BY DAN

Last weekend Corey Horsburgh made his season debut in NSW Cup. It was immediately obvious that he was well beyond the quality of that competition (like most of the Raiders’ NSW Cup pack). The prospect of him coming back to first grade is more of a ‘when’ rather than ‘if’. But when he does come back it presents an interesting conundrum for team composition when that occurs.

Horsburgh’s success in 2023 was built on the back of big minutes. He routinely played 60 plus minutes for the Milk, tying up the middle both as a workhorse in defence and a critical link man in attack. Seem familiar? This is the role that Morgan Smithies has played through three games in 2024. The Englishman has clocked 60 plus minutes in all his outings, and 80 in one of them. He’s provided crucial service through the middle third. While there is definitely some overlap it’s probably better to have more than less of those skills.

And there is some difference between the two. Though no slouch Smithies has yet to show Horsburgh’s damaging running. The first carry I saw from Corey in Cup was him wandering down the field with three players on his back for about 15 post-contact (or should it be ‘in-contact’?) metres. He pumped about another 130 metres over the rest of the game, to go with 34 tackles. Not bad for 60 minutes work. Smithies keeps defences honest with his decisions to tuck and run but it’s fair to say that Coach Stuart’s pre-season assessment that Smithies is a lock and Horse a prop is supported by their differing impact on defensive lines.

Regardless they are both capable and effective in 60 minutes a game. A caveat here is whether Horsburgh’s fitness is up to scratch. He tired as NSW Cup game progressed on the weekend, and I doubt he’d jump straight back into 60 plus if brought into first grade next week. But he’s definitely capable of doing it once his fitness reaches its 2023 heights.

The problem is there is are only 240 rotation minutes to offer to a squad that has more quality in the middle than my pants. At peak fitness Smithies and Horse could happily play 60 minutes each. Joe Tapine has cracked 50 minutes in each game this season and it seems smart to keep your best player on the field for as much as he can handle. He has looked comfortable with that level the previous two seasons also. But once Horsburgh is at full fitness that means there’s only 70 minutes to offer between Josh Papalii and whoever the two other middle forwards on the bench are. Papalii has played around 40 minutes in each of the games in 2024 (38, 45, 39). Emre Guler has played 26, 47 and 41. In his three outings in 2024 Pasami Saulo has cracked 22, 31, and 28. Elliott Whitehead added 13 minutes playing in the middle at the back end of the game.

A further complicating factor is how the club plans to use Whitehead. Many Raiders aren’t keen on playing him as the club seems to be but there is a logic from the club’s perspective. Obviously there’s club culture and leadership aspect; a desire to (rightly) take care of the people that have crushed their bones to feed their masters. The desire to maintain an ability to cover the backs without having to carry one on the bench is also relevant. Keeping Zac Hosking fresh (in both a game, and season sense) is also a factor in Whitehead starting. Add to that keeping Whitehead playing enough minutes to ensure he can cover 80 if/when Hudson Young heads off for rep footy and there’s a sense to the idea.

So it makes sense that there’s a more even spread of minutes. Early on that probably looks like keeping the Red Horse to 40 minutes max, much of it complementing time off the field for Smithies. That looks like 100 between them, Tapine 50, Papalii 40, Guler 35, Whitehead/Saulo/Ata/Mooney/Puru/Hola/Fucknlol 15. Once that ups to 110 or more it makes that last bench middle almost irrelevant. At this point it that last bench spot is almost a utility by default.

It does however mean that it presents a risk to opportunities players like Mooney, Mariota and Puru. There’s still development in their future before they are fully formed products. But as their first three outings of Cup in 2024 have shown they are above that competition. Canberra will need to find ways to get these players in first grade games at some point this season. Most will look at Whitehead’s position and see opportunity there. Guler’s minutes could also be a chance for these younger players.

Regardless of how they do they’ll need to. Forget the lack of development in the immediate. Mooney, Puru and Hola can leave after this season in search of easier pathways and opportunities elsewhere. Losing either would be a blow; losing both would be a disaster. Canberra may have depth but they also have a lot of decisions to make.

The old adage is that it’s a good problem to have. It’s hard to tell from the outside what considerations are going into this. Last we heard Coach Stuart talk about this many decisions about rotations are made by senior players. There still needs to be a strategic overlay of balancing the multiple facets that are relevant here, and keeping an eye on what’s important beyond this year.

This is good problem to have, but it’s still a problem.

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