BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders, losers of four on the trot and in a hole that would make Dale Kerrigan proud, need a victory. Better performances haven’t been victories, and more underscored how poor what came before them was. There’s a memory of a better side and that may return post bye when Jamal Fogarty and Zac Hosking will return, per the Canberra Times. Will it be enough to turn around a season?

Before Jamal Fogarty left the ground at halftime in the Broncos game in round seven the Canberra Raiders were averaging 25.7 points a game and conceding 17.7 points a game. Three of their four wins had come by more than 12 points, including a 41 point dismantling of the Eels. Replicated through the season those 26 points for and 18 against would be elite, better in attack and defence than the first placed Storm and pretty much the entirety of the top 8 (outside of the Roosters in attack, and the Panthers in defence).

Even the smart numbers people were wondering if they were good. They were winning field position, a mix of the impact of their kicking game and an effective defence. They were putting themselves into the position to dominate games. Matt Timoko and Xavier Savage were routinely leading the competition in metres over expected. They were even playing with more width than almost any other club.

Bruh.

Even their losses take on a rosy tinge in hindsight. The 36-22 loss against the Sharks was frustrating at the time but the 40-0 loss suffered on the other side of the Fogarty/Hosking injury break was much worse. Canberra pushed the then healthy and still maybe really good Warriors and only really got found out in a first half blitz in which the Broncos played the kind of footy that makes believers out of cynics. But Fogarty went down at halftime in that game, Hosking in the next.

It put a lid on the team. There was a brief taste of ‘ease’ in those early weeks, something that hadn’t been familiar to this side out of two weeks at the back end of 2022 when they put 50 on two teams (the Tigers and the Sea-Eagles) whose minds were elsewhere. The victory over the Eels was a good team frogstomping a bad one.

In the 9 games that followed Fogarty’s injury (so excluding the Broncos game) the Raiders averaged 16.7 points, and conceded an average 29.7, winning three games with a highest margin of victory of four points. Every success has come with a draining emotional energy, a need to push above and beyond, to cover for every mistake and twist of fortune to find a way to eek out the most meagre of victory. Post Bye II (the return of the grindmen) it’s felt even more hopeless. That the highpoint was a couple of close losses displayed the depravity and despondency in which the team had slipped into. It turned what had been a pretty good position into a five alarm chilli. Time to wax up people.

It’s important at this juncture to recognise two things. Firstly that 2024 is not Canberra’s plan. This was always a team that has consistently said it was building for tomorrow, giving youth time to develop, build and learn lessons that will set them strong for success on the morrow. Putting Kaeo Weekes at halfback for a long period will likely make him a better footballer in the long term. The time Ethan Strange spent trying to make dinner out of a packet of spaghetti and a bowl of fruit will make him even more effective both for when he’s no longer head chef now, and when he’s king of the kitchen in a few years time.

Secondly the faults of 2024 do not lie exclusively, or even mostly, with the least experienced. The strength of the side – a rock-and-rolling middle – has been at best fine and on occasion disappoint, particularly in defence. They’ve missed Zack Hosking on the edge, and forced ageing players into roles weight of roles their bodies simply aren’t up for anymore. Jordan Rapana has been asked to do more and more and more until we found the edge of the world where his mania goes from weapon to weakness. In short young dudes have had bad moments but old dudes have been just as hazy.

Fogarty and Hosking are now available for selection per Coach Stuart. We’ve seen how well the club has responded to having a out-and-out halfback in the 7 jumper through the performance of Adam Cook. Fogarty is just that and brings even more: Organisation, an ability to create on the right edge, create width, free up Strange and Weekes and others to play their more natural games. Belly bombs! We’ve seen the free possessions that good kicks have gotten against the Milk in recent weeks. It will be nice to turn the tables.

Time will tell if that first six weeks of footy was a mirage. It’s a lot to put on Fogarty (and Hosking). They will provide a lot of things but they alone can’t fix everything. Right now they’re like parents coming home to a teenage house party. Is the mess cleanable or is that stain going to be on the couch as a reminder of the sin of those that stayed behind (sorry Mum)? Is Jamal just going to be the rugby league Winston Wolf and make right what went wrong? It doesn’t feel fair to put it on one man. Even Zac Hosking, Dally M leader in the early goings, can’t be expected to simply fix the core issues this club holds dear.

But man, it’s hard not to think back to those heady days of March, the leaves still in their place, the sun still in the sky, and our hearts still fluttering at the possibility of more. We hope. We wish. We yearn. But maybe that was a point in time, a draw-infused ambush (so-to-speak) on a competition that didn’t expect competency.

No one will be surprised now, and everyone has everything to play for. I’m not going to play ladder predictor but finals feels like it will require five wins from their last seven. Many of those games involve people similarly obsessed with making the eight, including games against the Roosters and Panthers, the flying Bunnies and the fifth placed Dogs. Yeah, a bit difficult.

The quest becomes harder, even with reinforcements.

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