BY DAN

It’s a weird time to be a Raiders fan.

After winning 10 of 12 you’d think we’d be cock-a-hoop (sidenote: did you know that term is probably a reference to getting really liquored up?). But if you lick your finger (gross) and sticky it (no not there) in the air you’ll feel the violent breath of a thousand fans venting at the inability of the side to do anything but keep the nation’s defibrillation manufacturers in business.

We haven’t been immune from this. Our review of the Raiders first double-digit victory of the season was probably as scathing as we’ve been. For a team that has hardly been bathing in success it’s a peculiar situation. Here is a team winning, but there’s this feeling of impermanence that comes from the nature of these victories. A feeling that Canberra’s record is better than they are.

This is reflected if you get into the fancy stats. Over at the Maroonobserver.com (sign up for his mailing list I beg and/or implore you), Liam calculated the Raiders Pythagorean expectation before Friday (a statistic that basically uses for and against to predict wins and account for luck) as historically off the chain:

Canberra are currently on pace to finish with 3.3 wins over their Pythagorean expectation. Only the 2003 Panthers (+3.5), 2006 Storm (+3.6) and 2007 Cowboys (+4.4) had bigger outperformances. Two of them topped the ladder and one won a premiership. There are seven teams that underperformed by a greater margin, the best being the 2002 Eels and the most recent, the 2008 Cowboys. We haven’t seen a discrepancy like this in 15 years

The Maroon Observer

Now while your takeaway might be to book tickets to Sydney for the first weekend in October, but the stat itself suggests the Raiders are playing with fire and it wouldn’t be unfair to wonder if Canberra can actually sustain this level of winning given their host of flaws. The chaotic and mystifying game on Friday was a perfect example of all these faults.

That doesn’t mean Canberra are bad, or for that matter incapable of improving to the point their level of play matches their record. And in amongst the rubble of Friday the Raiders unearthed some successes (and otherwise) that will help them improve for the future, hopefully helping them make the finals or better, and even helping them into next year.

First of all Trey Mooney was finally unleashed. It wasn’t for significant game time (25 minutes) but in that time he looked ready for more opportunities. 9 runs for 105 metres was heavily influenced by a break he was part of, and in that movement he looked fast, powerful and skilled. But he got through plenty of work, looked physically dominant on carries, and was a threat to offload on every carry (I swear I saw him offload in a tackle but NRL.com’s stats tell me that was just my lying eyes). He also passed the ball well through the middle, something the Raiders desperately needed in Corey Horsburgh’s absence.

Combined with the continued progress of Ata Mariota this performance could be a critical part of the side turning their unstable success into a more sustainable version in the turn into the finals. A big part of what has ailed the Raiders has been the drop-off that has occurred through the middle forty minutes of games while Joe Tapine and Josh Papalii have been on the bench. The bench rotations haven’t had the impact one would have hoped, and this has only been compounded by confusing decisions by Coach Stuart to overplay the starting rotation or rely on smoke-and-mirrors approaches (like playing Tom Starling at 13, or Jack Wighton at 13, or Matt Frawley at all). At least one of Mooney and Mariota (if not both) should be on Stuart’s bench going forward, ending the ‘carry a random and unused back’ experiment. This would provide balance and impact in the middle rotation, potentially mitigating the Raiders infuriating penchant for letting teams back into it.

Another thing we saw on Friday that could potentially be instructive over the next few weeks was Zac Woolford getting through 80 minutes of footy. For reasons we’ll never know Zac started the season outside the 17, but each week he plays he shows how important he is to this side. On Friday three tries (Rapa’s first, Timoko’s first and Kris’ game sealer) were heavily influenced by excellent reads he made from the ruck, showing open and then heading to the short-side where the numbers were. These reads are top-notch work from a hooker, and while I’m sure he’d love that second-half grubber back, he generally showed he could play quality footy for 80 minutes.

Now I don’t think this means the Raiders can’t or shouldn’t carry Tom Starling (or another hooker option) on the bench. It’s rare that teams will expect a hooker to go for the full 80. The weight of tackling, and the responsibility to make quick reads and tough decisions in attack under fatigue, mean most teams will carry a second ruck option out of necessity. But that Woolford can go 80 if needed should mean that the Raiders can be more circumspect about how they make that rotation. On Friday it meant Sticky played them together, and while I don’t think it worked then, more options are better than less. At the very least Tom Starling can defend about as well as Damian Cook at centre if needed (sarcastically insert laughing/crying emoji).

The final thing that became clear on Friday that may not seem positive (but undoubtedly was) was the abject capitulation of the left edge with the insertion of Matt Frawley. Call it the canary in the coal mine, the engine light doing it’s glow-stick dance, the blue screen of death. It was clear that however Canberra solve the twin issues of replacing Jack Wighton and whether Jarrod Croker can keep this frankly inspirational effort going beyond this season cannot be solved with Matt Frawley (as I saw suggested here).

Frawley isn’t agile enough to handle the power and pace of first grade attackers in space. It puts too much pressure on the defence outside him to solve his problems. At this stage of his career Jarrod Croker’s defence works as part of cohesive system with Jack Wighton (witness how that edge suddenly stopped leaking like Operation Chastise when he returned to his normal spot after the 63rd minute try to the Dragons). Even with the likely return of Seb Kris to left centre next year, Friday proved what everyone should already know. Matt Frawley is a stand-up clubman, a wonderful mentor to emerging halves and a handy break-glass-in-case-of-emergency player. He cannot be the every round starter. The good news is that if the Raiders were harboring any thoughts of that for next year they should now be alleviated of such misgivings.

So while the last few weeks hasn’t been good the silver linings is that Canberra keep learning how to get better while winning. 11 wins is a crap-ton (they’re currently ahead of where the 2016, 2019 and 2020 teams were) and if they heed the lessons learned over the last few weeks to improve then perhaps what is now a mirage can become an oasis.

A man can dream anyway.

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