BY DAN

Coach Ricky Stuart’s second team list of the year brings with it necessary change and fascinating possibility.

Josh Papalii is out, and so is his most likely replacement in Matty Nicholson. In his place Morgan Smithies enters the starting line up, and Matty Timoko and Joe Roddy join the bench.

It’s an interesting response by Stuart. Having Joey Two Tries in the 19 suggests that Stuart is at least considering playing him. He’s a good match for the game. As we’ve mentioned before Roddy is a mobile middle with a motor out of Mordor (no I don’t know what I mean either). He’s exactly the kind of middle that suits this hyperdrive version of the game that the rules currently support.

He’ll be a workhorse in defence, which is a bigger deal than you might think. Papalii has an underrated defensive workload – in 2025 he had one of the highest tackles to minute ratios in the pack. Replacing him is critical: Canberra are a team that needs all defensive hands-on deck, and the rule changes only emphasise the need.

With possession going the wrong way on Saturday, Stick brought Morgan Smithies off the bench. He paired him with Corey Horsburgh (and later Zac Hosking) in an attempt to bolster the Milk’s middle defence. Now Smithies is starting, it doesn’t surprise me that Stuart wants another player that can help lock down the middle.

Of course there’s no guarantee he plays. That will be determined by the circumstances, and how real you think Matt Timoko – bench monster – is. Timoko could be smokescreened into the starting lineup on game day, allowing the Raiders to use Sasagi off the bench in a range of roles that would render Roddy less necessary.

But there’s every chance that Sticky isn’t trying to trick anyone with this line up. Before last week we didn’t think Timoko had lost his starting position to Simi Sasagi. But his performance on Saturday, replete with try assist and try saving tackles, combined with the noise in the offseason about the centre position being open season, means we now have to consider the possibility real. That would make Timoko’s job more likely as an emergency outside back. This is further evidenced by the removal of Jed Stuart from the bench.

It’s an intriguing scenario and one that won’t be clarified until game day. But it does speak to a flexibility and depth that still exists in the first-grade squad despite the absence of Papalii and Nicholson. Canberra have found apt replacements, both with NRL experience. The one with more is a proven performer. The one with less experience is perfect for the situation and style of game today. It’s a good place to be.

How it plays out will be fun to watch. The Raiders will be going against arguably the surprise packet from round one; a finals team that was underestimated, but embarrassed the offseason darlings, even without their star halfback, Luke Metcalfe. They did so by playing the game through the middle, as the Raiders, and anyone with a brain, wants to do. In a game that is sure to bring a hostile environment both on and off the pitch, how Canberra deploys its new bench could be critical.

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