BY DAN

Each year we write the equivalent of a book’s worth of chaotic and sometimes lucid thoughts, primarily about the Canberra Raiders. There isn’t a incident, a signing, a game, that goes by that we don’t at least have some peripheral thoughts on it.

For the most part you people allow me to vent my feelings and make it seem way less crazy by reading, commenting, etc. Sure, you’re also crazy, but that’s what the Raiders do to us. And so while I get the outlet, most of the time you are subject to my whims in terms of what I talk about. It’s a little selfish really.

So every now and then we do a mailbag. They’re surprisingly a lot of work. WordPress doesn’t enjoy the amount of blocking and formatting so things go highway all the time (instinctively presses ‘save draft’ so we don’t have a repeat of *that* incident). They’re long. But they’re fun, because instead of me telling you what I think like the annoying guy at the bar, you get to drive the conversation. So what do you want to get off your chest?

Do you think this Canberra Raiders team believe that they can win the 2025 comp? Do you think they can?

Darren

Give us your top reason why we can’t do it this year and you top reason we can. I’ve become accustomed to last minute miracles with this team and always believe we can pull something out of the fire. On the other hand, Matty Johns has us as favourites so we’re doomed.

J Doyle

Is this the premiership window? They open when they open – rosters and lack of injuries help, so when opportunity knocks, you don’t want to be driving to the maternity hospital or sitting in some phony-baloney church. You grab it and go. 

David R

A theme! Talk about a time to be alive. At some level we should all be grateful for where we are. At the same level it’s just a new type of anxiety. Do I deserve this? Are we worthy? I hope so.

David is right to say they open when they open. Canberra are good enough now. If they don’t kick on towards the end of the season, or in the finals, people should be disappointed. They need to grab the chance of a flat competition, no unbeatable favourite, and the fact they could have home field advantage until the grand final, as the platform they need to take a big run.

Can we win the whole thing? Absolutely. I would put them as one of five teams that can. 20 per cent isn’t a sure thing, but holy hell it’s 20 per cent more than it’s been in a while. The reason they can win is the pace they can play with for all 80 minutes of the game. When healthy, bringing Hosking, Mariota and Smithies off the bench is such a step change for other teams to handle. Owen Pattie will be a secret weapon too (ok not quite a secret but you get the drift).

What’s the reason they can’t? It’s really flipping hard to win a ‘chip, and their defence is still hairy as it comes. The right edge defence in particular is prone to chaos, and the dirty secret there is it’s a lot to do with Jamal Fogarty (as opposed to solely Matt Timoko’s fault). They’ll need to get healthy and tighten that up to win the whole shebang.

Are the 2025 Raiders the best team because they rule, or because there’s a drop off everywhere else? Or both?

John B

I think we certainly rule. I don’t think anyone would dispute that. Is there a flat-lining in the competition? Maybe, or maybe we’ve just grown used to the Panthers juggernaut that the world feels a little different now.

With an eye to 2026, should Ricky give Ethan Sanders more opportunities in first grade this season? Maybe rest Fog for a couple of weeks before the finals if we have a top two/top four spot secured?

Pelechaty the gawd

Is it time to give Ethan Sanders a run in the NRL side? Or would this be too disruptive at this point?

Richard P

Welcome to the ‘questions about specific players’ section.

On Sanders it’s pretty straightforward for me. If by round 27 if our finals position is settled then definitely agree that Fogarty should be rested. I would caution against him being rested longer than that. Sometimes it takes a while to get the wheels turning again and you need to be full throttle come round one.

When Sanders played he played on the left with Strange on the right. With our right side defensive woes do you think swapping Fogarty and Strange could help out, knowing how good Strange is defensively and then Hudson can help protect fogz?? Or don’t upset the apple cart. Thinking about the back end of the season and teams even lower tiered teams seem to be pulling that edge apart with ease. I’m worried when we come across good halves who should take full advantage.

Rory P

Great question Rory.

Next year it’s almost certain that Ethan Sanders will play on the left, and Ethan Strange on the right. It’s the preferred side of both players in attack. In defence it does put Sanders between Seb Kris and Hudson Young, which is great support for the young half. Strange, an obviously strong defender, will make Matt Timoko’s life a lot easier.

For this year though the benefits of the shift won’t outweigh the risk of separation for me. As we wrote recently, there’s a lot to be sad for cohesion, for the connections forged over a season. Shifting now would risk both signify lack of confidence to the playing group, and a general lack of trust in what they’ve achieved. To me it’s an absolute last resort.

How the hell do we shore up the Timoko/Savage edge – or can you convince me it is less fragile than it looks?

Nick M

Well you see maybe if you shift Fogarty to….ha jokes. I think at the moment the issue is two-fold. Firstly Jamal’s lateral agility isn’t that spectacular. That means he can get caught up when he has to check on the backrower and then get to the outside. Timoko gets put in two minds by this, caught between helping in, and the fact that Xavier Savage tends to neither help in nor stay out because he loves an intercept.

I think Fogarty and Timoko have shown they’re capable of making the right decisions and movements. Teams have tended to shade to attacking there as games have got tight and so far when it’s been needed, both have had the alacrity to make the right movements. It’s about doing it more consistently. I’m not sure I have an easy answer there. Brock Sheppard, the coach working on the edge defence this year, has his work cut out for him.

How would you use Pattie over remaining games prior to the finals?

And when Matty Nice is back how do we beat use Hosking as a middle?

