BY DAN

For the last few weeks the Canberra Raiders middle forwards have been exhausting their efforts. In Sunday’s win against the Roosters Corey Horsburgh played 64 minutes straight and collapsed on the sideline with cramps when he left, and he hasn’t played less than sixty minutes since round 5. Joe Tapine has cracked 60 minutes in a game three weeks in a row before Sunday. Josh Papalii – at 31 – has been the second best prop on the field (and sometimes the best) in every game he’s played this season. These three have big a big part of Canberra’s success. Now one of those big three is likely to be out a short while.

That’s because it’s likely they’ll be without Papalii for the short term after he left the game on Sunday with a hamstring strain. Hamstrings are never a quick recovery, let alone when you’re a 30 plus year old prop. While no results have been announced his failure to finish the game makes it likely the Milk will be without the big guy for the next few weeks at least. The fickleness, and potential for reinjury with hamstrings make it a near guarantee he’ll miss some time. Papalii may be made of cement but if the Raiders have any interest in maintaining his long-term health they won’t be rushing him back before the next bye, meaning at a minimum he’d miss the next two games (against the Titans and the Dragons).

Update: as we suspected, Papalii will not return until after the bye.

This is a challenge because of the reliance on him, along with Tapine and Horsburgh to bear the brunt of responsibility for Canberra’s success. We’ve pointed out regularly this year that the the Milk have struggled in games where they don’t establish middle dominance, and without Papalii this will be harder. Given they’re already red-lining Horsburgh and Tapine they can hardly push them any further. This is further complicated in the next few weeks by the potential absence of Hudson Young and Big Red for Origin duties.

The obvious solution is to bring Ata Mariota in. He’s looked like a prospect worth developing in relatively limited opportunities this year. Despite not getting more than 25 minutes in any game this season he’s proven a handful and has still managed to pile up decent metres in those games. It’s trite to say he’s a similar player to Papalii, but it’s hard not to see it. Both made of granite, both utilising quick feet in the line to find cracks in the defence and let their power do the rest. I suspect Coach Stuart will make that swap, promote either Emre Guler or Pasami Saulo to the starting line-up and leave it at that.

In my view that would be a mistake. The middle has been holding on by a thread in recent weeks. Depending on how you count these things somewhere around 60 per cent of the tries scored against the Milk in the last three rounds have been through the middle. These have overwhelmingly come late in games as the middle collapses under the strain of carrying the weight of a side with a host of imperfections elsewhere.

In short they need more support. Without Papalii Mariota becomes a neccessity. But Stuart should also consider the more obvious solution of a further middle on the bench to provide either impact or defensive support while Big Papa is out. There are obvious options in bringing in another prop. I’d prefer Trey Mooney, both in his performance in Cup footy before his hand injury but also in his ability to cover on the edge (in an absolute pinch – I think think the club is insane if they see his future there). But he’s only due back this round, and it seems a big step to ask him to make the jump to first grade with no match fitness.

Peter Hola is also available. He’s been playing major minutes in Cup footy and cracking 100m each game with ease. Hohepa Puru is also an option and as a Hohepaholic I’d love to see it. While I’d prefer a patient approach given Puru is still developing a first grade body (this is his first year in consistent Cup footy after all). One would also note it may not allow him to use his best skills as a distributor, and thus it’s not putting him in the best place to succeed. But Canberra have been desperate for a bit of offensive variability and mobility through their middle. It may only be 20 minutes at a time but it may be worth the risk. At the very least you’ll learn how far Puru has to go physically before next season.

But these hopes are likely forlorn. It seems more likely that pressed into a corner Sticky will dig deeper into his current modus operandi. He’ll see justification for keeping a back on the bench due to the need that has come from Head Injury Assessments for both Jordan Rapana and Jarrod Croker in recent times. Without Corey Harawira-Naera’s ability to push out wide, Canberra have been bereft of an easily solution there. You can see why they’re interested in getting Simi Sasagi on board.

That is a mistake in my view. Canberra can’t lose Papalii and simply carry on. They’ve had a few weeks now where they’ve succeeded despite the structural weakness being caused by an exhausted middle. They need reinforcement, and they need it in numbers.

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