BY DAN

The Baby Raiders were murdered in front of our eyes, 62-24, by a team that played bigger, badder and faster. Canberra were carved up on the edges and outmuscled in the middle, forced to watch the opposition finish every set in attacking position with minimal risk. It doesn’t matter because it wasn’t the big names. It is however a useful reminder of how precarious success can be, and the importance of taking chances when they’re offered.

Real sickos were hoping for a repeat of the last Baby Raiders outing (a 38-28 victory in 2020 over the Sharks). Instead they got a reminder of how brutal the NRL is. You can’t just cobble together an admittedly talented team and hope to be competitive. Connections, cohesion, and concentration are all critical components to creating a challenger. One would have hoped that the presence of a mostly first grade quality pack would have been enough to raise the water level. Instead it was drought.

That was concerning. The ‘Phins are not a good pack, but through testing the lateral mobility of the Raiders’ middle they were able to tire them out quickly. Routinely the Phins would hit an edge to draw in the backrower, and then directly attack the replacement defender. Twice early, Corey Horsburgh was caught defending on the left edge during shift plays that led to line breaks.

In making the middle shift across the field so consistently it exacerbated an already unimpressive line speed. This compounded the effect, giving the ‘Phins a mile of space to send their sideways shenanigans. There was a constant shortage of numbers, particularly on the right. You can blame whoever you want, but it wasn’t the fault of one.

Some of it was embarrassing. On the first try the Phins scored in the second half they ran a crash play, then ran another. On the second play the defence was somehow stretched, a split field with five defenders on the open side of the ruck. Another try came when the Dolphins dropped a pass in the shift, the Hammer picked it up and came back inside into what should have been the teeth of the defence. The cover was instead standing three feet to the lazy side of the gap. Both of these tries started with silly errors from Canberra players. We’ve said all year that good teams defend errors. The first string can. This version couldn’t.

On the flip the middle so often couldn’t win contact when they had the ball. I haven’t seen so many sets end with Canberra kicking under pressure in their own 30. Routinely sets made 20 odd metres, with Owen Pattie at times begging for a ball runner. For a team whose strength in the middle was meant to raise the floor on their performance, they got the exact opposite. Corey Horsburgh, Trey Mooney and Savelio Tamale were the only Raiders that cracked 100 metres in this game. That’s not a platform to win.

What was worse was the offensive discipline. Because they lacked good ball, Canberra tried to turn every scrap of field position into gold, and it led to a string of poor decisions. Ethan Sanders threw a hero ball that was intercepted for a try (eventually). Chevy Stewart tried to offload off the ground in good position, was penalised, and the Dolphins scored off the next set. Mainaia Waitere made a tackle break, ran under Stewart, and was penalised. A try to the ‘Phins followed. Morgan Smithies pushed Ata through a hole, who popped to Sanders who would have been in space with runners on both sides. Guess what happened after? Shift, shift, try.

*mutters* Fuck me.

These were errors of judgement, the kind young players make. With nothing at stake and the game treated like a training run, it’s hard not to wonder if that mindset crept in. It makes one think about Sam Williams’ leadership in 2020, and how important that was it keeping a young side focused. Corey Horsburgh is not a leader in that way. Instead of a courageous victory we got Anakin hanging out with the younglings as Order 66 was executed.

The real question will be about how much of this matters, for now and the future. In the short term both Savelio Tamale and Matty Nicholson looked physically limited. Tamale doesn’t have the power or agility that characterised his footy early this year. In a perfect world he’d have another week in Cup before he’s found on the first grade field. But there’s no time for that. I would be surprised if Matty Nicholson supplanted Simi Sasagi or Morgan Smithies next week, particularly with the Cup team going another week deep in the finals.

As to next year and beyond, most will be worried about Owen Pattie and Ethan Sanders not dominating the game. Given the advantage the pack gave up, and the inability of the edges to solve those problems, both were on a hiding to nothing. Sanders made some errors, but he also showed you the things he can do that will make him a great halfback, including that gorgeous connection he has with the backrowers that resulted in a try for Noah Martin. He dug into the line willingly, and given more than eight red zone tackles to play with, he could have had more impact. Joe Roddy also showed he’s on a fast track to first grade, with his sharp lines, pace into holes, and willing defence. He looks capable of filling multiple roles if needed..

For now the problem to solve is a week away. You’ll hear the old stat this week: “you can’t concede 50 and win the comp.” Scott Bailey from AAP popularised this as a quirky anomaly – not really indicative of anything. Like most fun stats, it ignores the context of the events or arbitrariness of the number. There’s no measure for resting your first grade against one of the best attacks in the competition. There’s no memory of the sides like the Knights that conceded 49 with their first string in 2001. Other teams have conceded 50 with their best and made the grand final. Like people saying “Canberra don’t have an elite defence”, it will one of the most prominent stats-based crimes you’ll see this week.

Canberra are on to bigger things. But it’s impossible to ignore the bitterness parading around my mouth after this game. The Raiders pride themselves on power and patience, on a dynamism that doesn’t let a setback turn them to water, on a relentlessness built on fitness, electricity, and intelligence. This was the kids, but the secret hope was always that this was something caked into the whole club.

It’s a useful reminder of the precariousness of success, and the opportunity that Canberra have right now. They are ready and able to win the grand final right now. The Baby Raiders showed today that they aren’t.

Do us a solid and like our page on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, or share this on social media. Send us feedback (thesportress@gmail.com – we answer all emails) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.