BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders wanted proof that they are ready to rock the competition and got it. The world wanted proof they were frauds and didn’t. Everyone will focus on what happened in the fifteen seconds after Nathan Cleary’s field goal attempt hit the upright but what mattered was the 83 minutes before it.

It was 20-16 in the end. It may as well be 4-0. The margins of victories in big games are small. All you can do is put yourself in the best positions to do good things. Canberra did that, and in doing so dispelled any myth, any bleating of ‘frauds’ on social media. They are the real deal. They are ready.

You want proof? Here’s your fucking proof. Take the best the greatest team of our lives can swing. Be better than them through the balance of 80 minutes, only having to persevere longer because an 80 per cent kicker missed (twice!). Turn a sliver of an opportunity into Ted Lasso’s sign. The Miracle in Mudgee? To paraphrase Darryl Kerrigan, it’s not the moment, but what you do with it.

For a period they were enveloped, suffocated by a Penrith team that trusts it can out-muscle anyone and drive them into dust. This was the best of them. Tenacious in defence, all line speed and piss and vinegar, with Nathan Cleary working them into repeat sets through a kicking game that terrorizes more than it hinders.

But this time there was a difference. The Panthers thrive on choking teams, depriving them of the oxygen that makes them work. Somehow through a period of dominance Canberra just took a deep breath and didn’t panic, and won their way back. They trusted their game plan, happy to instead work on their opposition’s discipline, test their edge defence, keep hitting face balls to make sure that the edges would be given chances in space. Then when the edges got into space they found enough points – enough proof.

It started in the middle. This was a game played with discipline. Both teams completed over 80 per cent of their sets, willing to make this a battle of who will blink first. Canberra played tough. There were plenty of metres in this game through the middle but none of them easy. Every run on both sides of the ball was met with a contact usually reserved for September. So when Tapine bent the line, Smithies buried under it, or Mariota stepped between defenders, it felt like a reprieve.

The workload was September like too. Taps had 130 metres (50 plus post contact) a try, and 47 tackles. Corey Horsburgh had near 140, 70 plus post contact and 53 tackles of his own. Zac Hosking had 100 plus metres and 51 tackles. Smithies had 100 and 31 tackles in 35 minutes of footy. Mariota *only* made 23 tackles in 40 minutes to go with 130 metres of the hardest running you will see.

Early on this was only just keeping Canberra in the battle. Penrith were on a similar grind, and with the weapon on the end of Cleary’s right leg, they were able to earn additional opportunities to make the Raiders feel pain. An early try from a ping-ponging grubber wasn’t a reward, but a reflection of the position battle they were trying to win. You’ve got to be in position for that to make a difference. But it was also indicative that Canberra’s defence wasn’t going to give in easy.

This was the suffocation that the Panthers can inflict. 63 per cent of the ball. Starving your opposition of the ball and the territory needed to get into the game. Their first try of each half reflected this. Win the hard battle, and take advantage of the position offered. Only neither try was a movement that exposed a weakness in Canberra, but rather the advantage that can come with the ball being in the vicinity of the try line.

There was one moment of concern for the Milk, the now traditional ‘centre running outside Matt Timoko’ try. There is a tendency to blame Timoko for these but this is a system failure. The edges drifted sideways, Savage didn’t cover inside, and the Panthers made me cry. When it comes to winning premierships, it’s done by teams, operating as one, not by centres making one-on-one tackles in space.

It was the only moment Canberra didn’t look capable of handling the horde of barbarians tearing at their wall. Most teams wilt at the relentlessness of the Panthers power. In the past Canberra has only overcome it through insanity. In this game there was instead a trust. Of who they are, and what they do. Of what they’ve achieved this year, and how they play footy. They didn’t try to hail mary their way into the game. Just kept working, safe in the knowledge their defence would give them the time to play patient.

So they kept to the middle through the first twenty of each stanza. They absorbed the punishment, were patient in attack, and kept hitting forwards and edge runners to wear Penrith down. Consistently bringing multiple middles on unders lines to tire out the Panthers defence and reduce their inside-out cover when Canberra did shift.

