BY DAN

NewsCorp is reporting that Josh Papalii is in doubt for this weekend’s Qualifying Final after a training accident on Friday. It’s not a disaster, but it’s hardly the build-up you’d want for the biggest game since 2019. (Update: now, oddly, confirmed by the club).

This could have a profound impact on the Raiders, both on performance and culture. Papa has been one of the Milk’s most important players this year; his partnership with Joe Tapine has given Canberra two elite bookends most teams can only compete with for so long. The Raiders wear opponents down and roll over them in the final twenty minutes, largely because rivals can handle Taps and Papa once, but not twice.

This potential loss looms even larger against the Broncos. The middle battle is mouth-watering. Unlike most teams, Brisbane are built to go with the Milk for the full 80. It helps when you’ve basically got Payne Haas dominating for most of the game, with Patty Carrigan in the wings.

It’s not just a performance issue either, it’s cultural. Papalii’s importance to the club has been a constant talking point. Beyond the vibes, his experience and calm head are invaluable in a game this big. Canberra don’t have an abundance of that. Having the rare diamonds watching from the bench is hardly ideal.

If confirmed, the likeliest outcome is that the door opens for either Trey Mooney or Matty Nicholson to return to the 17. Mooney is the most like-for-like replacement, but his defence still worries me, and his failure to cover inside-out on a Redcliffe try yesterday didn’t help. Nicholson has also looked physically underwhelming, but two full games have at least pushed him towards match fitness. Maybe 30 minutes off the bench is the best way to re-integrate him.

wouldn’t hate Noah Martin either, given he’d help maintain the flexibility to shift back-rowers around and deploy Simi Sasagi as needed. He’s been in great form in NSW Cup and solid in his first-grade chances. But maybe I’m overthinking it. Mooney and Nicholson have been proved themselves ready for the level before. Any choice here will be fine. Let’s just hope they don’t need to make it.

There’s also the chance this is just overblown finals hype, a smokescreen of the highest order. I wouldn’t put it past Stick, but I’m not stable enough to cling to that idea. More likely, this is a genuine report, and Papa will be racing the clock to play. If that’s the case, it may make more sense to wait until he’s fully healthy. This is a huge game, but it’s not elimination. Giving him every chance to recover properly would be the smarter play.

We’ll wait to see what the club says in the coming days and watch closely when teams are named tomorrow. Maybe we can’t win with Papa this week.

So we’ll just have to win for him.

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