BY DAN

As you’d be aware by now, Matty Nicholson reinjured his shoulder on the weekend. This followed a subluxation in the trial. The risk of further damage is significant, and now all reports are that Nicholson’s likely next step is surgery.

There are no statements from the club yet, so let’s take everything with a grain of salt (I suspect this is driven by the fact that Nicholson is playing Cup meaning national media aren’t interested, and the Canberra Times are probably all at the Black Opal). But according to NRL Physio the reinjury risk makes the surgery ‘a fait accompli‘. There are rumours Nicholson has confirmed to people around him that surgery will happen this week (what is this, New Idea?). Unfortunately that means at least three, and up to five, months watching footy.

Update: The Canberra Times have since reported that he is due for scans tomorrow and see a specialist this week, and won’t be making the trip to New Zealand. None of this makes me think he’s avoiding surgery.

This outcome would be devastating for Nicholson. He’s already had to build himself back up from a major injury last year, watched his first grade spot be taken by a line of backrower talent unprecedented in the Raiders’ history. He’ll be watching them grow over the next five months, desperate to get back to fitness.

I honestly have nothing but empathy for him. He’s made the big move across the world, tested his talent against the best, learned he could match it only to have his body desert him at a crucial moment. It seems unfair.

He’s contracted for this and next season, and will be keen to get back to footy this year if only to prove his body’s capacity to handle the rigors of football before he hits ‘free agency’ on 1 November. The club should recommend caution on his behalf for this. Last season he did the same only to be well below his best to end the season. It won’t help his personal situation to push it too hard too early again.

For the Milk its a complicated situation. Noah Martin was brilliant on the weekend but young players always have their lumps. Zac Hosking and Simi Sasagi can cover the position if needed comfortably, but moving them weakens other positions. Both were excellent at their respective spots on the weekend. The hope is that Martin can maintain his form all year. It would be better to have the backup of Nicholson.

With the likely absence of Josh Papalii to concussion protocols, it creates a test of depth earlier than the Milk would have liked. After having Trey Mooney and Pasami Saulo patrolling cup all last year, the Raiders are suddenly without a plug-and-play option.

If Stick was going to pick a middle to cover the spot the Vena Patuki-Case would be the most obvious option in terms of pedigree and future-proofing, but it would feel early. From my view he’s still learning to be consistent in Cup. NRL would obviously be another step up. I would be curious to see Joe Roddy be used. His comparative advantage is his motor, and willingness for the fight. He’s agile, and would be suited to defending around the ruck in Vlandoball. Myles Martin is the steadier, more consistent option. Owen Pattie would allow Stick to play three hookers in the same game, his forbidden love. I’m not sure it would make roster sense though.

A more likely option is that the Raiders bring Matty Timoko back into the 19 in some form for round two. That would mean that they could either start Timoko, allowing Sasagi to cover middle and edge from the bench. Or they could put Timoko on the bench, and shift Sasagi to another position with Matty is needed. This would be the safest option, and recognise that Timoko is the most NRL proven person outside the current lineup. But it would leave the squad feeling a little light in the face of a battle with the Warriors pack this week.

We’ll know Tuesday, but for now we’ll be focused on waiting to hear from the club about Nicholson’s surgery (or not), and what their prognosis of the length of absence will be. We wish Matty nothing but the best – he deserves a clean run. At the very least it’s early in a long-season. Who knows how important his return could be to a late charging Raiders team.

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