BY DAN

As the sun breaks on a new year it’s time to look forward. To face what comes. Chin up, heart full, ready to take on what could be another challenging year in Canberra. We are all here in the hope that one day the Raiders will win a premiership. I look forward to the day that this article starts with me predicting that will occur. I yearn for that actually occurring like children do the mines. We all do.

That’s our lot as Raiders fan at the moment. Our eye level is permanently fixed on tomorrow because that’s the only thing we’ve been promised. It’s a long horizon and it’s time we started mapping it out. We’ve already begun that in a more a conceptual sense here (and here and here and here) but it’s time to put tangible things down on paper.

This isn’t our first rodeo. We’ve been at this for years, hamstrung by a gimmick which made sense the first time. Basing our predictions on the number of years in the millenium is just creating more and more work. It’ll be the end of the blog one day. I’ll just decide 26, or 27 is just too many things. This is already hefty, hefty, hefty.

For what it’s worth, our previous predictions have been OK, as far as ‘bold’ predictions go. For the second year in a row we hit the fifty per cent pass mark. We even got some things ahead of time. Sticky’s extension was probably the most notable. We had some things there that were only lightly bold (Zac Hosking and Ethan Sanders both joining the club in 2024). We were wrong on some depressing things (like Justin Giteau’s presence helping the offence). We were right on some depressing things (like Danny Levi being the starting hooker, or Zac Woolford leaving, or Jordan Rapana not actually retiring). We even smelt out things that we’ve only seen confirmed in rumour and innuendo – I’ll let you choose what that is.

Getting half our predictions right probably means they’re not bold enough. That’s a bit serious for this time of year. So let’s make 2025 the year we ramp this shit up. Let’s get wild and wrong people.

1. Xavier Savage will play State of Origin

Starting with cheating, well done Dan. I say cheating because we’ve said this a bunch of times over the off-season and during last season. But the improvement is undeniable. His yardage running went from problematic to critical. His capacity to turn nothing into something remained. He’s gone from a defensive question mark to an exclamation point. If he can iron out some of the remaining creases (like a team leading 33 errors) he’ll threaten for a spot in a Queensland backline that is all broken old men and lack of certainty.

Oh, bonus prediction that’s not particularly bold – say hi to your 2025 Raiders leading try scorer.

2. Hudson will also play

Do we call this bold? I feel given how Hudson keeps finding it hard to get a foothold in the Origin camp there’s a degree of uncertainty. He proved post Origin, and in the Australian squad at the end of the season that he’s as good as any. There’s a bit of competition around, as there always is for NSW spots, but Huddo keeps getting better each year. I love him and remain flabbergasted how often Raiders fans don’t.

3. Corey Horsburgh career year

This shouldn’t be bold. Corey’s upswing was undeniable in 2023. He should have been ready to take the game by storm in 2024 but well, we all know what happened. I’m on the record saying he’ll have a career year in 2025. So let’s lean in to that. Origin, heroism. Red headed legend. He’ll be all and sundry and the Milk will be glad they managed to get around to having a chat after inexplicably not speaking to him for months because he was sad.

Ok is that not bold enough? Righto then.

4. Corey Horsburgh – Dally M Lock of the Year

Ok this is how we’ll do it. F*ck Isaah Yeoh and his half-decade of class. F*ck Cam Murray and his sublime ball playing skills. F*ck Tino because he’s actually a prop. F*ck Patty Carrigan even with his beautiful locks and leather bound books on psychology.

Big Red is about to school everyone.

That seems bold enough right?

5. The NRLW Raiders will also be deep in Origin.

We’ll also note here that we expect Simaima Taufa, Grace Kemp, Zehara Temara and Sophie Holyman to play Origin too. That’s not particularly bold. Taufa is one of the best to ever do it. Kemp becomes more important every run she takes. Temara moves so fast and slow at the same time that Jason Smith is in awe. And Sophie Holyman, sometimes overlooked because she’s a craftsperson rather than a athletic marvel, is still one of the best middles around the women’s game.

Look this isn’t feeling bold enough. Let’s get a bit more excited.

6. We won’t actually get around to signing a hooker before the season starts

I dunno. Just feels like we would have done it by now. There’s been a cold trail for a while now. I have no idea why.

