BY DAN

Despite all that has happened in the last three weeks the Canberra Raiders have an opportunity to restablish themselves as a contender for the finals. They’ll likely to have to do without Matty Timoko and a host of others. Finding a victory before reinforcements return after the final bye of the season will be critical.

It says a lot about about the buffer they built, and the competition they’re in, that Canberra collapsed like sandcastle over the last month and can still make a run. In practical terms they’re one win out of the top eight, have a bye to come, and outside of games against the Roosters and Panthers pretty much play other members of the same group fighting for the bottom end of the finals. Given how they went when they had all hands on deck at the beginning of the year, and how they performed with a more structured organisational approach on the weekend, it’s not ridiculous to think they might be able to knock some heads together in the back half of the year.

A really useful starting point would be winning against the Knights this coming week. This season doesn’t rest on it but the opportunities afforded by it are substantial. First the Raiders can arrest some much needed confidence, and take succour that what was (re)started in Melbourne is the way forward.

If anything was learned in the weekend’s game against the Storm it’s that it’s possible for this side to function the way it did at the beginning of the year by freeing up Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange to play their more ‘natural’ games. The greater ease and fluidity in attack offered by the inclusion of Adam Cook should allow things to feel less frantic, less forced. For more patience to be shown by outside backs in the knowledge this won’t be the only time they see the ball in space. Moments like Jordan Rapana chipping on the first, or Matty T pushing a pass to Xavier Savage with tackles in the pack and zero space for the X man to work in, may be less common when the backs know the ball is coming back to them again. If that can be added to the defensive resolve showed by the Milk for the first time weeks then the Raiders could be on to something.

This hopefully not only creates a more effective attack but also provide part of a solution to their issues with discipline lately. The way everything has become such a struggle in recent times has been exacerbated by and likely contributed to their error-ridden football of recent times. They’ve averaged near 14 errors a game since the previous bye, and its felt like that’s come both from incompetence and panic at not being able to find a way through. A more functional approach it might be the tonic they need.

However this is all made complicated by the potential mix of players missing this week. It’s hard to build fluidity and cohesiveness in attack if you’re constantly changing who goes where. The best scenario for this would be to stick with the 17 they had in Melbourne.

Unfortunately that is likely out of the question. The Canberra Times reported he’s heading for scans Monday after dislocating his shoulder for the second week in a row. It doesn’t take a NRL Physio level genius to work out he will almost certainly miss the next game, and likely much longer.

You don’t have to be told how much the Raiders will miss him. After doing so much of the hardest toil it’s cruel his shoulder has copped it just as he might have a chance to run in space. Even then he’s probably been the Raiders best outside back for a while now and most likely to break a tackle (leads the team, 5th among centres in the competition this season). This is no small out and only makes life more difficult if it’s a lengthy injury (which given all information seems likely).

The most likely outcome is Seb Kris’ return, and Albert Hopoate switching around to play right centre. I get why the club wants to push him into these spots rather than James Schiller but it’s hard to ignore what Schiller keeps doing in Cup footy. ‘Bert hasn’t disappointed in first grade. He just offers a different profile to Schiller – unending hard work against upside and dingers.

Jordan Martin is also going to be stood down for 11 days after his nasty concussion. Jordan Rapana and Ata Mariota also left the field for Head Injury Assessments late in the game. Time will tell with those, but there’s coverage in the squad in the form of Nic Cotric for Rapana, and Emre Guler and Simi Sasagi for Martin and Mariota respectively, should they not pass the protocol. The club also very much has the option of letting Hohepa Puru play first grade but at this point I feel like I’m yelling at a wall and pretending it’s a conversation.

It makes Corey Horsburgh’s misbehaviour in Cup more glaring. Canberra are already operating on limited depth and while Horse may not have cracked first grade for the Storm game, with an industrious and intelligence performance he was almost certainly in the frame for the coming week. He’s also very familiar to everyone in the first grade side and would have offered so many things like hard-running, offloads, link passing through the middle third and diligent defence. This would have been the perfect time to bring him back. Alas.

Canberra might be thin right now but there’s reinforcements on the other side of the bye. It’s important to not treat Hosking and Fogarty like saviours upon return, but at the very least they’ll be handy additions to ameliorate the attrition of the season.

Elliott Whitehead has been a pleasant surprise, and gets through so much unrecognised work in defence. But the pressure he puts on himself to clean up every mess the team makes for itself is not sustainable. He looks tired. Two came from his exhausted decisions on the weekend. If anything Zac Hosking will be fresh.

When Jamal Fogarty returns he’ll bring many things, not in the least the bombs. Remember them? When Canberra were handing over possession like it was Halloween candy against the Storm it was hard not to remember a time when it was the Milk who tormented back threes with impossible-to-catch kicks.

While there may be help coming after the final break the Raiders would be well served to find a win on this side of it. Home against a beatable Knights side presents an opportunity to right the ship, and the bye points a chance to consolidate and rest before the back end of the season. Before the Storm game it didn’t feel like this was a realistic hope. There’s a chance now. Let’s hope they take it.

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