BY DAN

For the first time in the Canberra Raiders off-season dalliance with Jonah Pezet, with a report from Zerotackle.com indicating they are the frontrunners for his services.

Not so fast. This indication of favourite status is conditional, and the reporting is mixed on how far away it is. While a deal is apparently close, the signing will be determined by whether Parramatta is interested in seeking a replacement for Dylan Brown. That in turn is determined by whether Zac Lomax signs for the new Saudi run project in Rugby 360 (if you don’t know what it is here’s my short summary: it will ruin a lot of sport, be of no interest to watch, and generally be awful for humanity. So like the IPL but for Rugby).

It seems almost certain that Rugby 360 will start signing players. Lomax, along with Jye Gray and Ryan Papenhuyzen, seem to be names that continually pop up in the rumours. I’ve no ability to discern whether that will occur, but without wanting to cast aspersions on Lomax’s character, I would say I expect him to strongly consider the Saudi offer.

Where that leaves the Raiders is hard to tell. The Raiders have been ‘front-runners’ a few times lately, and it’s gone nowhere but bigger deals at Sydney clubs. The ‘if Parra can get more money’ screams Raider Raise. Given that the dance between Rugby 360 and the rest of the rugby and rugby league world will continue for some time, it’s hard to tell when the hammer will drop. So the quicker Pezet wants a deal done, the more likely the Milk might get him. Patience is one thing, but waiting to find out how existential threats are going to impact your career is exactly why Pezet wants out of Melbourne.

But that aside, given the range of clubs involved, the demand for Pezet’s skills in particular and in general, it still feels like a long shot for the Milk. If we were a 5 per cent chance before this reporting, this only raises it to 35 per cent for me. It’s still more likely than not he goes elsewhere.

As we’ve noted here and here, the Raiders’ continual involvement can only be taken as a belief that Pezet has the same upside, and more immediate ability, than long-term project Ethan Sanders. I can’t help but worry about the impact this will have on Sanders if it falls through, but perhaps he’s stronger than me. Either way, it’s plausible it’s not that the team is down on Sanders, just higher on Pezet. The end scenario may be the Raiders getting the higher-priced Pezet, and Sanders returning to the Eels on a deal cheaper than the Milk’s new recruit. All parties end happy.

What this means for Canberra’s youth project is hard to tell. Pezet is still only 22, so it’s still a young half. But the relationship between Strange, Sanders, and Stewart was a big part of how the Raiders started this process. I’m not inside Ethan Strange’s mind, but I’d be curious as to how he feels about his version of the ‘08 Olympics Pact‘ being blown up before it’s given a chance. I hope it’s bittersweet; sad it never happened, but pleased everyone has ended up with a first grade pathway somewhere.

The Milk have not given up on the youth project in its entirety. As we noted here, they’ve upgraded a heap of young players into the top 20. Their starting 17 would still be one of the youngest in the league, however Sanders and Pezet dominoes fall. The trajectory of the squad would still be into the future and in tension with the ‘right now’ competitiveness of 2025.

Given the conditions we don’t expect this to resolve quickly. Braith Anasta, Pezet’s manager, is going to use his platform in every manner he knows (including dropping to Zero Tackle) to make sure Pezet gets every dollar, and Braith all the commission, they can get. Canberra may be a leader now, but the Lomax dance will continue, and multiple variables will play out before we know how this lands. And even if Canberra wins, the victory may be Pyrrhic.

But then again, maybe the Raiders will get the potentially elite half every team in the competition has been chasing for the best part of two years. Hang on, this could be quite a ride.

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