BY DAN

A criticism easily leveled at the Canberra Raiders in recent years is their lack of speed. A combination of factors over many years led to a situation where Canberra’s valuation of power over pace meant that progression up the field was more panzer than panther. But with recent personnel change a new world of attacking opportunity is open to them. Will they take it?

Canberra have had a really straightforward plan in recent seasons. Bash the crap out of the middle field, create so much space that scoring comes. Not so much through well worked moves, or acres of acreage for outside backs to run into, but through a mixture of hook, crook, and everything in between. Teams have loaded up against the middle to stop this, and the chaos ball around it. As Canberra have lost critical players that added width to their attack, and the ability to hit multiple points on the field, adjusting has become increasingly hard.

The magnet that has drawn them to the middle of the ground has only been exacerbated by the people standing on the edges of the play. Jordan Rapana was once a speedster, but in his last few years in the league he’d lost the ability to beat anyone on the outside. Matt Timoko is more short yardage speed and power. As soon as he gets through the line he’s looking for someone else to do the rest of the work. With Seb Kris, and Bert Hopoate more versed in yardage than space, it all had the feel of beating them through contact, rather than around. Xavier Savage stood out because he was so unlike the others.

It all collapsed on itself like a dying star. There was no width because there was no one pushing the ball wide. There was also no one drawing eyes wider. There was less stretch than trying to touch your toes on a cold morning. No winger or centre worried about the Raiders being beaten on the outside, so they could shade in. It made the whole ‘beat them through the middle’ more difficult to implement – ‘win the middle to earn the right to spread it’ is hard when you can’t do either parts of that.

The end result was predictable and in line with the broadly anemic attack. The back three didn’t score proportionally less tries – for most teams it’s around 40 per cent of the tries scored. But their 34 tries scored by back three players in 2024 was near half the Roosters (60), the Storm (54), or the Cowboys (49). It’s a low bar, but what manifest was imperfect.

Those numbers do obscure a change that has been coming to the Milk over the last twelve months. A transition hasn’t yet occured, but the pieces are in place that could foretell it. The addition of Kaeo Weekes at the fullback position brought a degree of pace to the Raiders shifting attacks that just hadn’t been present for years. Suddenly defenders are looking out the back for the pacey weapon that existed there to take any sliver of space offered. That has been a useful addition, and coupled with Xavier Savage the Milk suddenly have two home-run hitters in the backline.

This in itself is a major upgrade, but as pointed out above that’s not enough. But with Savelio Tamale’s emergence in the off-season the Raiders may have a backline balanced towards pace for the first time in a long time. Tamale doesn’t appear to the out-and-out lightening of Savage and Weekes, but when he’s the ‘slowest’ in your back three that’s an unusual situation. Michael Asomua would have been considered ‘quick’ in the back three in recent years. Only Bert Hopoate remains in the ‘exit sets are god’ mode of player, and even he looked more sprightly in pre-season this year.

Does that mean we’re about to unleash an outside in attack? Not if you’ve watched them play in the trials. That’s indicative and not determinative. Even with these weapons there’s no guarantee they’ll ever work out an effective way to utilise them. Canberra have other problems that make it hard to get around teams. Their offence lacks structure, innovation or cohesiveness. They are limited by players in key positions unable to move the defence with their limited passing games. But if there’s pace at the edges it may stretch opponent lines just enough that jobs are made easier across the park. More space in the middle. More opportunities for halves to engage the line. Fewer times that Matt Timoko gets the ball with three defenders in his pocket.

It’s not guaranteed but it’s better than sitting still. Rolling thunder in the middle of the ground isn’t half as fun if you don’t have the lightning bolts to throw alongside. Hopefully what is revealed this Sunday are some new weapons used in interesting ways.

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