BY DAN

Things are not good for the Canberra Raiders right now. 

One win and three losses is not a time to panic, but it certainly is a time to worry.

Coach Stuart is cycling through his usual process on this. This step – bartering – is the one where Stick admits the problem exists (they have the attention span of a toddler with a multiple sticks), but hopes that the solution lies within the roster. That is, we’re going to do what we do, just harder, and hopefully better. Strap yourself and hopefully feel the Gs. Or something.

The general tenor of Stuart’s comments post game suggest that we shouldn’t expect much change in the teamlist tomorrow.  The Coach has a tendency to give a team one-game extra beyond breaking point to prove themselves. Sometimes this leads to great moments, momentum changes and brilliance. Sometimes it just delays a fix. We won’t know which is which until this time next week. Maybe a resurrection will come this Easter Sunday. The only change we are expecting is the return of Josh Papalii, at the expense of Joe Roddy, which is a bit sad, because in limited minutes he didn’t embarrass himself.

As much as it pains me to admit, this is probably the best approach. This team is not playing well right now, and the outcomes and outputs are obvious. But maybe they are not as far off as we think. If you look at this from the Rugby League Eye Test, the Raiders expected points scored is better than most, and their expected points conceded bang on the median.

Despite no possession, no kind conditions, and general rubbishness, there is statistical evidence that they are better than equal worst defence, and fourth worst offence (as the for and against currently suggests). the League Eye Test’s categorisation puts them in the ‘inefficient/unlucky’ bucket in attack. In defence they have conceded 67.5 percent points over the expected through four rounds. They are evidently capable; both of being good, and of repeatedly stepping on rakes (urrrrrrgh).

The problem has been an abject inability to commit to the process, and detail, of the game in the way they had in 2025. This team is built on their ability to beat teams with pace and power from the tramlines in, only utilising their weapons on the outside when a team is a bloody pulp in the middle. 

This side has seemed intent on doing the reverse; so often not taking advantage of the gains to be made in the middle. In Vlandoball that’s a strategy that just makes the game harder for you. There’s so much easy money in the middle of the park, so much to lose from riskier footy. In the possession game that the current rules propagate, playing direct and safe is the way to go. Sure it’s boring, and you won’t get to see Simi Sasagi or Xavier Savage put the moves on people like they did on the weekend, but you’ll probably win more games. 

So it’s not so much change that’s needed, but a bit of trust in their strengths. Dance with what brung them, so to speak, rather than trying to get the new combinations on the outside to do the yeoman’s work. That would make everyone’s job easier, from Sanders to Strange to Savage. 

Of course, the attention to detail is the bit here. The Raiders can only thrust like Max Power if they’re holding on to the ball. On the weekend it was dropped in a range of frustrating ways. In the opening weeks of the season this could be blamed on a soapy ball, but on Sunday the dry ball still fell from their grasp when it shouldn’t have.

It seems trite to say, but maybe playing a bit of your dad’s footy (‘run it hard and straight you cowards’) is the solution here. Saying it easier than it happening, and as the coiner of the ‘Raider Raise’, Jack Cronin recently said on this podcast (vodcast?), this season has all the stink of 2017 on it already; an ultimately frustrating folly into finding infuriating ways for a otherwise talented team to fumble games.

But for a few weeks at least we can maintain the hope that this side can turn this around. The Raiders are in a valley right now, and the only way is to get climbing. The easiest way to do that is straight line rolling. They can play that game. But will they?  

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