no real ideas or set plans is not good footy, and not what we saw in the first two weeks.

Just what the plan is isn’t entirely clear. Risky offloading had been a significant part of the success of the Warriors and Bronx games. But according to Stick it wasn’t a plan this weekend. In the press conference he spoke of allowing Corey Horsburgh some leeway but acknowledged that offloading wasn’t what they were trying to build the attack around, particularly in the redzone.

I’m not smart enough to work out what else is meant to be happening there. No one is expecting 1994 to let loose like a rose amongst the concrete but when forwards are creating more than halves, and outside backs are more isolated than Perth, then you’ve got problems that desperately need fixing.

The right side edge defence is equally concerning and befuddling. There was just no defensive ability to combat the pace of the Cows on the edge, and Matt Timoko had as bad a night has he’s had professionally. The test will be the same this week against the Sharks, so we’ll know pretty quickly if this was a problem for the Townsville heat or more endemic. Again I think it’s unlikely that much can be done before Thursday (and what would it even be?) but it’s something that needs to improve or teams are going to mind that gap.

If there’s one thing that can be fixed its the discipline. In four games Canberra have averaged 12.25 errors and 11.25 infringements a game. On the error front those numbers wouldn’t be so bad if the Raiders were making errors trying to make something happen. I’m more forgiving of a Corey Horsburgh forced pass than I am of Xavier Savage dropping a yardage carry. But the attack has shut up shop in the last two weeks and more errors have resulted (or perhaps been the cause of, let’s not get too in the weeds).

So I don’t think they should be more conservative to preserve possession. Indeed I wish they’d throw a single fucking shot. Tom Dearden was all energy in the second half of Saturday’s game because he’d made eight fucking tackles all game. Maybe Matt Timoko was struggling because he made twice as many tackles as his opposite centre, and more than both Dearden and Purdue combined. And if they could adjust to whatever leniency the referee is allowing in the ruck a little quicker, that would help too.

We knew coming into this year there would be ups and downs for this side. While we got caught up in the hype after two weeks of the best footy they’d played in a long time, two weeks of the worst footy they’ve played in ages has balanced out our hopes and dreams. In the search for sustainability I hope they can right the ship on Thursday. There’s no time to waste.

Do us a further solid and like our page on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, or share this on social media because it keeps me googling productive things. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.