By Dan

A week of team-list chaos, some driven by injury and some by their own hand, has crested with the announcement that Seb Kris would miss Friday night’s game against the Tigers.

It wasn’t surprising in a sense. Kris looked properly hurt in the game against Souths last weekend. He left in the first half, unable to move with any freedom in what looked like a knee injury. He never returned even though the Raiders really could have used him. Given how hard he has worked at literally everything to do with rugby league that suggested it was a proper injury. But he was named, and Coach Stuart insisted he was good to go in media availability this week.

I’m not sure what changed – either the Coach’s story or Kris’s health – but the outcome was the same. As of writing we don’t know how serious the Seabass’s injury is but the assumption is that he should be right to go for the next game. That assumption is built on the basis that he just missed the race against time this week. But if we suddenly hear something more serious emerge we will be equally unsurprised and upset. It’s a big deal for the Milk. Since the bye their attack has looked functional or even borderline good at times, and the cohesion between Seb and the spine has been a big part of that. Whoever occupies the position tomorrow night will have big shoes to fill.

Harley Smith-Shields has been named at fullback but I am highly sceptical that he’ll play there. Not that he couldn’t do the job given time but more that he hasn’t played that position any time recently. If Seb Kris was the backup to Xavier Savage before the season started, and Elijah Anderson was the option in Cup footy, then it suggests that it’s been a while since Smith-Shields has been a part of the club’s thinking there. Given Smith-Shields started the season in the top line and was dropped back to Cup footy to regain his confidence and to work on his defence, it would be brazenly unfair to bring him up to first grade to play out of position at a spot that requires an strong ability to read the game and organise the defence. Luke Brooks isn’t a star but he’s got a good boot on him, and hardly someone you want a young gun trying to find his feet against.

It seems more likely to me that Jordan Rapana will fill in at the back. This would see Albert Hopoate shift to the wing, and Harley Smith-Shields play at left centre. That’s where he’s played most of his senior footy, and given the Raiders actually played a good chunk of last week with Rapana at the back, is actually a set-up that they’re familiar with and have proven success with. Jordy was a part of several good movements on shifts, particularly to the left, and always finds a way to get around the ball. He’s relatively safe under the high ball and a loud organising voice in defence. The major restriction with him and fullback has always been his body, but if it’s only one week then that will make a degree of sense.

There are a bunch of questions that flow from this decision and the most obvious is what is going on with Xavier Savage. In the Cup footy I’ve seen he hasn’t been a world-beater but he was still easing himself back from a broken jaw. But this season Coach Stuart has shown a desire to reward form rather than potential. It was why Kris was initially kept in the side over Savage, and it was why Albert Hopoate appears to have found himself ahead of Nic Cotric in the depth chart (and even allowed to take a week off to go to a wedding!).

My best explanation is that Smith-Shields’ form has been better in Cup footy than Savage has been, and thus earned his recall. Harley cracked 194m on the ground last week and six tackle breaks, and has averaged 184m and near five tackle breaks a game over the last five weeks. If his defence is good enough then it’s actually a good time to bring him in. Given Albert Hopoate has been named at centre (you can see his defensive exploits at centre here) it’s probably a step up regardless.

In addition to form, I suspect part of this is a bet that what has driven success in recent weeks is the structures and familiarity they’ve built. That the system is driving the gains and that Smith-Shields is a more seamless part of that system than Savage. Given it was only last week that we started to accept there was a system that’s a big bet by the Milk.

There will be a worry here of what is going on with Savage. For the Raiders the short-term question becomes whether the speed of Savage is not valued, or if the weaknesses (such as defence) are viewed as outweighing the benefits of playing him. This was a player that was seen as a key part of the attack last year, and seemed poised for, if not a break out season, then at least a re-confirmation and consolidation of what we saw prior. Again it’s explained by putting value in output over style, but if you can’t play your theoretical first-choice fullback when there’s a starting fullback spot available, well, what is going on?

Savage has only made the one appearance this year, and it wasn’t even at his preferred position. If the decision is about form then it suggests that X has taken a step back from the back-half of last year. If that’s the case I don’t consider it something to stress about. In these pages we have often emphasised the non-linear nature of development of talent. Smith-Shields himself is a good example of this. There is plenty of time for Savage; he’s only 21, and signed with the club until the end of 2025. There’s a long-game being played here.

Canberra started this week putting together a puzzle, only to flip the table and start again. It’s hardly ideal preparation for what is such a trap game the soundtrack may as well be written by T.I. Stuart has pushed his chips in on Harley Smith-Shields, and his existing structures, to get the job done this week. I hope he’s right.

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