BY DAN

In the lead up to last weekend’s bye Canberra was running on fumes.

A highly targeted injury crisis at the one position they didn’t really have depth to cover rippled its impact across the side. Elliott Whitehead, Corey Harawira-Naera and Hudson Young missed games for various reasons. Corey Horsburgh had to play on at backrow, which put more pressure in minutes and playing style on Joey Taps and Josh Papalii. The Tigers and Warriors games became a referendum on anything but football; instead a plebiscite on whether Jarrod Croker should get to celebrate his 300 at home.

The Tigers win seemed to take a lot out of them, both emotionally and physically. That Wests side was cresting as high as they will this season. The Raiders were both lucky to win and unlucky it was that close. By the time the Warriors game rolled around they needed the rest. The winning run ended disappointingly against a team that refused to buckle, and played with a precision and patience Canberra could have matched three weeks earlier, but after a chaotic period were unable to muster.

The two games before the bye (one loss, one which felt like a loss), combined with the need to maximise their performance in order to scrap wins, worried plenty (including these pages). Josh Papalii and Joe Tapine were still doing their job, as well as papering over the cracks of so many others in a way that wasn’t sustainable (is it any surprise they missed 13 tackles between them in the Tigers game?). Corey Horsburgh had his least good efforts over that period (they weren’t bad performances, just not as good as earlier in the season). Wighton reverted to ‘Dragons’ Jack rather than the guy that had beaten the Bunnies weeks before. Jamal Fogarty had basically created all the Raiders points against the Tigers then barely touched the ball against the Warriors. Seb Kris, returning from injury had arguably his worst outing of the season, seemingly rushed back while the heir apparent watched…Cup footy?

Still it meant that between their first and second bye they won five and lost two, taking them to eight wins and six losses for the season. While they may have overperformed their ability – the Pythagorean win expectation with having them at five wins and nine losses instead – the wins picked up along the way have put them in good stead, provided they are honest about what they need to improve (such as their edge defence, and an over-reliance on the work of the middle in dominating in attack).

The second bye couldn’t have come at a better time. A moment to rest for the middles, a chance to work on key aspects of the game for everyone else. The coaches have a full two weeks to game-plan for solving their problems, and in the meantime everyone that’s hurting gets that little bit closer to a more normal squad.

A new test awaits. Canberra now has three games before their final bye of the season. Eight points are up for grabs, of which they are guaranteed two (huzzah? Bye-points are weird). The ladder is still clustered – the Raiders are a win out of 3rd and a win ahead of 14th. In the next three weeks they play two teams below them in that cluster (Roosters away, and Titans at home) and the Dragons, presumably without Ben Hunt who will be away for Origin. It’s not a period that will sink their season, but grabbing as many wins as possible will be the right way to end the final act of the regular rounds in the best position. It feels like the top of the competition is preparing to separate itself from the rest. It’s time to go with the breakaway and not get stuck with the peloton.

But more than just out-and-out ladder position it’s a chance to see if Canberra have improved. We saw dramatic improvement in the attack between the week before the first bye and after (17.4 ppg round 1-7, 24.6 ppg round 9-15). But this is still the 4th worst attack in the competition on total tries scored. That’s largely due to the anemic 2.8 tries a game they scored through the first seven rounds of the competition. The 3.7 they’ve scored since is better, but would only be 12th best in the league had it been their season long output. Still, it speaks to an improvement made in the attack they’ll need to mirror on both sides of the ball when they come out next Sunday against the Roosters.

They still rely too much on kicking the door in through the middle. They score 39 per cent of their tries through the middle third (per statsinsider.com.au), more than anyone else. That’s not inherently bad but more highlights the challenge they have in effectively targeting edge defences with shape and structure without the space afforded by a dominant middle. This is particularly the case in the redzone, where if a middle doesn’t win a quick play the ball or bend the line any structured movement takes on the appearance of a pickle sliding down the window at Maccas (it was the 90s man, it was a different time).

The defence (23.4 points per game conceded between round 1-7, 28.7 ppg round 8-15) was bad and got worse. It is in desperate need of a tune up too. 42 per cent of the tries they concede are on their right edge (per statsinsider.com). That’s not that surprising. Most teams attack more effectively to their left (or the defence’s right), and other teams have much worse proportional ‘weaknesses’. But almost none allow as many tries as the Milk. They have conceded 65 tries this year, second most in the league in total and most in per game average. No matter how many competition points you’ve banked defence like that will see you eventually found out. Given the clumps of teams Canberra can’t vibe this one in.

This can only be fixed with certainty at those edge positions, and better coverage inside out. The Raiders edge defence will improve with health and time, but there’s still weakness there, particularly on the right. Strong middle defence that comes from less fatigue won’t solve the problem but it can be helpful in limiting exposure for the edges. Let’s hope more trust is put in Mariota and Saulo in particular. I’m not sure how else you mend the wings of this plane in turbulent skies. There’s enough experienced people involved that you hope they have a solution.

So strap in. These next three weeks are going to tell an important story of improvement (or otherwise). If Canberra can fix their issues they’re strongly positioned for a run. They’ve done the desperate work through the first half of the season. They’ve collected the inches all around them and they’re adding up. But if they haven’t made the necessary tweaks the only thing they’re built for is disappointment.

Do me a favour and like the page on Facebook, follow me on Twitter, or share this on social media because it’s the virtual equivalent of the ‘raising the roof’ dance and we need that right now. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.