BY DAN

For the best part of six weeks rumours have been floating around that the Canberra Raiders were interested in Knights prop Leo Thompson.

Well, not even rumours. More bits of rumours. Like a story being told by a toddler. There’s a general gist of ‘maybe the former Raider is coming’ home, but the why’s and whens and hows were not really clear. Leo was on a deal with the Knights, who are pushing a host of players out in an apparently salary cap based purge. Why would their best performed middle in 2024 also be on the cutting floor?

Thanks to David Polkinghorne’s tireless work, we finally have a bit of clarity of what is going on here. Thompson’s current deal with the Knights is currently do to reach it’s conclusion at the end of 2025, and as such he’s on the market for 2026 from 1 November this year.The Raiders seem to have pitched the spot on potentially replacing Josh Papalii after his current deal expires on the same timeline.

At face value it makes sense. Thompson was arguably the Knights best middle in 2024. An always bruising, and occasionally rampaging runner, he had the ability to physically overwhelm that any decent prop will have. He always seemed to be someone the Raiders had trouble controlling, perhaps reflective of a bit more effort against his former club. The statistics aren’t overwhelming but do support the idea he’s a quality middle, but not yet a star. Among props across the league he was 24th in metres, 18th in tackle busts, 10th in tackles (but 7th most missed tackles).

At just 24, he’s about to enter his prime as a middle. That’s a key part of this discussion. He’s already proven himself a first grade quality, and is trusted to get through near 50 minutes of work a game. His stats on the way up are actually are just below Papalii, the man he’d theoretically be replacing, on the way down. They’re also beyond any current Raiders middle outside of Joey Taps and arguably Corey Horsburgh, potentially inserting him high up a depth chart that is bustling with younger talent.

He’s done all this despite being a late switch to league (from union), admitting that as recently as 2022 that he was still learning the game. If this is his floor over the life time of the deal then this is a ride worth getting on now. I’ve linked to this piece from the Rugby League Eye Test so many times of the years it feels ridiculous to point it out again, but these really would be the salad days of a Thompson deal.

As read Rick T pointed out the Milk are strong in the middle and there’s an opportunity cost in blowing our wad on a position we’ve been historically strong. Hooker is obvious and being pursued (Walker, Brailey, Paix). Outside back is another. Let’s assume for now that there’s more than one recruitment option being pursued at the moment.

If the Raiders don’t need to pay an arm and a leg then this deal makes plenty of sense. As to whether this will happen, well, we hardly can tell. The article in the Canberra Times seemed to built off a conversation with the Milk. Other pieces (such as this from Fox) do seem to paint a more ‘two-way’ interest. The Knights are unlikely to let the future of their middle forwards come home, and nor are other clubs like the Dogs (also rumoured to be interested) just going to let Canberra snag a deal.

Given the timing of this it’s hard not to think this will end up a Raider Raise, helping Thompson get a bigger deal from his new home before he hits the open market in November. But given this discussion has apparently been ongoing in Newcastle since July, well…I’m a little more hopeful.

However you feel it would take a brave person to pencil this one in. All that’s really clear is that from 26 that Leo Thompson will be getting paid more than the $320k he’s currently on. We’ll find out over the next six weeks if it will be in Canberra.

Shouts to Rob for the title. If you haven’t already like the page on Facebook,  follow me,  Rob, or Viv on Twitter, or share this on social media and I’ll tell you my favourite whiskey (it’s Lagavulin, the Cognac of whiskey). Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not. Feature image courtesy of AAP.