Unless….

7. Owen Pattie will play from round one

My actual prediction is that Pattie will end the year playing first grade, but that seems pretty self explanatory. Levi is on his way out, Tommy Starling the only other rake is limited in what he does. Canberra really do need some craft close to the ruck. Pattie is still a child but the club seems to think he’s ready. That is if you take their comments about turning down the opportunity to get leveraged by Brandon Smith and Reece Robson at face value.

But that’s not bold enough. Fuck it. Play him from week one. Let Tommy absorb the hard bits, let the kid roll through the middle forty. Give him an experienced middle to play with and Robert’s drinking too much and saying problematic things at Christmas lunch.

8. Ricky won’t get the Dally M Coach of the Year, but he will get a fine

Speaking of problematic things, Stick got through last year relatively unscathed at post game press conferences. You might suggest he’s maturing, or having a young roster might take some pressure off him, and lead to more circumspect post game reactions. I think he’s due like Vesuvius. He’ll burst again. Hopefully it’s more funny than embarrassing.

On the other end of the spectrum, he won’t win coach of the year as Fox Sports is touting. I can see the logic. Low expectations, friendly write ups etc. But there’s always a sexier story than Canberra, particularly in the big market of Brisbane. That’s where I’d be putting my hard earned.

9. Ethan Strange’s bumpy ride

The thing about being a prodigy is that you do some things that are so much better than anyone your age, and make you able to play, and succeed, against professionals. Strange’s running and defensive skills are exactly that. For him to develop into a proper five-eighth he needs reps. But his creating game will take time. It’ll be 2026 before he really starts to find his feet.

In the meantime we’ll just have to put up with elite defensive and solid running from our six.

10. Ethan Strange will have 13 plus try assists

Look I know this is contradictory to the previous part but it makes sense in my head. Getting reps and building skills means more opportunities. Sometimes you’ll get it right and sometimes you’ll get that wrong. We’ve already seen him do it well – witness his twin try-assists to Hudson Young in the Dogs game last season. This year he’ll get more opportunities (hopefully) and turn it into good old fashioned countables. It may also mean more errors, but that’s the learning process.

So not all doom and gloom for Ethan. An upswing from last year’s nine. It’ll be more even Jamal Fogarty’s right foot.

11. Despite this the attack will also be a work in progress

We’ve harped on the mess of it here, but here’s the short version. Canberra’s strengths are in the middle, and they have almost zero ability with their current preferred roster to get wide. That will change over time as Owen Pattie and Ethan Strange evolve, but currently it will remain a challenge. So get used to the bash and barge. The revolution may be coming but it’ll be taking its sweet time.

12. And that means more chaos-ball and chaos wins

Canberra has perfected this in recent years. Beating teams with tries that come from nothing, or everything. Attacking shapes that have are as subtle and nuanced as a pie to the face. Scoring tries through a mixture of pinball and errors. You’d say it’s not sustainable, but it’s sustained us for two, five (ten?) years now. Quick, it’s the last – Corey put a grubber in.

Per Harry Scorse, (the Scorsizzler on twitter) we’ve won more games scoring the same amount or less tries than the opposition than we have scoring more in the last two years. If chaos tries are the method, then chaos wins are the madness that makes fans cry and laugh manically. Would you have it any other way? Of course you would. But at least this way you know you’re alive.

Ok right now this feels more on brand than bold. Let’s ramp it up a bit.

13. Danny Levi won’t finish the season in Canberra

Oh yeah that’s spicy. The favourite topic of my DMs. Most people get their DMs bombarded with abuse, spam or maybe d*ck pics, dependent on the number of X chromosomes you have. I get Danny Levi takes, both positive (about him) and negative (about him, and also about me). So let’s lean in to it, and maybe it’ll change the nature of my DMs (actually, looking at the above list maybe I’m on to a winner here).

I don’t know what this looks like but this is a pretty straightforward pitch. Levi wants an opportunity for a deal somewhere else and he’s currently not a priority at Canberra. Other teams will have injuries at hooker and see him as an opportunity to fill out depth, or more, at a position that is typically scarce in the NRL. They’ll offer him a spot this year and next, and Danny will leave. But Canberra can’t swan about with only one hooker in the top 30. So I think Pattie will be upgraded, and another recruit will be brought in…eventually.

