BY DAN

Watching the first week of the finals felt like watching two different competitions. The intensity, physicality and skill shown by the Roosters, Storm, Broncos and Cowboys made it almost embarssing to watch the other games. The gap between the pretenders and the contenders is wide my friends and leaping it is going to be a stretch. But first….

We say goodbye to: the Bunnies and the Dragons.

You could argue that the Bunnies suffered ‘year after’ syndrome but you’d be wrong. More than anything, they missed men in the middle of the park (notably one Burgess all season and another for the final) as they got trampled by Gallen (239 all run metres), Tupou and Fifita.

With Isaac Luke (and John Sutton to an extent) missing they lacked any creativity around the ruck, and Inglis’ knee prevented him from playing any meaningful part in the game. This meant that the Sharks had no difficulties swallowing up most of their disjointed attack. They’ve got a glaring hole to find a hooker next year when Luke heads across the Tasman, but I’ve a sneaky suspicion they might get an extra Burgess next year.

Poor Gareth Widdop proved the concept of ‘clutch’ is a hilarious fallacy, calmly slotting a penalty to send the game into overtime, before putting a clearing kick out on the full to set up the game winner for Josh Reynolds. Despite marginally underperforming their Pythagorean win expectation by just under a win, I contend that this side overachieved this year. Listening to Ray Warren talk about 2005 Benji Marshall was like listening to someone talk about the hot people they used to date back in the day even as they struggle to pick out the chip crumbs from their exploding beer belly – awkward and laughable. The only place Benji Marshall is an elite half is in the minds of the Channel 9 commentary team, who to be fair haven’t moved on from 2005. There is so much ‘meh’ in this forward pack (outside of Ty Frizell. We love Ty Frizell). They’ll be around the 8 next year, but this team will never win a premiership.[1]

Pretenders

The Sharks

Table position: 6^th (14 wins)

Pythagorean expectation position: 9^th (11.8 wins)

I think the Sharks are making a mockery of Pythagorean expectation. They traumatised the Bunnies defence in the middle and at the edges, scoring most of their tries one or two passes from the ruck. This is largely because Michael Ennis is their only source of creativity, expertly sending the big runners of the Sharks at the outside shoulders of the weak defenders.

If there’s a defence remaining that this tactic will work against, it’s the Cowboys. The Cows struggled to beat the Raiders twice this year, and outside of Blake Austin, the Raiders attack almost mirrors the Sharks’ strategy perfectly. Both rely on skilled hookers sending big ball runners at the edges of the defence for points. Will it work again? Probably not. After all, the Raiders still lost both games to the Cowboys (in ridiculously depressing circumstances). And of course, the Cows also struggled with the Sharks, losing to them twice this season.

The Bulldogs

Table Position: 5^th (14 wins)

Pythagorean expectation position: 5^th (13.1 wins)

First things first. The pass from James Graham to Brett Morris that lead to the first try of the match was so erotic I immediately had to go change my pants. That’s why people rave about James Graham, even as he raves about pretty much everything (seriously dude. Just be quiet. For five minutes). But apart from that, the Doggies vaunted attack never really showed up. Against the Roosters they face an opponent they are simply not good enough to beat.

The Contenders

The Cowboys

Table Position: 3rd (17 wins)

Pythagorean expectation: 4th (15.5 wins).

The game between the Cowboys and the Broncos was played at a speed reminiscent of Origin. As for most things Cows, everything revolved around the play of Jonathon Thurston, who set up about three disallowed tries and scored a legitimate one himself.

The Cowboys have a lot of big boys across the park. With Scott, Tamou, Hannant and Taumololo manning the middle in defence, the Cowboys have the horses (oh yeah) to keep the ball-runners quiet close to the ruck. But at the back end of the game they will be tired, and keeping out Fifita, Tamou and Gallen around the ruck will increase in difficulty as the game wears on. Thurston will have to make sure the game is well and truly settled by then. And if they can convert some of those ‘nearly’ tries into actual tries, it will be.

The Broncos

Table position: 2nd (17 wins)

Pythagorean expectation: 2nd (17.5 wins)

The Broncos’ defence was astounding last weekend. In a game that had more speed than your local dealer, the defence proved resolute, holding out one of the top three attacks in the league for the majority of the night. But the Cowboys bombed a couple and if they’d held onto those the Broncos wouldn’t have been enjoying the break.

The Storm

Table Position: 4^th (14 wins)

Pythagorean Expectation 3^rd (16.0 wins)

The Storm played a Roosters team missing Mitchell Pearce and just straight up beat them at their own game. The Storm took a predictable but powerful and sharp attack and just wrestled it to death. Munster proved excellent again, and Cronk and Smith showed their class all game. In particular Smith’s ball out of dummy-half for the Storm’s first try of the second half was gorgeous, cutting out a couple of defenders and landing on a runner hitting a gap.

The Winner

Table position: 1^st (18 wins)

Pythagorean expectation: 1^st (20 wins)

Look. We were as shocked (and happy) as any of you that the Roosters lost last week. But even in losing they looked tremendous. Each try they scored was a thing of beauty and even without Mitchell Pearce they looked sharp across the backline.

They are going to make the Doggies look like amateurs I fear.

(How’s that for a reverse jinx?)

[1] Oh yeah, I’m also predicting that Kevin Rudd won’t lead the ALP to the next election. I make all the bold calls.