BY DAN

It’s been a bit of a time hey?

Chaos on the field has been matched by change off it. First it was the Horse had bolted. Then it emerged that the Raiders might be selling their land on Levi island. Emre Guler is going, but maybe staying, it kinda depends on when compassion strikes. Deals are being offered to Xavier Savage and Kaeo Weekes. Adam Cook wants to stay, Jordan Rapana wants two years, and the lack of news around Hohepa Puru is the only thing keeping hope afloat. I’m probably sticking around, but that’s only because there’s not much of a market for a middle aged man with a more questionable turn of phrase than the Marquis de Sade.

Is that everything? I think we have it all right now.

We’ve addressed the Horse and Levi situations already. At this stage we’re curious how many places this opens in the top 30. One option is that it only opens up one spot in Canberra’s top 30, as the club might upgrade Owen Pattie to the top 30 as cover for Levi. I’m not sure if he’s ready to be a first grader next year (he’s only playing bit part minutes in Cup footy now) but it seems that’s where their long term aim is going, so it makes sense. Adrian Trevilyan, who recently had shoulder surgery (again, goddammit, someone fire up Hurt) will likely be on a supplemental deal. Maybe Pattie is too.

Horse going would definitely open up a spot in the top 30 roster. That could be two if the club lets Emre Guler leave too, acquiescing to his requested compassionate release. They seem reluctant to let both go, just because it’s better to have the safety of experience, and probably because there’s too many uncertainties elsewhere in the roster. If Hep Puru staying? Is Pasami Saulo’s back ok? Are the young fellas coming through ready for first grade minutes immediately?

So back to our unending task of trying to work just how many roster spots the Raiders have. Based on departures for Horse and Levi I now think Canberra have 27 players signed up for 2025. That includes Hohepa Puru and Emre Guler. So even with the youth signed up that’s as many as five new spots to fill for 2025. And that’s before we work out what is likely happening with Corey Harawira-Naera. It turns out that’s a fair bit of roster change. Horse, Levi, Cotric, Whitehead, Woolford, potentially Guler, Puru, Rapana will all be off the top 30 at the end of the year.

With that much change occurring we’re really glad to hear the club are reaching out early to do deals with both Xavier Savage and Kaeo Weekes. Savage is an absolute no brainer. His talent has been clear for years and we’ve just been waiting for him to put it together. In 2024 he’s been tough as well as fast, and is quietly maturing into an elite winger. If he can reduce the amount of errors he makes, and maybe get a bit more opportunities in attack outside yardage, he could really turn some heads going forward. A long-term deal makes plenty of sense.

In terms of Weekes this is more curious. Offering him an extension seems more likely good insurance for the bumpy development of other players. The club has plenty invested in Chevy Stewart but his experience in first grade this year suggests he might not be ready to be the every-down fullback in 2025. That’s ok – he’s basically a child. But Weekes was already signed on for 2025. Is the view that Stewart won’t be ready in 2026? That surprises me.

Regardless, having Weekes to cover in case that outcome eventuates is better than not. He’s proven in recent weeks that he’s up to first grade quality at fullback. His defence is improving, he’s safe under the high ball, and his turn of pace is critical if underutilised. He offers backup at six, and to a lesser extent, seven, as needed. He’s unquestionably talented and with enough investment there’s no reason he couldn’t create more of a positional controversy at any position he gets plenty of time at. Extending him a year or two at relatively team-friendly prices would be good business.

After that the Raiders have somewhere between three to six positions to fill out. I’ll be interested to see how the club approaches that. There are clear needs at hooker and outside back. The club will also seek to sign middles because they collect them like I collect sighs from my partner. Given the youth focus of the club I’m curious if this results in some risk mitigation (i.e. a few old heads) or a doubling down.

In terms of the hooker position it’s possible a bigger role goes to Owen Pattie as we noted earlier. He’s been flagged as a hooker of the future. But expecting someone who is a sometimes player in Cup footy to make a significant impact as part of the top 30 next season is unlikely. So even if they upgrade him, they’ll still be in the market.

My interpretation of Stuart’s recent comments about Adrian Trevilyan’s recent surgery is that the club remains high on him, just not his surgery. My hope is that this positivity will keep him at the Milk but it seems most likely to be on a supplemental deal. Zac Woolford would be perfect depth but given how the Raiders have treated him like I treat my body (by flinging Doritos at it haphazardly? No I just mean poorly) I would be surprised if he stays. But a man can hope, because I don’t see a bunch of options in free-agency that will suffice until Pattie is sufficiently aged or Trevilyan healed. Could lead Danny Levi back to the club? I’m not ruling it out.

For outside backs I’m fairly certain Jordan Rapana will stay. That two year deal in Super League has been dangling there for ages, and my guess is the only reason he mentions it is because he’d love for Canberra to give him similar security. I don’t think he’ll get it, but I do think he’ll stick around next year. That’s a big deal for the Milk, because they’ve lost much of their depth in the area. Salevio Tamale promises to be exciting, Michael Asomua ascends to the top 30 next year, Manaia Whatere has looked good in Cup footy recently, but again risk mitigation may be in order here. Rapana would be exactly that, which may be the first time in human history Jordan Rapana has been described as the ‘safe’ choice.

This is particularly the case if the experiment of turning Simi Sasagi into a backrower continues. The Raiders would surely kill for another centre option. At the moment their depth at the position behind Seb Kris and Matt Timoko would be Bert Hopoate, Tamale or Rapana. When you head to the market it doesn’t seem like there are any enticing options, and let’s be frank, any free agents are being signed by the seemingly unending caps at St George and Canterbury. Canberra have shown in recent years that they’re keen to target fringe first graders to fill their depth positions and but even targets of their ‘type’ like Jeral Skelton are being snapped up.

If the Raiders are going to go external in the search for big boys the only scuttlebutt to make it to the papers was a desire to test the waters with former Raider Leo Thompson. That makes sense if you’ve had plenty of experienced middles walk out the door. It’s hard not to see that chase in the context of the departure of Horse, and the potential departure of Emre. I can’t help but wonder if the debate is less “Emre or Leo” and more if we get Leo then Emre can leave. I guess we’ll have to wait and see how realistic that is.

With all that said the only guarantee I’m giving you is that the Raiders will sign Adam Cook. He is Ricky Stuart’s new Archer (as in the TV show I’ve watched all the way through 18 times because we all get sad some times), a rich man’s Matt Frawley, a poor man’s five-eighth. He’s earned an NRL contract, and so I have no problem, in a vacuum, with him being included in the top 30. And if the club has decided Kaeo Weekes’ future is exclusively at one, or Ethan Strange as a centre (kill me now) then it’s ok to have Cook in the 30. But if the club sees Weekes as backing up Strange, or Strange backing up Cook, and Sanders backing up Fogarty, then we have five halves in our top 30. This is precisely the kind of imbalance built into the squad through their previous obsession with collecting dummy-halves.

It’s an interesting time for the club. They’ve largely completed their retention process, and a phase of recruitment (by the way of England). The next phase of recruitment is about to begin.

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