BY DAN

With a pin put in the 2025 season, the Canberra Raiders have work to do before Christmas to fill out their roster. With clear needs and limited space available, they’ll need to move smartly in order to position themselves for another run to paradise.

To understand what is possible, it’s important to take stock of where we are. Canberra currently have 29 positions filled in their top 30. That is likely to reduce to 28 this offseason when Chevy Stewart is inevitably granted a release to join the St George Illawarra Dragons. They’ve settled much of their roster throughout this year, locking down their current model for all intents and purposes through the 2028 season.

There is still change in this roster, though. Canberra has a host of young players entering the top 30 for the first time this season. Noah Martin, Jake Clydsdale, Manaia Waitere, and Joey “two tries” Roddy, all move from development deals to top 30 deals for the year. They join Jayden Brailey and Sione Finau as additions to the team from last season.

Key losses this offseason are obviously Jamal Fogarty and Trey Mooney, with solutions for both already clear. Ethan Sanders has been the heir-apparent for two years now (though the club’s dalliance with Jonah Pezet certainly undermines that). I think he’s ready, and am keen to see him run out in round one next year.

Mooney’s departure came from Josh Papalii sticking around, and new recruitment manager Chris Hutchison’s first action in this space was to replenish the pipeline, signing Manly junior Campbell Munn. I’ve never watched Campbell play but would note he was Manly’s 2025 Jersey Flegg Player of the Year. Xavier Cacciotti, a highly valued prospect at hooker, won the Raiders version of that, which is a useful indication of where both players are at in terms of proximity to first grade.

This is definitely part of Canberra’s preference to pick up elite juniors as they transition into big game footy, and a hint as to how Hutchison and Stuart intend to go forward. If Mooney is front of the line, the Raiders are choosing to replace him by building the length of the queue. This is a continuation of what we’ve seen in recent times. The new status quo continues.

A key focus of this off-season will be landing a deal to retain Ata Mariota. With his deal expiring at the end of 2026, he’s officially on the market. Anyone with eyes can tell you he’s not only coming into his own, but ready to be an elite forward in the near future. The test for the Raiders is finding a way to keep him out of other teams’ clutches (particularly the Bears – he routinely turns up Perth’s presumptive squads) without blowing the bank.

This is more challenging than you may think. Canberra don’t have a lot of high profile players, but over 2024 and 2025 they’ve paid some early upgrades to keep certain players at the club. Payments to Strange, Weekes, Pattie, Martin and others will start to bite at some point. Finding a way to fit Mariota under the cap won’t be as easy as taking the difference in Mooney’s deal and Dowell’s and passing it on to Ata.

A second retention question will be how to handle Jed Stuart. Stuart wasn’t in the top 30 for 2025, but was a huge contributor to the side’s success. While they have added Sione Finau to the squad, Daine Laurie is reportedly joining, and Waitere will be pushing for a first grade shot, Stuart made a fair claim for a more permanent position over the last half of the 2025 season. He wouldn’t be expensive, and how often can you get first grade experience and relative competence on a cheap deal to be depth?

But Canberra have spent that roster spot on Daine Laurie. That leaves them with one roster spot and the Raiders have been clear what their intent is and where they are going to spend it. Clifford, Ilias, Sandon Smith, Jonah Pezet. They are looking for halfback certainty. They’ve already made a big bet on Ethan Sanders, but they need a backup plan if that doesn’t work out. The heuristic is that development isn’t linear, and even if Sanders is ready, they’ll inevitably be bumps as he learns to yell at people like Josh Papalii, Joe Tapine or Hudson Young. Stuart’s 50 game rule is probably worth remembering here.

Just who that is remains unclear, with little public information pointing to alternate pathways. Other depth options like Sean O’Sullivan or Toby Sexton have found other homes. Clifford and Smith are both locked up, Jonah Pezet and Lachlan Ilias are both contracted at their current clubs for 2026. The pile is dwindling as teams go elsewhere looking for opportunity.

The Raiders may well be waiting to see what happens with Ilias and Pezet. Ilias is on the outer at St George with the arrival of Daniel Atkinson pushing him to fourth in their halves depth chart. Pezet has a long-term deal with Melbourne, and is in demand by everyone without an established option at seven. Canberra could be a chance, but as we said here it doesn’t feel likely.

It means a very interesting period prior to the new season start on 1 November. Chris Hutchison’s workload isn’t broad, but it’s risk-heavy, with fewer options by the week.

All of this leaves the Raiders walking a fine line between patience and urgency. They’ve secured the spine of their future, but the final pieces – and the retention of talents like Mariota – will decide whether 2025 is remembered as a stepping stone or the launchpad to a genuine premiership tilt in 2026.

Do us a solid and like our page on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, or share this on social media because I’m on holidays and writing through the day beers and food naps. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.