BY DAN

Welcome to the draw for the 2026 season and the new challenge.

The journey begins anew and the pathway is now (finally) outlined after a week of teasing. This season will be an emotional challenge for the Milk, trying to recapture the vibe of 2025 after getting so close won’t be easy. And the draw is appropriate for the challenge.

This is a fascinating draw, full of pathways and pitfalls that will need to navigated. There’s less travel, more TV, weirdly placed byes, and even a game in Melbourne so I only have to get the tram to the game. Good for me.

For the Milk what was already going to be a tough climb looks tougher. Not that it should matter, but if the Raiders were hoping the algorithm would make their days easy they were mistaken. It reflects their success last year. In previous seasons they have tended to only get heavyweights once a season. Call it the upside of being an afterthought in broadcasting circles. But last year’s winning record means the algo is ready for them, and they get doubles against Panthers, Souths, and the Storm. 

But hey, if you want to be the best you gotta beat the best.

THE START

We’ve had our thoughts on the drip feed that brings us the draw, but you can’t but be a little bit excited about the season starting against Jamal Fogarty. We’ll get to see how Fogarty handles the expectation, how Ethan Sanders handles the cauldron, and how Kaeo Weekes handles Jamal’s floaters (disgusteng!).

Backing that up with another week away in New Zealand before getting a home games against the Dogs and the Sharks isn’t exactly half stepping into the season. The toughest pre-season ever will be needed to be ready for this start.

TRAVEL

The Raiders play five games in Sydney, two in Queensland and one each in the extreme time zones of Perth (v Bunnies in round six) and New Zealand (v Wahs in round two). Instead of playing the Cows in the March heat (as they have seemingly every year recently), they’ll instead play the Cows in the very late September heat. Huzzah!

The Raiders only play three home games in the first nine rounds. If Canberra can get to round ten with their heads above water that will be a huge advantage, because….

HOME COOKING

Canberra somehow go from 2 May until the 13 June without leaving Canberra. Four games and a bye at home (Panthers, bye, Phins, Cows, Roosters). It could be quite a massive time, and an opportunity to hopefully capitalise on a solid start.

NO MAGIC? DENIED!

Here are reasons that the Raiders should be a Magic Round: they are the minor premiers; they had a sick game in 2025; they have some of the funnest young talent in the league; they have a disproportionately large fan base in Queensland.

Here are the reasons the Raiders shouldn’t be at Magic Round: the NRL is afraid they’re too magic.

PERTH IS MAGIC

Let’s call this our own personal mini-magic round. This double header will be a fun trip.

Perth, if you have never been, is one of the most gorgeous cities on earth. There is something spiritual about sitting with beer at the OBH watching the sun set over Cottesloe beach and the Indian Ocean. The problem with Perth (earmuffs Western Australians) but it’s really far from anything. Literally anything. The most isolated city on earth. It’s a long, tiring trip.

Flying there isn’t too bad. All that happens is that you wake up earlier and feel a little bit righteous as you head out for early morning exercise (only to discover the entirety of Perth is already outside doing things?). The problem is on the way back, when 10pm becomes midnight (or 1am depending on the time of year) and suddenly getting out of bed feels like escaping an avalanche. If the Raiders can manage it, fly in the day before, fly home the night of, would be the ideal way forward. Canberra won’t lose this game because of travel. But what comes after will be interesting.

But for us? Me, you? We should definitely go to this game. Watch the sun set. Go hang out with my cousins. Spend a couple of days on Cottesloe enjoying life. 

BYE BYE BYE

Interesting spacing of the byes yet again this year. This time it’s round 11, 18 and 26.

If Canberra are serious about making a run again, this could work well, with a late bye giving them a chance to get healthy for the finals. Of course going 18 rounds with only one bye will be tough – most clubs will have had two by that time.

But they can make this work. It will test the depth though, and in particular will be tough on Ethan Sanders if he doesn’t hit the ground running. There will be nowhere to take a breath early.

SHORT TURNAROUNDS

There are just twelve across the competition this year, which I guess kudos to the ‘AI’ for working out that playing two games of professional sport in five days is bad. Apparently the humans couldn’t work that out before. Canberra have only one, and it’s Sunday (at home v Cows) to Friday (at home v Roosters). Home cooking into a big game on the Friday? That’s the best way to do a short turnaround.

TV GAMES

Nine free-to-air games by my count, which will make Don Furner and the Fork Yeah crew very happy.

6PM GAMES

The Raiders play the Storm. Broncos and Warriors 6pm on Fridays, which is fucking insane. The Warriors one is understandable – it’s prime time into New Zealand. But whatever genius allowed those games to be in the east coast dead time is an idiot (Hi Pete, hope you’re well).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

I do this every year. You’re going to see a lot of stuff in the next couple of days about strength of schedule. You can see how I feel about these assessments here: but the TLDR version is that they genuinely aren’t worth the paper they’re written on. There’s so much change between seasons that projecting performance of teams between years is silly. Even within it. Last year the Broncos and the Panthers were favourites, then easy-beats, then comp heavyweights again? Souths should be good but weren’t last year. Can the Dogs and the Raiders outperform the commentariats expectations they’ll crash and burn?

The Raiders draw is harder this year than last because last year’s was supremely ‘easy’, and they won. It’s more difficult because they’ve gone into the system as a ‘good’ side, so get more teams the algorithm thinks are good. For now. Next year it might be easy, until it isn’t, and then until it is. You’re better of focusing on how Canberra can improve than who else is *good*.

Easy draws become hard when you’re not good at footy. Hard draws become easier when you are. Outside of situational issues like short turnarounds and noting where tough periods might be, the assignment of a draw of easy or hard before the season is pointless. It’s one of those things that’s only really clear in hindsight. Or as we said back in the day:

I have no doubt that ease of draw can play a role in where the Raiders finish. But trying to ascertain the measure of that ease ex-ante is nothing but a way to pass the time until the season starts. 

Control the controllables. Good or bad. Hard or easy. Be better than your circumstances.

Next year we’ll see if they are.

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