BY DAN

Amongst the noise of the ‘will they-won’t they’ draw leaks of Thursday, the Canberra Raiders (and most if not all other NRL teams) quietly released their top 30 list for 2024.

It was a complete 30 with the final position we’d been wondering about recently taken up by the young up-and-coming centre Brad Morkos. And of course, we have some takes.

Spinal fusion

I can’t remember the last time the Raiders entered a season with so many questions at their spine positions, and this is reflected in the roster list. Arguably only Jamal Fogarty is ensured a starting spot in round one. The Milk have attacked every other position with number and a dash of hope. Hooker has three options in the 30 (and Adrian Trevilyan on the supplemental list). Five-eighth is a battle between the new recruit Kaeo Weekes and the emerging player Ethan Strange. Even fullback is cavalcade of options, with Chevy Stewart, Xavier Savage, Seb Kris and Jordan Rapana all with valid claims to being the first choice.

It’s a challenging situation. We’ve highlighted the importance of cohesion in successful teams before (something emphasised in Gainline Analytics research), and even when spine-change has been impetus for success (like Jack Wighton moving to six, Charnze taking over at one) it was done through a bedrock of stability (i.e. Hodgson and Sezer maintained a strong hand over the direction of the side). It’s not impossible to make new combinations work, and as we’ve said before Jack was a unique talent but not a typical half, which heavily influenced the oft-unstructured nature of Canberra’s play. New, more typical halves, more capable of fitting into, and implementing, an attacking system may give the Raiders a different (and maybe better) attack.

It’s not a perfect scenario to operate from. There will undoubtedly be growing pains from the young players, something that will test Coach Stuart’s developmental skills, communication skills as well as his patience. One hopes the talent of players like Stewart and Strange will shine through but they’re still incredibly raw. There will be bumps.

Shallow sevens

Where they aren’t throwing resources at is halfback. Jamal Fogarty has made that position his own in the past few years. He’ll be the daddy of the side next year, presumably the biggest attacking and organisational influence in how things go. When he managed to exert that influence on the game in 2023 the Raiders thrived.

But it’s hard not to notice that with the departure of Brad Schneider and Matt Frawley there isn’t a clear backup for Fogarty. He missed the first half of 2022, and round four in 2023. You can’t plan for injury but you can mitigate for it. I’m not sure what happens if he misses time in 2024. This is a real problem if it occurs. Does a Weekes/Strange halves pairing feel like one that will be able to easily navigate an NRL game? Troy Dargan is on the supplemental list and has played one (1) more NRL game than Ethan Strange. Is he Sticky’s new Matt Frawley/Sam Williams?

I suspect the hope, or expectation, is that the club will pick up Ethan Sanders post round six next year (the date by which they can actually sign him). He’s definitely a similar style halfback to Fogarty so would be a perfect backup before (hopefully) becoming the future.

The trail has been quiet on him lately (other than to note that Parra still wants to keep him, little else appears to have changed). While I had thought the Raiders would keep a spot safe in their 30 in order to get him to the club earlier, the changing rules about negotiating with supplemental players means that the benefits of having him in the 30 is reduced in comparison to the problems created by being a player short. Even his signature in round six would be no guarantee he’d be a Raider next year.

Hooked

One place the Raiders have plenty of options is hooker. Zac Woolford is the starter, Danny Levi the seemingly preferred candidate of the coach, and Tom Starling the one with the most longevity. Adrian Trevilyan is on the ‘supplemental’ list, which under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement means he can still play first grade from round one. So when Sticky names his team for round one next season he can theoretically choose from any four of those.

There has been reports that Zac Woolford has been shopped in England, which would lead one to ask ‘by who?’ Is this the club trying to free up a spot? Or is it Woolford’s management looking for demand and options given he doesn’t have a deal in place beyond 2024? Given he’s been the best rake for the Raiders over the last two seasons it’s worth wondering about.

Edge options

Elliott Whitehead has said he’s not playing beyond this year, so while he can still occasionally throw heat on the edge, the moments are getting fewer and farther between. The Raiders have said they’re on the hunt for a replacement but they’ll need to push someone out if that solution is coming for next season.

More likely than not the Raiders will have to make do with what they have. Given Corey Harawira-Naera isn’t cleared to play as yet, the next option is either Corey Horsburgh (who admittedly went better than we expected there last season) or Morgan Smithies (even though I think everyone agrees he’s a lock, not an edge forward). Simi Sasagi, who I’d assumed was a project to build depth by manufacturing a utility that can cover the edges in both positions (i.e centre and backrow) was reported in some spaces as in contention for the six position which is new to me. I guess we’ll see. It feels like the Raiders don’t need more uncertain options at six. They could definitely use more bodies in the backrow though.

After that well, ah, I dunno. Clay Webb appears to have been released, so we can’t even wonder if he’s “ready”. Jordan Martin is though, buried in the depth chart of the development players, so I guess he’ll be the new apple of my eye.

Bulk middles.

The Raiders have nine (9) players who fit into a prop/lock role (proppin’ and lockin’ yo). Now given that theoretically they name up to six of those in any particular game it’s probably an appropriate weighting. For comparison the Broncos have nine, as does Parra, Cows, Knights, and the Storm (this list isn’t exhaustive either, I just happened to look at those team’s top 30s). What does stand out as a point of difference between Canberra’s roster and others the ability of players to perform at multiple positions in the pack. Most teams have a few ‘tweeners’, forwards that can play both edge and middle, something exacerbated by Corey Harawira-Naera’s health issues. The inability to cover multiple positions not only means the Raiders have depth issues, but also amplifies the inflexibility in their style of play.

Only Horsburgh and Puru have proven ability to play multiple positions in the pack, or to create alternative ‘looks’ through their insertion. Horsburgh moving from lock to prop, playing alongside Puru, can change the nature of how Canberra play. Horse can cover edge (surprisingly). Perhaps Smithies can provide a point of difference. Perhaps Trey Mooney’s time on the edge in Cup footy can be of use (I don’t think that’s a realistic option for what it’s worth). More flexibility in this pack is needed if they’re planning on finding more pathways to victory than ‘punch them in the mouth and walk through the front door’.

Jordan and OBs

Sometimes having a lot of options means you have no good ones. But the The Raiders are actually in a good position with backs. They have clear first choice players at each position, replete with young and talented people pushing them. This year will be interesting to see who eventually takes over from Jordan Rapana, and whether Nic Cotric, who is also still young, becomes the elder statesmen of the outside backs in his stead. James Schiller and Bert Hopoate will push for time, as will Utoloa Asomua lurking in the supplemental list.

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