BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders 20-18 victory was a stay of execution. In need of confidence, smart footy and most of all two points, they got all of the last and marginal amounts of the rest. They were better with the return of Jamal Fogarty and Zac Hosking. But they were still haunted by the ghosts they’ve raised over the last month or so. They need more than work, they need a renovation. That labour has begun but this game proved the job wouldn’t be a quick one.

It had been 48 days since the last so any victory should be appreciated. Two points were the bare minimum if the Milk were serious about keeping their season alive. They were blessed by a Warriors team whose form was only marginally better than their own. That team had no Tohu Harris, no Shaun Johnson, no Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. That same team then lost a fullback and a centre during the game, played the second half with second-rowers at centre and middles at second row, and didn’t play one of their bench. They should have been stomped. Canberra couldn’t find a way.

But for a moment that didn’t last long the Milk were back baby. Playing with confidence, shape and pace. The middles were rolling. The back five looked revitalised. The belly bombs were tormenting their opposition, more than once ‘flipping the field’ from bad field position to good. In attacking ball they were throwing shifts that had only been seen sporadically in the months since Fogarty was injured. It was pleasing.

Two tries came in the first ten minutes, both on the back of the kind of movements that good sides routinely beat the Milk with. The first a straight up shift that put Seb Kris one-on-one with his opponent close to the line. The cavalry stopped Seb but the collapsing defence allowed Hudson Young to stroll in one pass back from whence they came. The next try was a version of the same, only instead of the pass going out the back Fogarty played the ‘face’ ball and Young’s previously injured groin looked borderline sprightly hot-stepping through the line at pace to score. Both were fast movements, bodies in motion, passes hitting chests, not a doubt to be seen.

These were the highlights but there were other more structural moments to enjoy. The middle did their job. Joe Tapine (18 for 196m, 83 post contact, two tackle breaks) was brilliant for the entirety of the game. No better was this displayed than by his desperate and powerful run in the 78th minute of the game. Canberra just needed to get down the other end to ensure victory, and Taps did what he does best: hit the ball at pace, got into the line, and dragged them halfway to Tuggeranong. He was ably supported by Josh Papalii (14 for 130m) who outside of two galling handling errors was good as always. The back five had their power back too. Matt Timoko’s shoulder got the rest it needed and he and Xavier Savage in particularly were brilliant in yardage.

On the back of this the Raiders were able to get to their generally good kicking game, or throw more cohesive attacking moments that they’ve shown in a long time. There were more good moments than the tries. Fogarty’s return seemed to give the Raiders multiple options across the park. He and Strange were flexible, finding themselves on both sides of the ruck, playing with freedom and generally looking like they were connected. It’s been a while.

If Strange and Fogarty were separated, Weekes found himself at second receiver and always looked a threat. On occasion he was even the third ball player in the line, allowing the Milk to shift wider without having to commit to an option. It also allowed them to play to him on the blind, such as on the game-winning(ish) try, where Kaeo kicked perfectly for Xavier Savage. This took advantage of a defence that had loaded up expecting the ball to go to the other side of the field.

When it was functioning the Raiders’ attack looked every part what we had hoped. Fast. Powerful. Capable of getting it’s edge runners the ball in space rather than just being used as wooden batting rams against concrete walls. Not quite scary but man it looked like a proper footy team. Alas despite those good signs, and with a familiar game plan easily implementable, Canberra could still not keep it all together.

And it wasn’t because their opposition pulled them apart. This was an inside job, as so many have been this season. Canberra just made errors. Pick your favourite style and they played it. Dropped ball, pushed passes, bad end-of-set options. Penalties to get their opposition off their own line, infringements to give them longer to spend in the Raiders’ twenty. Fogarty even kicked a ball out on the full. Other weeks similar periods have been depressing. Knowing that they could actually play a bit of footy given the chance made this infuriating.

Of their first nine sets in the second half, two ended with a regular kick and defend. There were five handling errors, two penalties, a set-restart, and one seven-tackle set in between. The Warriors scored two tries during this mess, both directly after errors. There was a similar period in the first half, coming right after the Raiders had established a dominant 14-0 lead. Between the 25th minute and the 37th minute the Milk had one set end the way they wanted. The others ended with handling or kicking errors, everything culminating with a try that brought a game to life that Canberra should have killed in that period.

It was revealing of a mindset that may take some time to get out of. Some of these errors were just players overplaying their hand in positions they weren’t used to. Timoko and Starling both got pass-happy when they didn’t need to, almost like puppies let loose in a dog-park for the first time. They just weren’t used to the space, the freedom, and the options. But others weren’t even positive. Just cold drops when Canberra didn’t need them. Penalties to gift field position the Raiders knew they couldn’t defend. They’ve spent twelve weeks without Fogarty getting in their own way. This was just proof that they could do it with him too.

It was also indicative of a defence that while hearty, isn’t capable of defending this array of mistakes. Matt Timoko couldn’t get off his line after one shift and Mitch Barnett got to crash over. Zac Hosking had his eyes out when the try-scoring machine Addin Fonua-Blake was coming inside towards the try line. Ethan Strange couldn’t handle Roger Tuivasa-Shek at pace close to the line. Xavier Savage panicked when two defenders and two attackers should have canceled each other out (notably Timoko’s contact didn’t help).

There were plenty of good moments in defence. Joe Tapine seemed to make a heap of critical tackles helping inside out. Tom Starling was exemplary again, making 55 tackles and simply refusing to be cowed by a bigger opposition. Ethan Strange, Jamal Fogarty, and Matt Timoko were smart and disciplined for the most part despite being the prime targets of their opposition. The Raiders have developed adequate, maybe even good defenders and defensive structures. But they are not capable of standing up to the pressure their alter egos put them under.

In the end the Warriors scored more tries than Canberra, and it took their backup kicker going oh-for-three including a straight up choke at the end to give the Milk victory. Whatever your feelings of the good things the Raiders did, scoring less tries and winning is about as sustainable as Bundy and cigarettes for breakfast.

It was victory of a kind. Not a celebration of rebirth or vitality, but more like the feeling you have when you get through a particularly awful week at work. Pour a drink, stare at the wall. Hope that Ruby Fields can convince you even if the whisky can’t. Wait for Monday and start again. Sisyphus would be proud, if not a little frustrated the stone is rolling back because the Raiders got distracted by something shiny.

This didn’t kill their season but it also didn’t revive it. As much as it offered the hope that the boys were back – see the first ten minutes – it offered as much proof that the problems they have baked into the operating model cannot be overcome with just the reintroduction of Jamal Fogarty. It does gift them another week, another moment, to flush whatever malfunction is holding them back mentally. To find a way to avoid, or escape, the thirty odd minutes where they are barely professional grade. To embrace advantage rather than panic in space. To find the sweet spot between overplaying their hands to literally trying nothing at all. To not simply walk out onto the log like they’re Billy in Predator.

There is a good footy team hiding amongst this rubble. I saw it those first ten minutes, like we saw it on occasion in March. But the legacy of this season, and in particular the last month means they’re broken, and it seems it’ll take more than a week to fix it. This gives them not so much breathing space as another chance at the same. They’re not back. But they’re not gone.

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