BY DAN

Outside a wonderfully sanguine period around the first of November, NRL rosters are a pretty murky plane of existence. Finding out who’s in, out, and roundabout, the top 30 list of any team is complicated. The lack of definitive lists, contract clarity, or any sort of process of announcement of other professional leagues, leaves us in the dark as to what a team’s situation is. We are left to cobble it together from imperfect information.

Recently the Canberra Times reported that Raiders had one available roster spot available in their top 30 for 2025. Taking what we can put together through various sources (including the NRL’s list, zero tackle, Fox Sports and others) we’ve identified that 23 players from the current top 30 are with the club for next season. This includes Corey Harawira-Naera, whose status is at best uncertain, and Hohepa Puru is has an option for that season that he is yet to take up.

There are also two players on the supplemental list who have apparently already signed contracts for the top 30 next season: Michael Asomua and Vena Patuki-Case. The latter is surprising given he has yet to play Cup footy but it’s right there on all the lists but that presumably was part of the deal of his initial signature. So that’s 25.

Then we add recruits to that, which include Matty Nicholson, Savelio Tamale, Myles Martin and Ethan Sanders. Boom. 29. We have assumed all of these players are part of the top 30 primarily because it seems likely that’s what it would have taken to get them to the club. That’s particularly the case for Nicholson and Sanders.

That would also get us to the one empty top 30 roster position identified by the Times. The article that came from suggested the Raiders would be keeping their powder dry in regards to that last position, in order to be a potential home for a distressed asset, that is a player at another club looking for a way out, either for opportunity or for personality reasons.

That means that the Raiders aren’t currently likely to retain the following players: Nic Cotric, Jordan Rapana, Zac Woolford, and Peter Hola. There’s also a risk for Adrian Trevilyan that I’ll get into later.

Based on literally zero inside information I think you can safely assume it’s highly likely that Zac Woolford and Peter Hola will leave the club. Woolford would have had a shot at starting in first grade for many clubs this year and be a legit second option at most others (as opposed to whittling away his prime in NSW Cup). Hola has been victim of Canberra’s success in producing middle forwards. When he joined the club he wasn’t having to fight any of Mariota, Mooney, Saulo, Smithies or Puru for time. He’ll want to go somewhere he’s closer to the top.

Cotric and Rapana I think is a more murky question. My guess is Cotric goes, though he doesn’t want to (update: as the Times seems to be suggesting here). I think Rapana also wants to stay, and play. I don’t think either will be offered the last roster space though. Cotric has been better this year than previous but the gap between him and Albert Hopoate and Michael Asomua isn’t as substantial as it once was. With Xavier Savage having locked down one wing spot for the foreseeable future and Tamale joining the club, there’s just not the demand for a specialist winger.

Rapana is more complex. He offers utility and experience. He’s also likely to be a very cheap deal that they can get at literally any time. My guess is that his situation isn’t resolved until Corey Harawira-Naera’s is. Harawira-Naera has a player option for 2026, but my guess (emphasis on guess there) is that the Raiders would like look to pay out that deal to free-up the roster space (though not the cap space) before next season. That may take a while to resolve. Rapana doesn’t need a long pre-season. Sort it out by February 2025 and Rapa would be good to go. Alternatively Canberra may wait til February, see no free agency option, and just keep Jordy around, using the same wait-and-see approach. It wouldn’t be the worst idea.

Adrian Trevilyan is currently with the club on a developmental deal that reportedly expires at end 1 November. The Raiders have been softly softly with him as he’s come back from a series of injuries. He’ll be 23 when his deal expires, and as his body matures perhaps he experiences less traumatic injuries. He wouldn’t be the first player to go through this. Given he hasn’t made huge gains in Cup footy this year Canberra may be able to keep him for 2025 on the supplemental list while they wait for further evidence as to whether he can make the leap that he seems capable of.

Either way the club has a tricky path to tread to work out how they fill their last roster spot. A lot of decisions have been made now that limit the paths available to them later in the year. It will be interesting to see which one they tread.

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