BY DAN

Here’s the problem: Canberra’s attack has been stuck for a few years now.

Outside of a rare burst of excitement at the end of 2022 (and maybe intermittently at the beginning of 2024), they’ve been a bad attack getting worse.

When they took the league by the bocce in 2019, we all pointed to the defence. But they matched that with an exemplary attack – fourth best in the league. Since then it’s been a big downhill. Sixth best in 2020. 10th and 8th over 2021 and 22. Then 13th most point in 2023, before 15th in 2024. In a quantum sense the change is marginal. In 2019 they averaged 21.8 points a game. In 2024 it was 19.75. Call it a plateau and I wouldn’t complain. The most they’ve averaged in the intervening period was 2020’s 22.25.

What stands out is the gap between that 20ish points a game and what is needed to be elite. Between 2019 and 2024 precisely two teams have made the grand final averaging less than 25 points a game: the Raiders in 2019, and the Panthers in 2024 (a sixth best 24.2 a game).

If that’s a pass-mark to be a contender, Canberra have rarely met it. In 2022 they averaged 27 points a game over the back end of the season after Zac Woolford joined the squad at magic round and they put burgers on both the Tigers and the Sea-Eagles. He’s no longer a Raider. In 2024 they managed 25.7 points a game over the first six rounds of the season with a healthy Jamal Fogarty and Zac Hosking, and a coach that trusted their young five-eighth to play his actual position. It was not replicated in the back of the season after Fogarty returned (160 points over the last eight games).

There’s a lot of inputs here. Obviously personnel have changed over time. Josh, Jack and Aidan became Jack, Tom and George became Jamal, Danny and Ethan Strange when Dad lets him out to play. But Canberra have managed good periods under every personnel phase. There’s also been coaching change too, as one would expect over the length of time. Brett White and Andrew McFadden have notably left from the 2019 vintage, Mick Crawley has come back. The game has changed too, with Peter V’landys regime being less focused than a toddler with a stick and a dream.

Changing players is inevitable, sadly. And Vlando is going to Vlando. But there have been two constants through this period: Canberra’s playing style and the Ricky Stuart. These two are obviously linked. The Raiders have adopted an approach less driven by structured play are more defined by winning contact, dumping offloads, and getting great athletes in place to beat their defender one on one. There was a brief period at the beginning of 2022 where this was altered to bring Elliott Whitehead into 13 to give the side more passing through the middle. This was abandoned after four or five games, after injuries to Jamal Fogarty and Josh Hodgson kinda ruined the whole vibe, man.

The output should be enough to tell the attacking approach hasn’t worked. But even at a ‘opportunity’ level it hasn’t panned out. Think about the last time you saw Matt Timoko running at a line without two defenders watching. It doesn’t happen. And so last season Canberra created the least line breaks (94 – nearly half the Storm created), the lowest line engagements (526 – again nearly half the Cows who had the most), the second fewest passes in general play, and the equal fewest try-assists (with the wooden-spooning Tigers). All this while having the second highest dummy half runs, and the fifth highest completion rate. We’ve often harped on the need for better width but that’s only part of the solution. Introducing new, more and varied structures into a cohesive attack is a fundamental starting point.

So if your personnel is changing, and our output and process aren’t getting the job done, strategy needs to change and the only place to look for that is the coaching staff. Ricky Stuart is a constant and responsible for this. I’ve seen him speak plenty of the need to be patient with the youth, but less on the need to revamp the offence.

Also responsible for improvement in this area is Mick Crawley. the assistant we understand has the most influence over the attack. We’d welcomed his return as someone involved in, or at the helm of multiple periods of Canberra attacking success (such as the 2016 model). But he’s been unable to arrest a decline that began before he arrived. His one innovation to our eyes in this time was the adoption of Elliott Whitehead as a passing middle. This was abandoned before it was really ever given a time to take hold.

The Raiders have never really stuck with that as a concept – ask Hohepa Puru – since. Other innovations have failed to follow. Without being able to see into the coaching room it’s hard to know how ideas are shared or developed. Maybe Crawley is a misunderstood genius. Maybe Sticky is holding him back. These extremes are simplistic, and likely individualise what appears to be something caked into the approach. There are other voices in this room too. One presumes all are aware of the need for improvement.

It’s no small task. This is a problem that has been built over many years and are unlikely to be solved immediately. Maybe the overhaul of personnel and impertinence of youth will be enough. Maybe there will be innovation again. Ricky Stuart is a constant, but will he seek new voices to help him mould a way forward? However it’s pursued, it’s clear change is needed.

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