14. Neither will Emre Guler

I dunno. There’s just been too much buzz for too long. It’s a vibe baby. Emre has now been in the same spot since he burst on to the scene in 2018. It’s the seven year itch and Emre is looking for love in Sydney.

15. Three players on the supplemental list will play first grade this year.

Owen Pattie is pretty straightforward. Noah Martin is probably ready too. There’s also a spot at left centre that Seb Kris didn’t exactly make his own last season. Depending on whether Savelio Tamale takes the wing, this could be an opportunity for Manaia Whatere to get a run? That sounds fun.

16. Martin Martin Martin

We are fans of the Martin boys in this squad, particularly the Eden products (just because Eden is truly heaven on earth). There will be one game where they all play. With the two Ethans – probably during the origin period when Horse, Savage and Huddo are off in camp. Easy for the copywriters.

17. Kaeo Weekes will start at fullback

Normally I’d put something here about ‘Chevy Stewart will end the season starting there’ but I’m not really sure. Chevy looked impressive but young last season, and the pre-season assessments had been it was going to be 18 months to two years before he was ready. That’s the end of this season so maybe he’s ready then. But Kaeo showed last season he just needs a chance. I think he’ll take it.

18. Leianne Tufuga….NRLW fullback?

Staring fullback for NRLW is less clear now that Apii Nicholls is gone. They’ve gone and signed an elite outside back in Leianne Tufuga and it means they have three centres and zero fullbacks, the near opposite problem to first grade. My pitch is that they probably got Tufuga to the club on the promise of her getting a shot at fullback. So it’ll be her at the back, with Cheyelle Robins-Reti and Mackenzie Wiki killing it at the centres again.

Oh and for one more year at least, Shak Tungai will end some fools. Call it a bonus prediction.

19. Vegas will claim someone

I can’t decide if it’s the weird dimensions of the field, the unending capacity for vice, or maybe even a superstar turn, but I think someone will find their career altered by the experience. Shit Canberra players find it hard enough to get around Belconnen without getting into trouble. Let’s hope it’s someone on the other teams and the Raiders renowned ‘interactions’ with the cops don’t need to go international.

20. Over/under on Josh Papalii articles is 4.5 and i’m taking the over

Did you know it’s going to be his last year? Not only do I refuse to believe this but I’m not ready for it. I hate it. I love him. Build him a goddamn statue already. Failing that someone carve his face on the penis owl so he can stand proud over his domain.

21. Ata Mariota break out year

Ata has been threatening for a while now. Fits and starts. The impending arrival of Leo Thompson will spur him on to greater heights, as will the fact he doesn’t have to keep covering dual duty of edge forward coverage. A clearer role, a bigger battle. Ata has always struck me as a hard worker and a technician. He just needs a bit of bull about him. I think this year he produces.

22. Savelio Tamale will end the season as a starter

Brock Shepperd, Raiders assistant coach spoke of his game plan for the Dragons when the NSW Cup Raiders played them last year: keep it away from Savelio. Tamale had 235 running metres (68 on kick returns), 109 post contact, 9 tackle breaks, and chaos sewn like Loki was bored.

23. Matty Nicholson will start from the get go

I think this is a testament to his work ethic and how good he already is. I also think it speaks to Zac Hosking’s utility as bench coverage for basically half the forward back and the some outside back as well.

24. Leo Thompson will come, come early and come hard.

Oh yeah.

I think Leo is coming to town. I think they’ll eventually decide he should just come immediately. I assume it will require a player swap. I don’t know what that is – Emre Guler wants to go to Sydney which Newcastle isn’t. Danny Levi wants to play first grade and the Knights already have Brailey and Crossland. But somehow they’ll work it out.

And that means we’ll have the sickest pack in the competition.

25. No finals in 2025

Sorry people. I know it’s been a while since we’ve missed finals in back to back years (17-18 for those counting). But there’s too much riding on our young spine, and emerging outside backs to make it work. That’s OK. There’s good things ahead, just the build is for another tomorrow.

Let’s just have a good year. Be safe out there.

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