Then they pounced. In each half they found space and opportunity late in the half, a reflection of the patience that came with working to win the middle before shifting. They call it earning the right, but that implies entitlement. This is problem solving, delayed gratification and trust all in one. Canberra had it in spades, and it paid off.

And not just in the tries that were scored. Kaeo Weekes was in space on the right. Timoko was in half breaks more than once. Ethan Strange was making Nathan Cleary look like Daly Cherry-Evans on the left. Canberra weren’t finding line breaks but the breath before them. Backrowers were hanging on the other side of the line wanting to pass to someone. Outside backs were half a step away from clean air.

The Panthers were cleaning up but the Milk just were too able. One try came with Strange getting enough space to shimmy in and away, draw the centre and give Simi Sasagi enough space to score. Another came through Ethan Strange shifting left to right as the play unfolded behind the ruck, jumping into a space perfectly and being unstoppable. A third try came when Strange got the ball from Jed Stuart…we’ll get to that. Joe Tapine’s crash play came as a reminder that we do other things really well.

Strange was just as good in this game as he was in the Manly game, against better opposition, with more at stake. There’s a tendency to see him just as a brilliant runner. He is that, but the patience to get Simi into space, the switch to the right to score what should have been the game winner, these reflect a burgeoning creativity, ball-playing ability. The running and defence excite, but greatness lies between those gorgeously naff ears.

The amazing thing is that while the Panthers gave their best, there is still music to be found in Canberra’s feet. Jamal Fogarty was excellent, but we can’t shy from the fact he stone-cold blew a game winner, and shanked a tougher field goal chance. He’s such a crucial part of the Raiders implementing their game plan – they need him to be a reason they’re successful too. Xavier Savage appears to be injured too. With Savelio Tamale ready to come back that’s fortunate, just as fortunate as how improved Jed Stuart is every week.

But that’s a worry for another day. This day they’re already calling the Miracle in Mudgee and that’s not the whole story. Sure, it was curious the way the ball seared off its line in the air. Hitting the post on the 45 and going out, not in, was a moment in itself. No one expected what came next. But it wasn’t a miracle.

It was a testament to what makes this side great. Jed Stuart wasn’t there waiting under the posts by accident. Ethan Strange wasn’t able to get out and running by some divine providence. It wasn’t the first time he’d stepped Nathan Cleary. Dylan Edwards wasn’t the first person who suffered at his strong-arm. Kaeo Weekes wasn’t escorted into position to receive the ball by a personalised invite. All these happened because a team of players don’t leave things to chance. What got them to that point was no miracle either.

Some will tell you the result doesn’t matter. That Canberra and Penrith showed they’re both ready for the finals. Some might even say the Raiders couldn’t ice the opportunities they had, and that a late curl on a ball in flight shouldn’t be why you think this team is great. That next time Nathan Cleary, or Dylan Edwards won’t do what they did this time. Maybe they’re right, but they’re arguing about hypotheticals.

I’m here in the real world. The world that saw what it saw. Canberra are great. They are not perfect but they can take the best team of our lives’ best shot and be the better side. They can be bereft of position and possession and defend their way out of a hole. They can be sized up by a defence that think they have its measure and over time find its weakness.

What are the margins of greatness? The width of a goal post? The distance of a step? What is the difference between destiny and diffidence? What is beauty but the presence of humanity, of love, of truth, and hurt all at once, in a way that makes you believe that something matters. That something is important.

Canberra are important. Canberra are great. They can win the competition. They will finish top two, with a home qualifier and a shot at a home prelim. Yeah, it took the Miracle in Mudgee — but really, it just took 83 minutes to prove they were better.

They’ll call it a miracle, but it was proof. An attestation to the league. To the world. To existence, that all the equivocating about them over the last few months is just noise. The meaningless babble of cognitive dissonance. It’s been a while since there was someone other than Penrith who were the best team in the competition. The Canberra Raiders may be just that.

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