BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders 21-20 loss to the New Zealand Warriors was both heartbreaking and heartening. They took a good opposition to the wire, only losing in golden point. They did so by proving that both their limitations are real, but their previous victories were not fools gold. This is a good football team, limited, but capable of changing. Only time will tell if they do.

Canberra came into this game off a bye. We had hoped they had taken the break to work out how to manage the best teams in the competition, and to find a way to play a full game of footy. Their opposition was coming off a thumping of a good footy team. With the Raiders entering their oppositions nest it was fair to prepare for the worst. A proper investigation as to whether this diamond was fugazi.

Instead what happened was a cracking game of footy. Canberra battled their opposition through the middle, playing with pace and intent. The Raiders outgained the Warriors by near 200 metres, broke more tackles (37-21), and in general put more pressure on their opposition to keep it together than was offered in the opposite direction. Joe Tapine (15 for 154m, 71 post contact, 5 tackle breaks) was supported by Josh Papalii (19 for 168m, 71 post contact, 4 tackle breaks) and Corey Horsburgh (15 for 145m). It was the kind of platform that you can win from.

The work of the middle, a strength of the Milk, should have been enough to have them well in the game, with a chance to win. But Canberra weren’t able to make more out of the position and possession. In good ball they tested their opposition, and to be fair looked more tenacious and connected than in previous weeks. When Matt Timoko got the ball with more than a step before the defence he looked unstoppable. But it wasn’t enough, and Timoko remained the only aspect of the Raiders attack that looked constantly impressive.

In short for the all the intent and pace they played with they couldn’t find more complete attack. The Warriors jammed outside-in hard and it meant the Green Machine had to rely on their edges to make hay. Jarrod Croker and Seb Kris both got caught with ball on leftward shifts. Jack Wighton was forced to tuck and run more than he wanted to. Hudson Young had moments (and over 100 metres on the ground) and between him and Jack it felt like they went close to the line three or four times. But they never got there. Heading the other way the Milk were intent on getting Timoko early ball. When they did good things happened. But for the most part they were stuck playing through the middle third, separated from their wider brethren by a defence intent on forcing Canberra back from the posts.

It meant that for all that good position and possession the Milk couldn’t manufacture points – at least not through their traditional offence. Young picked up a loose ball and ran fifty odd metres to score. Fogarty put a kick on the spot for Jordan Rapana for another try. A further try should have come via the penalty version when a swinging arm from Watene-Zelezniak hit Kris in the face and led to an error in the scoring motion. The Raiders didn’t even get a penalty. Lord knows how. In the meantime questions remained about their ability to manufacture points in the red zone, not in the least because of their inability to play with width from the ruck (Tom Starling I’m looking in your direction).

And you saw the last two minutes of chaos. It wasn’t until the last play of regulation that the Raiders were able to put together a regulation sweeping movement that got around a jam that had disrupted their attack all game. Given more time (or more appetite for risk in extra time) a different outcome may have been possible. The story of a season: the middle kicked in the door, the tools for taking advantage of that were oblivious. But the Green Machine could never perfect the movement. Let’s hope the last minute aspect applies to the season as well as this game.

That Canberra found a way to equality was impressive, and indicative that they’re not a hopeless case. But nor are they perfected and ready for the big time. They were still a victim of their own ineptitude, but this time it was circumstantial, variable, moments that can be fixed and adjusted, rather than structures both permanent and ongoing. Whereas past victories had done nothing but create trepidation, this loss instead provided an understanding of what is possible.

Their opposition had no such issues. They were relentless in their targeting of Canberra’s left edge. They created all their points heading in this direction. Hudson Young pushed in way too early to create the gap the Warriors first try came through. Albert Hopoate was too late to come in on the second try. On the third there was little that could be done in the face of a near perfect movement from the opposition.

It’s not that Canberra’s defence was bad – their goal line was quality, and rode waves of pressure from a quality attacking side. Seb Kris is quietly turning into a budget Charnze with his relentless effort on hopeless cases – and he turned away two moments that would have killed the game. Elsewhere there was bite and muscle in contact, and they didn’t win every moment but enough that it should have mattered. It was good, but not enough. And between the defensive lapses and other issues there were just too many incidences where they needed to be better but weren’t.

In this game it was the poor defensive reads, Croker missing a game winning kick from the sideline, Fogarty’s first set bomb in golden point that went too deep and set up the Warriors with the tackles and field position needed to set up the game winning field goal. Too many late-set infringements put pressure on a defence that was already working at 100 per cent to keep their opposition out. Moments. It didn’t feel structural – though their attack, while seemingly more swift and cohesive, still lacked punch. These matters are week to week. Fixable.

To an extent what was revealed was proof positive of the limits of this team. As if we don’t know. The Raiders battled through the middle, but couldn’t find the killer blows in good position. They defended with effort and intent, but were found out in cohesion and connection in the face of a better organised football team. They played energetic, fast football. Fast-moving and powerful through the middle, targeting their opposition with a relentless array of power and agility . But they couldn’t land the killer blow.

So they spent the last quarter of the game firing indiscriminately in hope. It came off with seconds to go. The two manufactured tries spoke more to the lack of creativity and inventiveness of the spine in the previous 78 minutes of good ball. Canberra rarely got outside their oppositions jam for the bulk of the evening. With nothing to lose first a kick, another kick, and then a shift, got them the modicum of space needed to find points. It spoke to both their determination but also of the frustration the previous 78 minutes hard wrought. Why was *this* moment the time it came off, and why did it take near a full game for it to work out?

If we learned anything in this game it’s that the Raiders deserve to be in the conversation with the top eight sides but also that there’s more needed. The Warriors are very good, and poked at Canberra’s weaknesses like Commodus searching for gaps in Maximus’ ribs. The Green Machine not only handled the pain, but hung in and fought their way to parity. It may be who they are: an imperfect football team unable to perfect what it takes to dominate. But one can’t question their heart. Their execution? Sure. The game plan? Still too conservative. They’re a decent footy team and they’ll fight. That is unquestionable.

The question is now whether they can improve.

So I’ve had several pints and I‘m squinting while I write this. The least you can do is do is like oour page on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, or share this on social media. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.