BY DAN

And then there were two.

The Canberra Raiders are one of the remaining sides in the Leo Thompson race. This comes after the Knights’ prop rejected his home town side in favour of going external. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, Thompson has rejected Newcastle’s offer and is set to go global.

From the outset this news upends our previous assumptions about this negotiation. We had believed that this was about Leo enjoying the advantages of making his home town pay full rate rather than get a team discount. Leverage Canberra and the Dogs, get big money. Live the Raider Raise dream. At this stage this appears wrong. While a rejection doesn’t mean the end of a discussion it’s hardly a good sign. 10 day cool off be damned. All indications are now that Thompson is going elsewhere.

For what it’s worth Canberra are now the front runners. While this is usually a dubious distinction, in fact from the reporting it’s probably underselling it. The Raiders are the only team outside of the Knights that have made him an offer. Not only that, but they’ve made him a ‘big money offer’. What’s more is that the ‘other’ team interesting, the Dogs, haven’t. So for the 10 day cool off to be engaged (again, as the Herald’s report suggests) that means Leo is choosing between Canberra and a Knights deal he just rejected. Maybe the Knights match the Milk’s money. Maybe they aren’t able to. What happens behind closed doors is only clear when the participants and outcomes emerge.

Canberra are doing their best to make it happen. It’s hard to assess if they’re proposing to pay too much for him based on rumours, hearsay and social media posts. But the deal with getting people to come to the nation’s capital is paying them more than their worth. Pay them more than their currently worth as a bet they’ll be worth more later. To extract the value you need the back end surplus production.

It’s hard to know if Thompson can outrun his coverage in that regard without knowing the value of contract. But he is just 24 and entering his prime. But big money, whatever it may be, for a good middle (as opposed to a brilliant one) isn’t efficient use of money. There’s simply too many decent props out there to not think you could put together the same production from three kids in an overcoat.

Canberra should know – they have plenty of those kids to stack on top of each other. Choosing Leo over them also suggests a consideration of imperfect development or production. That’s not something we’d considered before now. Leo may be ready to take Josh Papalii’s mantle at the end of the year and the others may not. But it does tinge the potential acquisition of Thompson with a splash of disappointment in terms of what it means for the club’s faith in the current crop.

And it does mean that precious roster spots that should be spent on getting a hooker, or an outside back, is being spent on a middle. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. If the choice is Leo Thompson or a replacement level rake then the choice is easy. Canberra’s cap situation is always seems to take on a slightly different shape to other teams, so they tend to overpay at positions that others don’t, and underpay at spots that others max. But if the choice was Leo Thompson or Reece Robson (which, to be fair, I don’t actually think it is), then this is a less than perfect outcome.

But that doesn’t make this a bad deal. The Raiders would unquestionably be getting a quality prop, and putting him into a lineup with Taps and Horse makes for a mouthwatering middle rotation. Thompson spent a good chunk of last season playing near or more than 50 minutes a game. That means there’s only sixty or seventy minutes of game time for props outside that trio. That’s not a lot, and means the Raiders would have higher performers on the field for longer, and more flexibility in how they use their bench.

They would also be competing, and winning, the chase for an in-demand free agent. That is frankly a stunning outcome. The last time they did that depends on your definition of ‘in-demand’, but safe to say it’s not a very common occurrence. Is Canberra now a destination for free agents? I don’t think so. One swallow doesn’t make a summer after all. But consider an eye brow raised, a chest puffed out and a heart swollen with a sneaky bit of pride. Should this actually happen of course.

If it does happen, I would also suggest it might happen earlier than 2026. Getting an offer that is so out of your tree can make anyone want to change stumps. It worked for Zac Hosking. The Knights may take the view that they may as well get moving on tomorrow than build with bad blood in the system. That wouldn’t really change my view of Canberra’s ceiling for 2025, but it certainly changes the level of the floor boards. But alas, we’re getting ahead of ourselves.

And we end up where we started. It’s a two horse race and the Raiders are clomping like a motherfucker. Canberra are a good chance, a better chance than we thought. Leo Thompson may come (back) to town.

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