BY DAN

It’s not be a fun period to be a Canberra Raiders fan.

They’ve lost several first choice players in critical positions to injury and none are coming back soon. It’s put background players in the forefront. Made bit part players take on big roles. And this has exposed fatal flaws in the Canberra system.

The plan this season had been familiar. Use big middles and outside backs to win rucks. Play ‘downhill’ off the back of that and improvise to mask the weaknesses in their structured or redzone attack. It’s why they’re third in one-pass hit ups and first in dummy-half runs across the league. In return they would be aggressive and strong through the middle third, giving them time to develop the defensive cohesion to stop teams in their own twenty. Bolstered by an elite kicking game it was working.

Over the last two weeks the Raiders have lost the battle of the middle. Without that advantage they’ve had to rely on being able to create in tight spaces. As we noted in the Review at one point on Sunday the Raiders had 27 tackles in the Sharks twenty for zero points. Conversely they’ve conceded a metric shit-ton and frankly I don’t like it and neither do you. Cronulla had been tackled seven times in Canberra’s area for five tries. Against the Broncos a similar pattern was repeated.

Fixing this in attack doesn’t feel like an immediate possibility. Across the season this has been a weakness that has only got worse. Canberra have been tackled 254 times in the opposition redzone, third most in the league for a decidedly uninspiring 28 tries (8th). Given many of their tries were created outside the twenty lord knows it’s get dark on a per redzone play-the-ball basis.

The response in these circumstances is usually to demand change, either to style or personnel. But there aren’t many options as most of the personnel inputs are fixed. Changing style on the run is rarely advisable but it’s even harder on a short turnaround. The helplessness makes us reach for the only change we can see: personnel. But most positions are relatively fixed. The options for change at key positions bring with it short and long term ramifications.

Change in the ruck is the only personnel option that can have a material impact on Canberra’s attack. Zac Woolford isn’t the runner that Levi is but he’s superior in ruck manipulation, deception and in his ability to create for the big men in the middle third. Given the Raiders lack of creativity elsewhere, and the fact their attack is very ‘over the trenches into death’ style generally, anything that might put defenders in two minds is needed more than a blue Powerade the morning after a big night.

Woolford hasn’t exactly been tearing up the NSW Cup. Partly that’s mirrored the challenge the reserves have had in losing all their best players to the top line. It’s also hard not to wonder if the ‘in-and-out” way the club has treated him with over the last 18 months has dented his confidence. He’d only be human. But what is unquestionable is that he’d be a better fit for what Canberra needs right now.

Another option that could be utilised in a similar vein is Hohepa Puru. Again another of the hobby-horses of this page, we’ve long advocated the extra point of attack he can offer. Morgan Smithies is useful as a link man but it’s clear his ability to ‘create’ with ball in hand is still developing. Puru is further along in that regard, and can play minutes at hooker if needed.

Adding both, or either of these two to the 17 wouldn’t fix their defence but wouldn’t hurt. As we noted in the Review, Levi was targeted mercilessly by the Sharks and it led to him being hooked. But this wasn’t new. In the Tigers and Titans game Levi’s tendency to get physically overwhelmed and exhausted in defence was directly responsible for the first try of the game for each opposition. For a hooker he gets through surprisingly little defensive work. He’s made the 17th most tackles amongst hookers in the comp this year, and has the third most misses (tackle efficiency 88 per cent). Zac Woolford has a career 96 per cent tackle efficiency.

It’s unlikely either Woolford or Puru gets a run this side of the bye. If it does or doesn’t the impact will be meaningless if Canberra don’t fix other problems. They haven’t been outgained by 500 and 600 metres in consecutive weeks because of Danny Levi. If Zac Woolford or Tom Starling or Steve fucking Walters spent this much time isolated in defence the result would have been the same.

Outside of minor personnel change the only solution Canberra can deploy in the five days before they play Manly is one they’ve utilised before in similar circumstances: rolled gold emotion. Hot blood and courage. Maybe watch Al Pacino talk about the six inches in front of your face (ah….yup). We’d hoped they would have found it last week. Third time’s a charm. That might help fix the contact and line speed. It might even be enough to corral Tommy T on Friday. But it’s hardly a sustainable plan. Shit it might not even last the whole game. Desperate times and all that.

The problems this team are facing right now aren’t quickly fixable so whether power or passion, the best way to hide them is to physically dominate. Fixing their structural and stylistic issues can wait for the bye period. There’s a game to win Friday. If they can’t fix the plan before Friday, they’ll have to find a kitchen sink to throw. Time’s running out.

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