BY DAN

Matt Timoko is hitting the open market, in a sense, as reported by the Daily Telegraph. Timoko has a deal through 2028, but mutual options in 2027 and 2028 mean he can hit the open market now to test his value.

That’s precisely what this is – a controlled trial of value. Timoko’s manager is likely of the view he’s underpaid, or at least the suspicion. A visit to the open market will be the test of that, replete in the knowledge that if he’s wrong he can just come back to the deal he’s currently on. Another interpretation would be that Canberra have told him to hit the market, but given the paucity of roster depth at the position, Timoko’s importance in this and previous years, and the investment made into him over the years, it would be an oddly timed decision to cut bait.

It could also just be paperwork, man. The options are mutual, and Timoko is overseas. Perhaps he’ll pick up his option with his first coffee on day one back. Rugby league is weird like that sometimes.

Update: I understand, courtesy of GE the gawd over at the Greenhouse, that no option actually has to be taken until well into next season. Market testing? More like market sniffing

I’m not convinced this is anything to worry about. Generally, these kinds of shenanigans are about securing an upgrade at a player’s current club, not finding a new one. Luke Metcalfe just went through the same process. Heck, a million Raider Raises have been built from the same materials. The most likely outcome is a small adjustment to Timoko’s deal – a marginal increase that doesn’t meaningfully change Canberra’s cap position. The only way it turns dramatic is if the open market suddenly gets fast and loose with cash. Given the musical chairs of player change are a faint tune now, it’s unlikely to be the case.

Given the nature of the Milk’s 2025 crash-out, that seems unlikely. Timoko was cast as the face of Canberra’s defensive woes. We’ve spoken repeatedly about how that’s an oversimplification – one that ignores the pressure Jamal Fogarty’s defensive decisions and lack of agility placed on Timoko. Together they were oil and water, a combination Canberra couldn’t overcome or outrun (as shown by Timoko’s career-high tackle count in 2025). It wasn’t his fault alone, and it’s a problem that should ease next year with more stable partners around him.

But whether or not it’s true, it’s definitely the proffered explanation of rugby league discourse. That means that the money won’t exactly flow rivers of gold on the open market, and he’ll likely return to pre-season when he’s back from internationals with a hug and a smile.

That’s unquestionably a good thing for the Raiders. They should want to keep Timoko. He is a weapon on the right, a huge part of why the Milk’s right side attack was its most successful avenue in 2025. While that edge conceded more tries than the left or middle, it also produced more. Timoko had the sixth-most tackle breaks of any centre in the competition and the most line breaks of his career – a constant threat who opened space for everyone around him. Many of the gaps Kaeo Weekes ran through existed only because defences had to stay honest to Timoko’s power.

He was a beast in yardage, a necessity after the injuries to Savelio Tamale and then Xavier Savage. So often he was taking the first carry of a set, running into a defensive line ready to put a hurt on. Rarely did he come off second best. Even with that structural disadvantage, he finished with the fifth-most metres of any centre in the competition, and one of the lowest ratios of short runs (7m or less). If he carried, it was usually for eight-plus metres, no matter how many defenders he met.

Canberra can ill afford to lose Timoko. While there are promising options coming through – Sione Finau, Manaia Waitere and others – none offer the proven quality Timoko brings. Centre is a notoriously difficult position, often blamed for the defensive mistakes of others, and when you have a reliable one, you don’t let him go on a whim. Timoko may not have had his happiest season in 2025, but with some defensive support, he’ll again be one of the Milk’s most potent weapons.

That’s likely the upshot of this news. TImoko will in all likelihood be back in green for 2026 and beyond, and this will just be another weird blip in what is quickly becoming one of the oddest off-seasons in recent memory.

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