BY DAN

Our off-season series this year will be on the key problems that the Raiders must address now and into the future in order for the 2024 season, and those beyond. If you missed Part I on the hooking situation you can read it here. Part II on the number of touches Jamal Fogarty needs to success can be found here.

Possibly the only ‘good’ problem Ricky Stuart will have for this upcoming season is the plethora of middles at his disposal.

There’s a range of reasons for this. It’s a little bit luck – there’s a strand of alternative history where John Bateman is paid, the pandemic never happens and the actual controversy is why Stick keeps playing Elliott Whitehead ahead of Hudson Young. Partly this is due to imperfect roster management, or more accurately the pickup lines fired at every backrower and available half across the country being about as successful as you at your local (‘your dad must’ve been a thief?’ Come on man, Ben Hunt needs to be treated like the King he is). When that didn’t work we took Morgan Smithies home (which feels more situationship than true love but it’s early days – these things can grow). It’s also partly because the club is really good at turning young middles into NRL players. Ata Mariota, Emre Guler, Corey Horsburgh, Joe Tapine and even Josh Papalii are evidence of the club’s ability to turn fringe talent into middle marauders.

So Canberra is loaded up at prop and lock, and how they fit the varying into 17 is an interesting one. It was put to Joe Tapine recently and his solution provided some insight. He made special mention of Josh Papalii and Ata Mariota, and noted that Morgan Smithies has impressed. Simi Sasagi was also included in the discussion, which is interesting because we weren’t sure he’d be a centre, a backrower, or a middle. You can see the whole discussion here if you want.

Perhaps his most obvious statement was Josh Papalli would “definitely” be in the round one side. As we’ve noted while he’s not the same player he was in 2019-20, Papalii continues to be a quality NRL middle, and found a really useful role at the backend of last year covering the middle forty minutes of the game where Canberra has often struggled in recent times.

Tapine also put Mariota ahead of many.

I see Ata being in the squad somewhere as well. He’s been training outstanding as well.

Joey Taps

This was exciting to me. It’s impossible to not see the similarity in styles of Papalii and Mariota, and Ata has shown in moments that he’s not just an every week footballer. As we’ve noted before it’s validation of the club’s ability to churn out elite talent, and if what he showed in moments last year (like his spectacular outing against Newcastle in the finals) can be found more regularly, the Raiders might have struck gold again.

It was also interesting to see not just that he singled out Morgan Smithies, but why. Taps noted that Smithies “adds a bit of ball-playing in the middle as well”, which is something that Smithies has mentioned consistently is something he’s trying to build into his game, but hasn’t really shown in his career so far. It’s good news that he’s succeeding in that. It’s also curious because the Raiders have someone who has those skills ready to rock and roll (we wrote about Hohepa Puru earlier this week). The thing for Puru has always been size (both his blessing in terms of agility, and curse in terms of Stick’s horn for big middles). Perhaps Smithies is can be some of the skill but more of the bulk that the coaching staff wants?

Tapine didn’t get to other players, because this was approximately 30 seconds of a three minute conversation. Emre Guler remains a favourite of the coaching staff. He’s entering his theoretical prime. Trey Mooney is the opposite – clearly something he does has’t pleased the powers that be, which is the only explanation for his limited opportunities in first grade so far. He’s looked a cut above Cup footy for a while now. Pasami Saulo found plenty of opportunities last year as the player that cleaned up the mess in the middle. If Smithies and Horsburgh are getting bulk minutes in that role is their space for him?

How Stuart solves this issue will (again) be revealingof his appetite for risk. While we are high of Hohepa Puru it seems increasingly likely that the club sees Smithies as the heir apparently to Horsburgh at lock. There hasn’t been a Paul Crawley 1-17, or a comment by the club or player, that hasn’t pointed to this being the first choice of Stick. Tapine and Papalii are certainties, but after that will Stuart have the testicular fortitude to prioritise the upside of Mariota and Mooney instead of the known quantities elsewhere on his bench?

A further complication is the likely hybrid role that Zac Hosking and Elliott Whitehead will likely share. When sharing the role with Corey Harawira-Naera in the past there has been a tendency to start one of Smell and Corey on the edge, and then rotate one to the middle depending on game circumstance. Both are likely to be in a starting 17, which means alongside a bench hooker there will be only two free bench spots. Given Tapine – a leader of the pack and acknowledged potential captain this year – has identified Smithies and Mariota, that might be the pack when Horsburgh comes back. That means players like Guler, Mooney, Saulo, Puru and Peter Hola are watching. Brock Shepperd is going to have a time if that’s his NSW Cup engine-room.

Adding Smithies and Hosking to the rotation alongside Taps, Papa, Horse and Mariota isn’t exactly a revolution, more incremental change. Our wider interest in Stuart’s willingness to embrace the future stays unanswered with another opportunity half grasped. But as Joe Tapine noted, there’s plenty of inexperience in the spine so the big boys need to be the leaders. Perpahs that’s a key factor in Stuart’s approach.

At least he’ll have the players available if he changes his mind.

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