BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders are going to sign Ata Mariota, Morgan Smithies and Simi Sasagi to extensions. This is a prediction, not reporting. But given the consistency with which Canberra have progressed through extending their roster this season, it may as well be the latter.

Canberra have been on a tear lately, trying to lock up their entire roster and then some in preparation for the entry of the Perth Bears and maybe the Papua New Guinean team. Everyone they want, or intend to keep, is getting a deal (cue the Oprah gif). Strange, Pattie, Starling, Martin, Weekes, Hosking have all signed on. The Raiders are future proofing.

This has followed such a predictable formula that even someone who stabbed themselves with a fork eating lunch (Hi!) could notice the pattern. Reporting that negotiations have opened is step one. Then we roll out some quotes from the players about how they’re keen to do a deal, then reporting of an agreement is close, before finalisation is reported, either in the papers or through papal club announcement.

It seems with Morgan and Ata we’re already at the quotes stage. Mariota told The Canberra Times

I’m looking forward to [staying] here, if that’s possible. The teammates that I have here, I love everyone, so I want to stay here as long as possible

 In the same article, Smithies is quoted as saying:

I’d love to [re-sign], I love this club. Obviously, if the opportunity came, I’d definitely take it. What this club’s done for me, they’ve looked after me, given me a chance, and I’d love to repay them

Those statements aren’t so much comments as statements of intent. If they had leverage prior, they gave it up in those statements. This suggests that the deals are pretty much done and that’s all that’s left is crossing the ‘Ts’ and dotting the lower case ‘js’. Quotes have been doing the rounds about Simi, but in an interesting twist they’ve come from Sticky, instead of Sasagi.

We’re quite fortunate at the moment having a guy like Simi Sasagi….We’ve got great trust and faith in Simi. He’s a very talented footy player.

Don Furner too has chimed in:

We definitely want to keep him, and we’re trying hard to do that. We’re in discussions with him and we’ve started the process for a two-year extension

Starter’s gun fired it seems. Ok, it’s not quite the same style as Smithies or Mariota’s commentary, but it’s still a good sign, if only a step back in the process. And given that’s a process we’ve seen followed repeatedly this year it’s enough to make you very confident about the club being able to sign him.

Of course it’s not all easy waters and mai tais. The Canberra longship has lost some friends along the way. Pasami Saulo will leave the club at the end of the year, and it’s looking like Chevy Stewart and Trey Mooney will too. Corey Harawira-Naera’s situation is unclear, but what is clear is that he won’t be the team in 2026.

I think most would consider the Mariota and Sasagi deals to be no-brainers. Mariota has really taken a leap this year, averaging a career high 85 metres a game in limited bench minutes. With Smithies, Papalii, and/or Hosking he’s formed a critical part of the forward rotation through the middle 40 minutes of the game. His ability to either hold, or elevate the Raiders performance has not just kept them in, but allowed them to take over games in that period.

It’s also meant more rest for the starters, contributing to Canberra’s impressive ability to roll over teams at the end of games. Mariota is just 23, entering his prime. We’ve seen him as the natural successor to Josh Papalii. Right now he’s living up to that promise and Canberra are getting on board to bank the benefits.

Sasagi is a gamble come good. Brought to the club to build backrow depth, he’s not only made that transition, but retained his ability to cover multiple positions across the backline. In addition to his comments above, Stick noted his desire to maintain depth, and versatility in the squad. Sasagi (and Hosking) are key to that. Canberra now have a 17 that can handle almost any look thrown at them by the opposition.

The only player of this group that might draw eyebrows is Smithies. He’s not a physically dominant runner like Trey Mooney, a player that Smithies is essentially being chosen ahead of. Mooney seems destined to be a big name player in the coming years; given time and opportunity he’ll be grind out big numbers and be a success wherever he goes. Many will feel that the Raiders are missing a chance to have a long-term middle bookend alongside Ata Mariota. The idea of Trey Mooney appeals, even if the reality as yet hasn’t delivered.

Extending Smithies is more about certainty and balance. Smithies may not be the upside ball runner of Trey Mooney, but his consistency of impact this year is more consistently first grade quality. His defensive effort is a key balancer to the Raiders squad. Alongside Corey Horsburgh and Zac Hosking he provides bulk defensive efforts to allow other middles to focus their efforts on the other side of the ball. He is one of Canberra’s leading tacklers, and has one of the highest minute/tackle ratios at the club, something that he can muster in short minutes or long. In 30 minutes against the Storm in round he made 19 tackles. In 60 minutes against the Warriors he made 40 tackles. He is the same animal and a different beast.

Player	Minutes	Tackles	Ratio
Smithies	804	457	0.57
Tapine	864	464	0.54
Horsburgh	939	536	0.57
Hosking	1013	502	0.50
Mariota	601	286	0.48
Papalii	681	354	0.52
Mooney (NSW Cup*)	812	376	0.47

Choosing Smithies over Mooney reflects the desire for that balance between the middles. While Mooney’s small sample in first grade shows more defensive workload, in Cup he has tackle rate below any of the first grade middles. That’s not a knock. In that side he’s asked to be the battering ram, players like Pasami Saulo and Jordan Martin the workhorses. It’s roles and holes. First grade have Joey Taps, Josh Papalii and Ata Mariota punching holes. They have Horse and Morgan covering them up. They need Morgan more than Mooney. At least that’s the decision they’re making.

Smithies will almost certainly sign an extension, as will Mariota and Sasagi. If this season is anything to go by, Canberra have undertaken a process to build a long window. These last three signatures will ensure the bulk of the 2025 roster stays with the club through to the end of 2028. This isn’t without risk, but it sure as hell is a good one to take.

Do me a favour and like the page on Facebook, follow me on Twitter, or share this on social media because love is true and heaven is a Raiders victory. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not. Feature image courtesy of Gary Ramage.