BY ROB

We’re deep into this NRL season now. Origin is all but finished (I’m watching Game 2 of the Women’s series as I write this – I cannot wait for them to have their own three game contest) and the weather in Canberra is now officially bone-achingly, face-freezingly cold.

We’re at the beginning of the pointy end, the bit where legit teams begin to pull away from those just muddling their way through to an early September holiday. The question is do the Raiders book flights now, or hold off in the hope that they might be in possession of a seat when the music stops at the end of round 27?

This round is a sliding doors moment for Canberra. If they lose this round they’ll instantly drop out of the 8, due to the particular draw for the round. In fact their only chance of staying in the top half of the table is beating the Roosters (preferably by a good margin so they can whittle down that awful negative differential).

As pointed out on Blake & the Pork this game sees the worst attack in the NRL (Roosters) go up against one of the more mediocre defensive outfits (Raiders). If Canberra are to prevail they need to banish the gremlins from the Warriors game and embrace the mentality that helped bring down the likes of Brisbane and the Bunnies.

To this end some hard truths need to be heard, or read. Wighton needs to cede organisational control to Fog. We all love Jack but he’s not an organising 6, rather a hyper-instinctual creature who needs to be relieved of the pressures of directing play. Canberra works much better when Fog is orchestrating.

My next gripe is two pronged – the hooking dilemma which directly feeds into the bench make-up. Anyone who thinks that the Green Machine doesn’t grind to a halt once Woolford is off needs a HIA pronto. Starling is currently unable to supply either quick distribution or punchy scoots from dummy half and it’s hurting. Either give Levi another run, bring in Trevilyan (pending health) or find another way to give “Germ” a spell without getting stuck in mud.

The bench. Oh the bench. No wonder the props are getting gassed. To sacrifice one spot for a backup hooker is a calculated risk, but filling another with a backline player who’s currently nowhere near his best form is just madness. I understand the desire for a backline insurance policy (especially given how much poor Jordy seems to be getting hit in the head in recent games) but anything less than three props or two props/one second rower is insanity.

If there is a shining light that isn’t a slowly approaching TrainLink service it’s that the Roosters are possibly in worse stead than the Raiders. They only just managed to fend off the fast-finishing Dogs last week, and their individual fitness levels currently range from “A bit old and tired” to “Aaarrggh my face”. They’ve scored the least points of any side so far, hopefully a trend they’ll continue on Sunday.

If Canberra want to really shut them down they need to pressure the Tri-colours 6 and 7. Keary (if he does play) will surely be a bit ginger when it comes to contact, while young Sandon Smith is still warming to his role. Mix in a five day turnaround for Tedesco from Origin for an extra pressure point.

The best game plan for Canberra is corners – kick to them and pin the Chooks down. Kick on tackle 4, if you’re deep enough, and either catch wingers napping or tire out the big boppers by turning them around set after set. Look for those players with hands on hips or heads, the ones trying to suck in oxygen and run at them. Punch through the middle before dragging them across field and back again.

Team list thoughts

It’s the same 17 that went down to the Warriors, which may cause concern for more than a few fans. They have however had the luxury of a bye, and hopefully several extra video sessions to get their heads around key mission elements (run straight, not diagonal/sideways).

If this 17 can’t get it done this round some player list tweaking needs to happen.

Match-ups

Jamal Fogarty vs Luke Keary. The Raiders need to make every effort to get Fog back behind the wheel. When he touches the ball multiple times per set Canberra gains much more direction, structure and cohesion, something they lack when Snack Eighton starts running towards the sidelines on 45° angles. Keary, if even playing, is a half entering his twilight, fighting off the grim spectres of age and injury. He can still be a threat though, particularly if given time and space to set up kicks and passes.

Predictions

It’s the make-or-break point for the Raiders. Lose and they’ll be outside the 8 looking in, win and they’ll possibly stay in seventh spot. If they want to be taken seriously they themselves need to take this next 80 minutes seriously. They can’t afford not to.

Raiders by 10 because why not!?

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