BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders have suffered an almighty blow on the brink of their semi final with the Cronulla Sharks, with Ethan Strange being ruled out of the match.

At this stage the reporting is light, with the confirmation simply coming from the club acknowledging that Simi Sasagi comes into the starting line up with Matty Nicholson coming on to the bench. I’d note that Ethan Sanders has also joined the 19, though I’m not certain on the ability for him to come into the 17 at this stage. We’ll know more later in the day.

Assuming Sanders doesn’t come in, it seems that there are two options. One is for Simi Sasagi to play at six, with no other changes. This allows Hosking to still move into the middle as needed (by way of Matty Nicholson replacing him on the right edge). The other is to shift Simi to the centres, move Kris to fullback and Weekes to six.

To me the vast preference here is to keep as many structures intact as you can. Simi has played so many roles for the Milk that him defending in between Young and Kris seems pretty manageable. He wouldn’t offer the ball play and dynamic running Strange does on the left, but he can hit a hole. Young is trusted to be first receiver so often on that side that it almost seems functional. The rest of the side continues to function as is, and the Raiders try to grind a victory by being bigger and badder across the park. You can see it working.

The other pathway is more fraught to me. Many will see bringing Weekes to the frontline as an easier solution but it results in too many changes, and won’t actually get Weekes the ball more. He has been so central to the right side attack that shifting him to the left probably doesn’t increase his touches, but does make him get the ball often in less space. It might actually reduce his effectiveness. And while he’ll need to play a bigger role in long-kicking, he can do that from fullback. (Update: also maybe more minutes for Owen Pattie?)

Of course Sanders may be elevated, and this all becomes moot. At that point the real risk for Canberra is suddenly they have two targets for the opposition to attack. Perhaps that lightens the defensive load on Fogarty, which took such a toll on the halfback during the Broncos game; the old magic trick of distraction. I’m honestly not certain of the rules around late-insertions from outside the 19. I suspect that would require NRL approval, and no other option to fill it. The Raiders have options, so I suspect Sanders doesn’t get the chance.

However you want to paint it, it’s a massive blow. If Canberra felt fate conspired against them unfairly last Sunday, then that feeling is back and hurting. In addition to the structural change it becomes another test of their ability to get off the mat. I’m sure the weight of the world feels heavy right now.

I think Canberra can still win. They’ll miss Strange, that’s for sure. His defence, his ball-running, his fearlessness. But when everything is working they can often succeed without his involvement. It’ll be harder without him than with him but I’m not giving up.

If they find a way to cobble together a win, Strange should be back next week. If not, it could be the cruellest end to a brilliant season.

Good luck Canberra. You’re going to need it.

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