BY DAN

As part of the ongoing negotiations to get Simi Sasagi in the door early, the Knights and Raiders have been discussing potential player swaps. Canberra should be very wary here, and keep an eye on their long-term goals. This is not a deal for Bent Hunt. Simi Sasagi isn’t the difference between winning the comp or not in 2023. Patience is needed.

As we wrote last week Simi Sasagi coming to the Milk is an fascinatingly different but potentially useful gamble on the Raiders behalf. Essentially they are taking someone who has mostly been an outside back in both Cup and first grade and use them to cover the myriad of weaknesses and limitations of Canberra’s edge and middle rotation. This provides backup for the edge players that are suffering from ill-health and age, and adding potential mobility to a pack that only has one mode of winning at the moment.

But it’s a risk. Sasagi has been hanging around the edge of first grade in search of a way in. He’s come through juniors as a half, is now an outside back, and is being asked to transition to the pack. It’s no sure thing. That’s fine – to an extent i’m impressed at the ingenuity of Joel Carbone and Don Furner to manufacture an option where there are dwindling options on the open market. It also shows a desire to be more agile in their strategic approach to the game, introducing more than ‘win the middle or lose the game’ to their arsenal.

Given the risk and the lack of certainty of it Canberra need to be clear about what they are getting – a dice roll – and what they are being asked to give up. Last week word emerged about Trey Mooney potentially being part of the swap (something the Canberra Times reported was rejected by the club). In addition both Danny Levi and Tom Starling were asked for by the Knights.

None of these options are worth the risk of Sasagi. Most obvious here is Mooney. Losing him would be a terrible outcome for the Raiders. While still developing, he has only just begun to touch the edges of what he’s capable of. After spending too long wasting his time on the edge the Raiders had finally allowed him some consistent minutes in the middle this year and he had responded, averaging 150 plus a game and over 6 tackle breaks a game over the last month he played. He’s consistently proved he was too good for NSW Cup footy, and it is only a matter of time before he was part of the next generation of Raiders’ middles with Ata Mariota and Hohepa Puru. Giving a potential star up for a guy the club hopes will be a useful squad member is insanity and was rightly rejected.

Danny Levi and Tom Starling were also sought, presumably as backups to the oft-injured Jayden Brailey. While we questioned the need to carry four hookers in the 30 man roster the Levi injury and Adrian Trevilyan’s ongoing recovery have highlighted the need for options at this critical position. While I am not personally attached to either Levi or Starling, the club clearly is (Sticky loves Levi, and the club is in the process of extending Starling), and first grade quality rakes hardly grow on trees. Both are experienced and both will play first grade for Canberra at some point next year. There’s no guarantee Sasagi does.

Are there other players Canberra can pass off this year in order to get Sasagi onboard to address those issues? After Semi Valemei’s departure to the Cows, Adrian Trevilyan and Clay Webb are the only members of the top 30 that haven’t played first grade this year, and both may have if their health had coincided with the Raiders’ need. One of the Milk’s issues right now is lack of depth, and many options are likely to exacerbate that as much as Sasagi’s arrival ameliorates it. Of the players that could arguably be spared it seems likely their value is higher to the Green Machine than the Knights.

The only thing that might force a deal is how desperate Canberra are to address their top heavy line-up in the forwards. Their structure is holding together like a Jamaican bobsled right now and if they don’t find health, or depth, soon it could all come crashing down (noting that with the second worst defence and most tries conceded in the competition it’s hardly running smoothly right now). The Raiders may be keen to give up a prospect in order to sure up their present.

I would caution against this. Even if Sasagi does what is expected and add depth and dimension to the Raiders pack he’s unlikely to be a solution. In short he’s not the difference between sunshine and rain for this season. Giving up a very good prospect to solve a problem of fit seems like a short-sighted way to build a roster. If the club are building for a premiership it’s in the future and they’re better off focusing on keeping talent than papering over existing cracks. If *this* is your solution then you’ve cut off your face to spite your nose.

But their lack of success in the free agency market may just be forcing them into a corner. Canberra have tried and failed with Eli Katoa, David Fifita and Teig Wilton. Rumours around other approaches are out there feel forlorn and more evident of the Raider Raise in action than anything plausible. Sasagi may actually not be depth, but rather a bridge until the Green Machine can develop another edge forward. That may lead them to give up other projects in order to get him here as soon as possible.

Either way the Raiders would be wise to be patient. Sasagi is on his way to Canberra for 2024 and will hopefully be a part of solving their edge issues for the future. Even if he can get there now there’s no guarantee he’s ready to play big minutes in the middle or in the backrow in order to solve the problems that exist there now. Hopefully Canberra is smart enough to know that.

Do me a favour and like the page on Facebook, follow me on Twitter, or share this on social media because we are just children of the earth trying to find a way home. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.