BY DAN

Dust off the boots, wash your favourite beanie, get out your footy-watching-pants and find that remote you hurled into the fifth dimension last year. Rugby league is back baby, and this is the time of year to feel hopeful. For once, that doesn’t feel delusional.

The Canberra Raiders enter this season oddly settled. So much of the roster has been in pen for a while that there were only a few additions to the roster (*nods at Sione Finau and Coby Black like he’s cool enough to do so*), and there’s been clear ranking at each position in the depth chart. Broadly speaking who the Raiders are has been clear since the season officially started. It’s just a matter of making it work.

That will be a challenge. Even with the roster stability there’s plenty of questions. This off-season we’ve covered a lot of them. Can Ethan Sanders manage the team like Fog did, with better defence and running and hopefully 80 per cent of the kicking game? It’s hard to tell what the Raiders think. They went and scored Coby Black and it felt like Stick creating a long-term selection headache. But then they spent all off-season talking up Sanders and how well he was going. Are they speaking him into existence? I hope it works.

His introduction will play a role in solving the other problem the Milk have had. Ethan Strange’s weaponry will be deployed on the right side of the field, and having a more stable (and brutal) presence on his inside will make Matt Timoko’s job much easier. He showed in the Pacific Championships that given more stability around him, his defence ceases to be an issue. Hopefully he can do it for the Milk too.

This does risk asking a lot of Ethan Strange. He’s only 21, and we’re already putting both unrealistically high expectations on him, but also the weight of a thousand problems and dreams. Atlas found life easier. There will be a time this year when people ask if he’s handling the expectation. That may have an impact over this season. It’s all part of the learning process, both for him, and for fans like us who’ve been so long between prodigies.

Some of the load can be borne through other talented, or experienced, places across the park. Joe Tapine is a king; a man I would follow through brick walls, into Mordor, hell, even Red Rooster. The man is still doing it after all these years, and provides the kind of certainty that can alleviate the difficulty of chore that the young halves will face.

He is the face of the pack, but there will be more support around him. Hudson Young is now ensconced in his prime, and performing like it. Corey Horsburgh had a career year in 2025; and still has improvement in his game. Coach Stuart said before 2025 that Matty Nicholson would benefit from another off-season. He’s got it now. Ata Mariota is so close to taking a leap he can almost deadlift it, and with Simi and Zac he’ll be part of an astounding and varied rotation. Josh Papalii may not have another big-minute year in him, but with the mix of players around him, he doesn’t have to. Impact Papa; the final formation.

This pack in itself should alleviate any concerns you have about a boom-crash cycle (or opera – whoa, oh, onionskin). But Canberra itself has improvement in many spots. Kaeo Weekes will be less dramatic – teams will utterly refuse to let him have space in open play. But even with defences shading in his direction now, a year of experience and pre-season with a clear role should provide him with more skills and tricks to insert himself into the game. Owen Pattie is young, but with all the ability in the world. He’ll need reps, and every minute he’s on the field will make the kicking pressure on Ethan Sanders much reduced. Sav Tamale was brilliant last year, and if he can stay healthy people will realise what a gift they’ve been given.

The roster is built sustainably. There are options at every position. Specialists and utilities to fill out the six-man bench with a flavour for every occasion. Simi Sasagi won’t have to worry if he’ll get named; he and Daine Laurie might be the 18th and 19th man each week. Four specialists, two generalists, zero problems. Canberra are set up for success.

But.

(There’s always one).

Being as good as last year is not the aim. Last year was fun, but their opponents have been watching film, improving their own rosters, escaping misfortune. Canberra are marked, and the test of Coach Stuart will be getting them up to crest yet again. He’s tended to build teams in peaks and troughs, designed to top-out over a two or three year period before being rebuilt again. This would make year two of the lift; hopefully Stuart can sustain it.

This will be harder because Stick is not only trying to beat the league, but also the league office. Peter V’Landys is like toddler with their favourite toy. They want to play with it so much they end up breaking it. And he’s nigh-on close doing that to the hearts and knees of 510 professional players. Changing the rules the week before the season is amateur hour, but would you expect anything less of a man more interested in a headline than the actual game? These shenanigans create a further variability that the Raiders have to adjust to. Stuart’s job is already hard enough. This just makes it harder. For what it’s worth, I’m hopeful it will work out.

There’s only one way we’ll find out. Lock in, 2026 is here. I do not think it will be redemption, a cleansing of all the hurt and pain and the final march up that stairway to heaven. But if last year was the first step on the thousand step journey, this will be a continuation. Good things are coming to Canberra. They are still climbing, still learning, still sweating. But this time, the path feels right.

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