BY DAN

The Raiders have released promising outside back Manaia Waitere. Ricky Stuart has made it clear he wants Coby Black in Canberra, and the young half wants the same, but the final call isn’t his. The dance continues, but when the music stops, Black looks destined to be a Raider before Christmas.

This is not a difficult connection to make. Canberra’s top 30 is packed tighter than a Christmas stocking. If they wanted to bring Coby to town a prerequisite was finding a roster spot. Waitere is the sacrifice necessary to make that happen, released to join the Melbourne Storm.

Stuart has been clear about wanting Black, though careful not to commit to his arrival this season.

There’s a lot of talk and some movement. Coby’s keen to join in 2026, but it’s not my decision. If he does, we get the chance to coach him a year early.

If you close your eyes you could be transported back to December 2023 when Canberra were doing the same tango with Penrith over Zac Hosking. Bat your eyes, whisper sweet nothings, deny, deny, deny.

The collateral is Waitere walking. He’s a talented ball runner who should fit neatly into the Storm system. Watching him in Cup over the last two years, it’s clear that with investment he can develop into an NRL-level player. Strong and agile, he’s a skillful outside back, but he’s not perfect and he’s no certainty to make the leap. Even with the issues on the Raiders’ right edge last season, his defence wasn’t strong enough to push him into first grade. He’ll be 24 before next season, which doesn’t mean he’s a complete project, but does mean there’s a degree of “what is, is what will be”.

Losing a player of Waitere’s ability isn’t ideal, but that’s the reality of clearing roster space: it usually costs someone you’d prefer to keep. Without another club to take them, a release doesn’t free a spot. To make room, the departing player must be wanted elsewhere, and in this case, Waitere became that player. The club clearly felt there was enough coverage at centre to let him go. In a sense it’s a vote of confidence in Matt Timoko, Finau, and perhaps Kain Anderson (on the full-season training roster).

The club are effectively saying “we’ve got enough at centre.” Or at least that they are less concerned about centre depth and far more focused on securing their long-term halfback. That’s the gamble. Black could fill the most important position on the field for years. Faced with choosing between a depth centre and a potential franchise half, the decision becomes straightforward

Getting Black into town is worth pursuing. It’s unclear whether Black would be the round-one starter next season, but having him in early to learn the system is valuable. This has ramifications for both him and Ethan Sanders, and the uncertainty it creates will need careful management. But Canberra aiming high, and there’s no point being scared of the leap.

At least, that’s how it looks from the outside. Every part of this points to Black arriving early. Stuart’s coy posturing, Black’s semi-public nudges, and Waitere’s release all sit within the pattern. The waltz might shuffle a little longer, but the music is fading.

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