BY DAN
If there has been a common theme to the Canberra Raiders remarkable improvements in 2025 it has been to their offence. The results speak for themselves. Gone are yesteryear’s fumbling towards utopia. Instead it’s been replaced with a hectic pace-and-space directness supported by improved shape and structure in short yardage.
In 2024 they averaged under 20 points a game, 15th in the league, scoring the equal fewest tries in the competition. They were last in the league in line breaks (93), 13th in tackle breaks (780), and 8th in post contact metres. This was not a fluke. Their output reflected an inability to create opportunities, to ice chances, and to do anything that would threaten a modern defence with any consistency.
In 2025 the turnaround has been instrumental in their league-leading season. They’ve already scored more points than the entirety of 2024. They are third in the competition in points and tries, only behind the Storm and the electric Dolphins, averaging near 28 a game. They scored more points in 18 games this year than they did in 24 last year. Again it’s a function of the opportunities they are creating. They’re second in the competition in line breaks (101 – more than last year with six games remaining) and first in both tackle breaks (667) and post contact metres.
This change has been dramatic, and unexpected. As a team they’re playing an aggressively unorthodox style, supporting the unique skills of the players they have. Jamal Fogarty, best when he’s given the sole grip of the rudder, is trusted to steer the ship. Ethan Strange, still carving his methods into the game, is given a free hand to play what he sees without the responsibility of worrying of management. Kaeo Weekes is put in places that allow him to make run-pass decisions rather than last year’s requirement to also play a role in steering the team. Zac Hosking runs hard lines, as Matty Nicholson did before his injury, but is also given time in the middle once the sting is out of the game to run around in the space caused by fatigue. This is also facilitated by a team willing and able to create second phase play on the regular.
As Newcastle coach Adam O’Brien put it:
They’re a dangerous footy team, because they can be very unorthodox. They clearly offload the ball a lot, I think they had 14 or 15 offloads against us [last month]. They play a real bush-footy type style. They’ll look for opportunities and if you want to take a rest in your defensive line, they’ll find you.
In a sense this characterisation isn’t anything new. That’s how Canberra have played footy for a long time under Ricky Stuart. But the success is. So what has occurred? There are a multitude of inputs and it’s always difficult to attribute cause when you’re operating in an un-testable environment. But we can hazard some guesses.
Several players are having career best years. Jamal Fogarty has twenty try assists, one of two Raiders players in the Stuart era to have 20 try assists in the season (Aidan Sezer had 22 in 2017 per Fox stats). Ethan Strange already has more try assists (12) than 2024 (10 – again Fox numbers). Zac Hosking and Savelio Tamale (who was leading the league in line breaks and tackle breaks until his injury, and is still top 10 in both) have both added unique flavour. Even engine room players like Morgan Smities and Ata Mariota are having an impact. There’s a lot of people rowing in the same direction.
At least some of these also has to be put down to how much time players have spent together. Cohesion is often hypothesised to be a big driver in on-field success, and it’s something that can only be built on time and reps together. As we’ve noted previously:
Much of this group has been around each other since ‘Rona in some form. In fact of the normal starting 13, almost all of them debuted with the club between 2019 and 2021 (Kris, Timoko, Starling, Horse, Huddo, Savage) or before. Jamal Fogarty a relative newcomer, is in his fourth season with the club.
But these is not the only explanation. One that we hadn’t realised was a change from 2024 is the increased role of assistant Coach Justin Giteau in the attack. From 2022 through the 2024 season that job had been the domain of Mick Crawley, and we weren’t aware that a change had occurred in the offseason. But according to Tom Starling in the Greenhouse, that change has been made, and is a big reason of the abrupt success this year.
We’ll have to give Justin Giteau, our new attack coach, a lot of praise for our attack. It’s quite different to what we’ve been doing the last few years. At the start of the pre-season, I was thinking, ‘Oh, is this going to work?’ But he’s tailored our attack to what we’re very good at and what we’re strong at. He’s looked at our strengths and weaknesses, and we’re attacking what we’re good at.
He goes on to outline just how Giteau is utilising their speed to their advantage.
We’re all about coordinating fast in good attacking position….We’ve got speed across the park. Our middle forwards are just laying such a good platform for the likes of me, Jamal Fogarty, Ethan Strange and Kaeo Weekes to play off the back of. We’re still a long way off where we wanted to get to in our attack, but it’s come along really nicely.
This gels with our understanding and observations, suggesting that Giteau is having an impact.
This is pleasing to see for many reasons. It’s speaks to the our feeling that the club was underutilising it’s talent in recent years, unable to adjust to a new style of football that had emerged post-rona (and Vlandoball). The Raiders have now adjusted, and done so well. This suggests this improvement can continue beyond this year, and if further change comes to the game that they are flexible enough to adjust again.
It’s also great to see a local coach working his way through the competition and proving himself a success. When Giteau moved from the NSW Cup team in late 2023 (where he’d done an admirable job) we had hoped this would have an instant impact. It did not, but perhaps that was more out of a mismatch of role. No one could question the impact of giving him the tiller this year.
Canberra also have Brock Shepperd as another professional coach who’s done the hard yards in lower levels of footy, and had success with the club at NSW Cup level. Perhaps the Raiders can match their youth movement on the field with a cohort of coaches off the field that grow with the players. The Ivan Clearly coaching tree, which includes two previously unheralded coaches of current top four sides, has been a big part of the Panthers success. It would be good if this becomes a trend for the Milk.
It’s always hard to attribute causality here, but going forward we’re comfortable operating on the assumption that Justin Giteau has had a significant impact on Canberra’s attack. Here’s hoping he can do it for much longer.
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