BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders are in a difficult situation and the only way out is to keep doing what they’re doing, only better.

One win from three games. Upcoming fixtures against the Sharks, Bunnies and Storm over the next month. In a season where the game itself is on tilt, Canberra have been permanently running uphill, reacting to the agenda of others, rather than determining their own fate.

In each game they’ve faced a moment where they had to dig deep. In the Manly game they were down 14-0, not touching the ball in the first twelve minutes of the game. Against the Warriors Tom Starling threw an interception, turning attack into pain. Against the Dogs the opposition had a weight of possession on the Raiders line leading up to halftime.

At each moment it required Canberra show character. Resilience. A belief in the systems they built in the off-season. A willingness to embrace the battle and trust they could come back. Not panic. Just work.

In the Manly and Dogs games they trusted their work, won one, and should have won the second. For a good chunk of the Warriors game they did too. The collapse at the end and the points that resulted felt more a ‘terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day’ vibe than a ‘we are bad at footy vibe’. But the position they’re in cannot be avoided. As games have tested them, this *moment* in the season is a key point for them to stick to their plan, their processes and prove they can be a contender.

That doesn’t mean this is a win or give up the season moment. It’s far too early for that. Canberra have spent too much of this season playing footy in a puddle to know exactly whether they have a football team capable of 80 minutes of football. They’ve not even demonstrated they can swim for 80 minutes.

That means you would hope there is as little change as possible. There will likely be one forced by the absence of Josh Papalii. Against the Warriors the decision made was Matty Timoko on the end of the bench, with Simi Sasagi moving into the middle to cover as required late in the game. I suspect that will be the same approach in this game.

But there remains a greater than zero chance another approach will be taken. Joe Roddy will likely find his way into the 19 – though it’s not clear if he’ll be used. In Cup his role has been a big tackler, and a big connecting passer through the middle third. I think the Raiders could benefit from both of those things, so would love to see him get a shot.

While they don’t need to make major changes, it will be interesting to see how Coach Stuart handles Tom Starling and Jayden Brailey’s minutes. In the Thursday game Brailey got near 50 minutes. As we floated in the off-season, the offering is stability and certainty; making Ethan Sanders’ job easier. If one looks at this through Stuart’s eyes, the comfort with which Sanders organised the attack in the back fifty minutes of the game, compared to the more chaotic start, may lead him to lean more into Brailey.

Looming over (under?) this is the ongoing proof that Owen Pattie is just too good for Cup footy. Another 40-20, another try, another critical performance driving a near-comeback once the game was oriented around him and Daine Laurie in attack (after Coby Black left with a headknock). I know Stuart is reticent to play him off the bench, acknowledging the long-term benefits of him playing bulk footy. But I’m not sure he’s learning much in the lower levels. He’s just too good for it.

This question isn’t likely to be addressed this week. I expect Stick will name them in the same way and Starling will play the majority of the minutes. But if things get pear-shaped through the coming test, it may be Pattie who Stuart reaches for to turn the tide.

But that move is not necessary now. Canberra have to show patience and trust in what they are doing. A dry track (for the love of god please), belief that they have the processes and the enthusiasm to make an impact should be enough. The Raiders don’t need to panic. They do need to take control. This moment is difficult, not terminal. They just need to show a bit of resilience.

Again.

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