BY DAN

Since the end of the 2023 there has been one central question continually raised about the coming era of the Canberra Raiders:

Are they ready to embrace uncertainty and possibility over known quantities?

It permeates every question the club faces. Who’s their starting hooker? Danny Levi or Tommy Starling? The good play of Zac Woolford or the upside of Adrian Trevilyan? Who fills the backside of their middle rotation? The youth of Mariota, Mooney and Puru or more known quantities like Emre Guler? Are they ready to embrace Chevy and Ethan (and maybe another Ethan) as their spine players when they’ve barely begun to shave and are so young they think Tiktok is for the olds? The Raiders face the question at every post.

This is a question that only someone as admirably headstrong as Ricky Stuart can answer. For better or worse his mindset pervades every sinew of the Milk. Nowhere was this better seen than in the fact that a obviously poor side. Bottom four in attack and defence, as Jamal Fogarty has now reminded us several times this offseason, managed to pull wins out of nowhere, hang on despite facing an oncoming stampede (often of their own creating) and squeak into the finals. They even gave a good showing of themselves, their first decent game in months. Sure, they got there busily bailing water out of a ship that was basically three planks held together by a few senior players while Jack Wighton did flips off the sides. But they were stubborn enough to hold it all together when there was almost zero reason to.

But the juice that was squeezed from that orange with a hydraulic press over the last few seasons. There was nothing left, and now they have to look elsewhere. This is compounded by Wighton’s departure, and the arrival over the last 18 months of exciting young talent. Coach Stuart knows this.

Over the next 12 months we’re going to be transitioning into a new era. But I’m certainly looking at it as a positive and a massive opportunity. There’s going to be times in this transition… where there will be inconsistencies whilst we’re developing this young group

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If there’s a tendency in Coach Stuart’s approach to man management it’s an emphasis on proof rather than promise. You don’t get to play first grade just because you look good at other levels. Trey Mooney has been bossing Cup footy for a while and is still battling to get a shot in the 17. Xavier Savage has suffered so many side-eyes, slings and arrows from the coaching staff about his work ethic, size, mind-set, mistakes, defence etc etc that the list of faults look more like a roadworthiness report of my old ’87 corolla (windows didn’t roll down, it was lowered by someone literally cutting the suspension springs in half and it was a hatchback with blue mags and a sports exhaust).

Sticky loves throwing someone a bone – see Savage’s ‘first game’, Schneider’s 9 minutes, Mooney’s 15 minutes here and there, Strange’s “he’s ready….for now” game last year. They’re thrown out as rewards (and, if you catch me three pints and one tin-foil hat in I’ll also say as placations to players with itchy feet). There’s not a commitment to transition; to youth; to talent and promise but the sole truth of doing your job as demanded by the game plan.

This conservatism is also seen in style. Since 2019 the club hasn’t played a very expansive or structured attacking style, instead relying on the talent of individuals to beat matchups, exploit the weaknesses saw and basically play opportunistic footy supported by robust defence. That was fine when it was Hodgson, Papa, BJ, Bateman, Wighton, unbroken Croker and unaged Whitehead. Now that style is still in play and only Matt Timoko and Jordan Rapana retain that ability and spirit. Stuart has proven in the past that he’s capable of fostering a dynamic attack, but it’s been years since he’s been unencumbered by the expectations of getting all the juice out of the orange (you mean there’s another way?).

This isn’t two roads diverged stuff (that poem is actually about how you shouldn’t second-guess your life decisions rather than non-conformity FYI). This is how much you rev the engine going down the only road you have. The Raiders are changing; they must transition. What that looks like we don’t know yet but the trajectory is set. The only question is how fast that happens.

And this is Sticky’s test. Most of watching are keen to see change; but that’s often for the sake of knowing ‘what’s in the box’. We will push and push for it to be opened but he has to know when players are ready. It’s not as simple as throwing them in and expecting them to shine. Young players need defined roles and responsibilities. They need to be supported by experienced players able to cover for rookie mistakes, hold them accountable and show them the way.

Stuart will have to fight pressure from us to look in the box until it’s time. That, however, plays to his worst instincts – the ones that see him hanging on to a game plan that works when you have the best of the best, as it did for the 2019 team, or his teams with the Roosters. Or maximising mediocrity, as it did for his Sharks teams, or the Raiders 2023 outfit. When a player is ready is hard to tell from here. We’re not at training every day. We don’t how their skills are fitting in. We simply don’t have the knowledge of what the ‘little things’ they are or aren’t doing that the chief wants from them.

But Stuart has form; and if he keeps trying to convince us players with limited upside are the answer when better options obviously exist then I can understand a degree of tumult occurring outside the tent (and potentially inside). We’ve seen in it his position decisions over the years. We’ve seen it in his decisions about leadership. We’ve seen it in recruitment, and in every word that has escaped his mouth over the years.

So while a fanbase will be asked to state tranquillo by the club as they work the youth through the system, the coaching staff need to do the reverse (devono agitarsi? I dunno my Italian is merda). Take a step out of their comfort zone; not recklessly, but with reckless aforethought. Don’t be worried about what might go wrong because this year it almost certainly will. But this isn’t about this year, this is about creating the conditions for the next Raiders premiership tilt. That takes courage, innovation and a willingness to pick up the inches that other teams don’t have to.

That is the problem. That is the opportunity.

Our off-season series this year is on the key problems that the Raiders must address now and into the future in order for the 2024 season, and those beyond. If you missed Part I on the hooking situation you can read it here. Part II on the number of touches Jamal Fogarty needs to success can be found here. Part III on the middle rotation can be found here. Part IV on retention needs is here. Part V on the spine and the need for cohesion is here.

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