BY DAN

Canberra’s ongoing project to reshape it’s roster has been a process of imperfect information. At least from the outside we’ve been watching as they added a heap of youth, which while admirable, put them close to the full top 30 for 2025. In the meantime key questions about off-contract players had yet to be resolved.

The last week or so has both clarified, and added to the mystery of the situation. Emre Guler reportedly asked out to be closer to family in Sydney. That makes sense to a degree but one wonders if he’d be so keen to leave if there was a more obvious path to first grade minutes. The club has made commitments to Trey Mooney, Morgan Smithies, Myles Martin, Ata Mariota and Corey Horsburgh through 2027 and Pasami Saulo through 2026. We’ve said this before in regards to the dance for Trey Mooney (picture Ben Stiller in ‘Along Came Polly’) that middles were eventually going look at the logjam and want out. Guler may be first to walk.

Joining him on the path out is Nic Cotric. Nic is a Canberra boy made good, and is heading to the south of France to ply his trade for good money. When you put it like that it sounds like a sweet freaking deal. It’s been weird to see Cotric go from future star, to current star, to Bulldog, to fringe first grade before he even theoretically hit his prime. It upsets me that he’s not on an NRL roster next year but let’s be frank – get me a Grenache and pay me 400k to sit in the sun and dominate amateurs and I’d take it too.

In a sense these two departures only really open up one roster spot for 2025. Cotric was off contract anyway. With the signings of Salevio Tamale and the desire of Jordan Rapana to keep playing footy always made it seem like keeping him was a long shot. But as noted it does reduce the competition for the one spot that Rapana, Cotric, Zac Woolford, Peter Hola, Hohepa Puru and potentially Adrian Trevilyan (noting he’s on a supplemental deal) might be fighting for.

But Guler’s position does open up a spot altogether. By my count that makes 28 roster spots of the top 30 for next year. We’d noted that with Rapana the Raiders can afford to wait and wait and wait and see what’s shaking out elsewhere before committing to Jordan. He’s been public that it’s either Canberra or retirement. He’s been a bit up and down in recent weeks as the club has put huge amounts of on-field organisational pressure on him which is retrospect we should have known would have a limited shelf-life. But it’s not hard to see that given his old role on the wing he’d flourish, at least for one more year. Meanwhile Michael Asomua would one year closer to his unstoppable rise to most nuggety nugget to take the field since Justin Carney.

That leaves one position on the roster and a man is starting (again) to get worried if Hohepa Puru is on the whiteboard under ‘retain’ or ‘?’. Puru is one of the chosen 28 (pending him picking up his option) but if the noise this week around the club chasing Stefano Utoikamanu is anything to go by, it’s hard not to wonder where he fits in the big picture. The Raiders may have just been thirsting in the comments to make sure the teams that Stefano wants to play for (the Panthers, Roosters, Storm) all come with the proper coin rather than trying to get a top-team bargain. But it even in the reporting ruling the Milk out of the race there was indications the club are looking elsewhere. Meanwhile Puru has not been used in first grade despite looking more ready than last year and the need for him being even greater.

While the Raiders are off chasing waterfalls there’s a real risk that Hohepa finds a home elsewhere. That might not matter to anyone but me and select other handsome fans (Hi JB, looking good buddy) but this would be such a poor outcome. Puru is going to be a long term first grader. He already offers something the Raiders desperately need: passing, agility, utility value, as well as star upside and leadership. When you get more specific there’s not a team in the competition that needs the width he could offer from first receiver more. So as insane as it sounds if you’re asking me to choose between 900k a year for 5 years on a possibly elite middle or Puru on a cut price deal i’m hoping for Hohepa. Call me insane. I can cop it.

A few more variables remain in the mix, including one that briefly shot out of a cannon before being quietly stuffed back in. Corey Horsburgh went from ‘wanting out’ to ‘just being frustrated with a tough year’ in a matter of hours. Look the guy has had an awful run with injuries, and at least some of that is on his preparation for this year. He should have been ready to capitalise on a career year last year rather than regress to pandemic era Corey (also the last time he got frustrated and it emerged in retrospect he got similarly frustrated with the club rather than himself).

I think both he and the club just need to take a chill pill, get him into shape and get him playing first grade again. He’s got too long on his deal and too much talent to to waste it getting his Dox Quixote on. But while we don’t think he’ll be actually leaving any time soon it’s worth keeping half an eye on, particularly if he doesn’t make it back to the field in the near future.

Another variable is the now quiet trail on Corey Harawira-Naera. He’s currently part of the top 30 for 2025. The club has taken the position it’s too much of a risk for him to play. He is of the opposite view. He’s got a deal through 2026 which makes a buy out difficult. Buy-outs still count against the cap (I’m like 84 per cent sure) and there’s no good reason for Corey to agree for one unless he has an opportunity to play elsewhere or the Raiders essentially pay out his deal altogether. Neither seem likely right now.

So it does feel like Canberra’s recruitment options and pathways are starting to narrow, and now that Stefano Utoikamanu will be staying in Sydney-er pastures that feeling will only increase. But there remains a small degree of uncertainty as to the final shape of the 2025 roster.

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