BY DAN

Remember time the Raiders snagged an international representative entering their prime, through a prolonged competition for the signature?

No?

Well, ladies, gentleman, and assorted lunatic rugby league fans, they’ve done it. They’ve just gone out there and signed the in-demand Leo Thompson. According to the Mole (which, fair if that concerns you), Leo has told his team mates at Newcastle he’s moving to god’s country. The reasons given aren’t football (his partner is from Canberra) but if lifestyle choices can draw people to Bondi or Brisbane, then they’re allowed to bring them to Belconnen too.

I’ve been clear that this wasn’t how I would spend the Raiders spare cash if there were other options. Nor did I really ever think this was going to happen. But it is hard to argue with the recruitment process that led to getting an international forward at just 24. The details are sparse at the moment. But so far it sounds like four years from 2026. While one might be tempted to not believe the Mole (which, again, very reasonable), the timing of this, half way through the 10 day cool-down period, suggests this is the situation. Without something dramatic happening Canberra and Leo will be getting on that floating door together.

People will talk that it’s too much money – by all reports it’s something around $800k a season. That is an astounding amount for a prop that is only proven to be very good. He cracks out decent metres, is a sound defender and gets through big minutes. That’s important to have, but that kind of money would mean Thompson is basically starting as the Milk’s second-highest paid middle behind Joey Tapine, and put him in the pay bracket usually reserved for the best. Leo wasn’t top 20 among middles in metres last season. He had the 7th most missed tackles from a prop. He’s probably not worth the big money right now, but given his age there’s still plenty of room to grow.

Projecting a trajectory of his improvement in the last few years is a dangerous game but the key thing is the Raiders will be getting his best years. The back end of the 20s are the best for middles (as shown here by the handsomest rugby league stats analysis at the Rugby League Eye Test) Canberra are paying max money for Leo, potentially too much. But by getting him for this period of his life they’re making sure that the differences between outlay and output are minimal.

You might note that Canberra has to overpay to get in-demand free agents but that’s entirely theoretical. The Milk don’t usually sign players where there is such a competition (unless they haven’t played first grade yet). So saying they had to pay overs to get Thompson because that’s how it is ignores that ‘overs’ doesn’t even usually get them anything. Shit sometimes overpaying to keep players doesn’t even work (hi Jack, how is Sydney?).

So while it’s worth noting the opportunity cost and what might have been if they’d spent that money on a big name hooker, the fact may be there was snagging Leo, or there was nothing. And putting Leo together with Corey, Joseph (go the Raptors) is simply too mouthwatering to pass up. As we said recently, Thompson spent a good chunk of last season playing near or more than 50 minutes a game. That means there’s only sixty or seventy minutes of game time for props outside that trio. Add Morgan Smithies to that (if you are that way inclined) and you have so many ways that you can now use your bench. Rick might pick four hookers.

It does tinge the potential acquisition of Thompson with a splash of disappointment in terms of what it means for the club’s faith in the current crop. Does this mean Ata Mariota isn’t the second coming of Papalii? Does it mean Mooney isn’t going to be tearing middles up? I assume, as we said earlier in the off-season, this all but guarantees Emre Guler’s departure. I also hope it doesn’t mean Canberra lean into only being massive and nothing else. They need still a hooker that can pass. They still need the ability to get outside the middle third of the field.

But now’s not the time for nit-picking. A big name acquisition is so rare for the Milk it should be applauded. The only remaining question is when does he come? All reporting has focused on the 2026 season as Thompson’s arrival date. Perhaps if Guler is sent back (or maybe Mooney? Don’t do it Stick) there will be a capacity to make it happen before the 2025 season. Shit it’s not even Christmas. This time last year we were thinking we might be snagging Zac Hosking for 2025. Time moves fast and feelings change. We might not have to wait for 2026 .

In which case this is the best kind of Christmas present. Oooh a new international player for the Raiders? How did you know?

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