BY DAN

Finally some good news.

The Canberra Raiders odd off-season has finally taken a step towards the good, with news emerging that a deal is basically done to extend Ata Mariota, per the Canberra Times.

For those familiar with the process this year, a report from the Times that a deal is ‘nearly done’ is effectively proof that it is. This has been the pattern with a host of deals this year. The Times reports it’s near done, and then around 10 or 11 days later, just about the time it takes for the NRL to register a contract, the deal is announced as done. So yes, we’re counting chickens while the egg’s still warm, but this one looks ready to hatch.

This is an unqualified win for the Milk, and new list manager Chris Hutchison. Alongside the Sisyphean task of finding a backup halfback, ensuring Ata Mariota’s future was with the club was the number one priority this off-season. This deal will keep him at the club until the end of the 2028 season, meaning that he’s in Canberra not only for the foreseeable future, but beyond the commencement of both the Bears and the Chiefs in the competition in ’27 and ’28. He’ll be able to fulfil his destiny as the ‘next big-name Raiders middle’ as Papalii shuffles off into retirement and Tapine enters the end-game of his career.

And boy does Mariota have a future ahead of him. At just 23 Mariota is nowhere near his prime, and already a dangerous weapon. Despite playing a role that only allowed him 31.6 minutes (on average off the bench) he still averaged 80 metres per game, forming an electric thunder and lightning combination with first Zac Hosking, and later Simi Sasagi as part of the middle rotation. He’s a mobile and dynamic attacker, an effective defender who doesn’t need help to do his job. He can ever cover edge when you need, and there’s no middle I’m less worried about filling in at the A defender on the blind side than Ata.

His quick feet in the line are already a weapon, and the good news is that he’s capable of much more than being a short-minute specialist. When given the opportunity he would almost always produce in longer stints. He ran for over 100 metres in six games, despite playing more than forty minutes only three times. In round 20 against Parramatta he had his most minutes (49) and turned it into a season high 171 metres. In the Miracle at Mudgee, he again topped 40 minutes and added 133 metres. More time out there just means more production.

This is good news because his role will only increase over time. The trajectory is upwards, with his countables all increasing in 2025. That will need to continue, as the likelihood is his transition into a bigger job mirrors Josh Papalii’s move into an impact role. That’s ok – it’s good Canberra are prepared for it, but it means there will be pressure on Mariota to continue to perform. I don’t see that as a worry. In fact it’s exciting. By the time this deal ends Mariota will be fully-ensconced in his prime, and we’ll get to see just where that ceiling is.

You couldn’t ask for a better script. We’ve watched Mariota evolve from ‘Covid ball boy’ to ‘deadlift extraordinaire,’ from potential to exciting. It’s been glorious to watch something that seemed so certain tick every box, cross every bridge. He’s been years in the making, a testament to both his talent, perseverance, and the development ability that exists with the Milk’s system. It’s a vote of confidence, and not an isolated incident. Canberra are proving really effective at turning clay into monsters (nice ones), and in doing so are future-proofing some of their biggest strengths.

We’re also really happy for Ata. As we said we’ve all been watching him grow up, and what is emerging is a wonderful human, parent, and footballer. That we get to keep him around, to be the next leader of the pack, continuing a proud tradition of brilliant middles that goes back through the Raiders’ history, warms the heart. Canberra built the pathway, but Ata has walked it, and we couldn’t be happier.

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