BY DAN

In confirming Savelio Tamale’s signature last week, the Canberra Times also noted that the Canberra Raiders were putting a pause on negotiations with Nic Cotric. It was a sudden change from what had been previously (and surprisingly) reported as an ongoing discussion. It suggested the Raiders were lukewarm on the discussion. This ambivalence is consistent with the club’s circumstances and the make-up of the roster, and it could be the beginning of the end of Cotric’s time in Canberra.

For those of you who had read our piece on the current make-up of 2025’s top 30 this would have been no surprise. Assuming Hohepa Puru picks up his option, and Corey Harawira-Naera’s position isn’t settled, the Raiders only really have one space among their top 30 to play with. They also have Cotric, Zac Woolford, Peter Hola, and potentially Adrian Trevilyan and Puru off contract. That Jordan Rapana might go around again next year only potentially complicates that further. Canberra have also indicated (to the Times) that they were keen to hold a spot free in case a gift turns up in their laps.

Cotric just doesn’t seem to be a priority for the club. Xavier Savage combining brutish power running with already elite speed is making him indispensable. That means there’s only one spot on the wing for Cotric to fill in. Competing for that spot are Bert Hopoate, who has often played ahead of Nic, Michael Asomua, who is officially entering the top 30 next season, and potentially Tamale depending on where the club sees him.

From a structural perspective we’ve noted previously it would make more sense to add Rapana to that mix. For starters he’s better at Nic’s best position than Nic. He also offers coverage at more positions and can offer an important variation to what sometimes is a less than innovative attack. Yes he’s 34 and would be old enough to play Masters footy next year, but that age is almost a benefit when you’re looking at transition to a new era. He offers low-stakes certainty (what a wild thing to say about Rapana) for a club that will be riding the bumps of youth. Outside of further roster change to free up further space – like Puru and Harawira-Naera’s roster position changing, or another outside back leaving the club – there just doesn’t seem a ‘path’ that involves Cotric staying at the club.

One might be tempted to suggest this is a negotiating tactic, a suggestion that Cotric’s management and Raiders HQ are too far apart in their expectations from a deal. I think that’s kinda true. Nic is still trying to get paid like a starter. But despite getting paid like a star he’s been anything but that in recent seasons. The club now sees him a luxury rather than a necessity. Obviously there is a gap between the two camps. One wants a deal at good money. The other camp seems unsure if they want a deal at all.

The case to keep Nic, now theoretically entering his prime, would be much stronger if he was heads and shoulders above his competition. But despite what on the eye test seems a stronger 2024, it’s not substantially better than can be found in less heralded parts of the roster. On traditional statistics there’s nothing occurring that is measurably exciting. He has one line break for the season. Of Canberra’s outside backs he has the least metres per game, and the second least runs a game. Only Bert Hopoate averages less metres per run than Cotric, and that’s a matter of decimal places than actual metres and doesn’t reflect Hopoate’s unending motor in that regard.

For a guy that barely touches the ball outside of yardage (70 per cent of his runs have been either from dummy-half or one-pass from the ruck) he doesn’t get big metres. He breaks a lot of tackles – fifth most in the club in total and on a per game basis. The fact that doesn’t translate into either line breaks (1), line break assists (0), or even extra metres suggests that while Nikola has his strengths, he’s *just* a pretty good winger. You can find pretty good wingers on minimum or near-minimum money. The gap to ‘proper good’ is where you spend your money, and Cotric’s performance just isn’t suggesting the club is, or should be, keen to make the splash.

It’s a shame. Cotric is a local legend, and when he made to first grade in 2017 it seemed like anything was possible. There was a time where I straight-faced argued that he should have been picked at winger in Origin over Tom Trbojevic. He played for Australia and New South Wales. Nowadays he seems so far from either of those arenas. Canberra’s pathways are usually secondary for the Milk to more regional options. It would be sad to see Nic and Harley Smith-Shields both depart the club so close to each other.

But without other change either in Canberra’s roster situation, or some marked improvement in his performance, it seems likely that Cotric will be looking elsewhere. This may be Nic’s last stand in Canberra.

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