Matt

I would be increasing Owen to 20 minutes per in first grade and sprinkle in some Cup games to make sure he’s got the 80 minutes in him. If Canberra are going baby Raiders in round 27 because their playoff situation is locked in, then he’s rolling 60 plus in that too.

Matty Nice starts on the edge for me. I want Zac tearing it up as part of the rotation.

There’s been a lot of hype about Chevy Stewart. Where do you see him fitting into the first team going forward?

Jeremy L

I wrote about this recently. In short, I don’t. The play of Weekes, and the club’s coming long-term commitment to him, has basically removed Stewart from calculations, at least at fullback. Stewart is most definitely just that. He’s too small to be a half, and that’s not his playing style anyway. He’s also not a yardage monster the Raiders need on the wings. On occasion he’s played a little centre in Cup (literally, zing!) but is at such a size disadvantage it doesn’t make sense.

With the Bears and Kumuls entering the first grade market over the next 12 months, it makes no sense for him to stay in Canberra when more explicit opportunities will exist elsewhere.

If the Canberra Raiders were a TV show what would they be?

Herman B

I mean it’s Seinfeld right? The best thing on earth in the 90s. When you watch it now it mostly holds up (except for bizarrely creepy stuff like “boys will be boys” staring at the 15 year old’s cleavage – in Seinfeld. I’m not accusing the 90s Raiders of that). Still held up by a generation of us as the gold standard.

Here’s a few others while I’m at it. The Tigers are Westworld. Had one good season that led to people thinking something great was happening and it wasn’t. The Eels are A Country Practice because they’re the thing people were obsessed with when I was a kid. The Broncos are the Simpsons, great back in the day but people forget how long it’s been a since they were actually good. Manly is the Big Bang Theory because I hate them and it annoys me so many people like them. The Roosters are Succession: expecting me to care about hereditary corporations is too much, but still good. Oh and the Titans are Animaniacs.

Who do you see as the best fit for the “experienced half” the Raiders are chasing at the moment?

Albert M

This stuff always requires the caveat of someone actually being willing to come to Canberra to probably be a back up.

It’s funny because I think it’s Jake Clifford and I can’t decide if this is some Gabbo scenario. It’s not Lachlan Illias though, I’ll tell you that.

This is two questions really, about the big man. 

The reactions I see online for Papa’s two tries and conversion in his record breaking game make me believe he might be the most beloved in the game at the moment. What’s your opinion of this?

Following on, Papa has said that he doesn’t want to play against the raiders at the end of his career. While I know he’s signed in the Super league, with his child’s diagnosis I wonder if he might actually stay in Australia. Do you think he’s a chance to be re-signed? 

Russell T

I think not liking Josh Papalii – at least in the experience of him as a footballer – is more of a reflection of you than him. He’d have to be close to unanimous approval. If he’s not the most beloved then I’m not sure who is. After his record breaking game against the Bunnies but also in the lead-up and aftermath of Origin, it was pretty clear how loved he is.

I want us to re-sign Papa. As to whether it will be with Canberra, time will tell. Pasami Saulo leaving may open up the space for him, but the club has been pretty clear they’re expecting Papa will leave, and are going to great lengths to praise him for going to the Super League. It could be an example of them trying to speak it into existence, but I would note that the Queensland players also thought he was heading to the Super League.

The Perth Bears are set to take an opportunity presented by being a one city club with a one city rugby union club. Is there any upside to a player sharing agreement with the Brumbies?

Andrew B

So here’s my take. Rugby union, in Australia at least, is not the talent source most would hope it to be. The pathways for union in this country have been eaten alive by league. At 15, 16 and 17 players who grew up playing union are shifting to league in search of a career. So if most young union players all end up in league anyway, the number who are good enough to transition at the top end, after years playing essentially a semi-professional sport, are few and far between.

Further, the games are so different now. Over the last 20 years rugby league has professionalised to a degree that bodies are built so specifically that the old “throw em in there” just doesn’t work. So while there may be some utility in the occasional player, there would be more benefit in scouring QLD cup, England and other league-based talent bases.

In the last three NRL Annual Reports, broadcast revenue has remained the financial backbone of the game, while club grants and operating expenses have continued to rise. Given that, do you think we’re heading for a sustainability crunch unless the NRL starts applying more ‘moneyball’ thinking, not just in recruitment, but in how it funds clubs and grows the game?

Would love to hear your thoughts on whether the NRL is investing smartly enough in pathways, expansion, or even admin efficiencies or if we’re just hoping a new TV deal bails us out every cycle.

High-five ready.

Best Regards,

David

David I love this question and I think it’s such an important one for the game. Before I get to it, it’s been a while since I’ve had the brain capacity to get into the NRL’s books, and that there are way smarter people than me, like Liam over at the Maroon Observer writing about this regularly. Call it a caveat, but as always, remember that I nearly threw my phone into the bin today instead of the empty coffee cup I was holding.

You’re absolutely right that broadcast revenue is the backbone of the game. That’s not something that’s unusual across major sports. But it’s a competitive environment rugby league could probably stand to be more effective at diversifying it’s revenue sources. A lot of clubs have invested in property (including the Raiders) and gaming. Sponsorship and game-day attendance also matter, but they’re a fickle beast. They definitely need to be maximised, and I think attendances in particular are improving.

On the ‘sustainability crunch’ challenge, I would say two things. I’m not convinced we’re going to see a proportionate reduction in broadcast revenue. Live sport remains the only thing that can draw people’s eyes away from TikTok and into the sweet purview of advertisers. But you’re right in that the NRL can’t just expect it to stay that way forever.

Of course if club expenditures continue to increase this becomes a problem. But I would say two things to this. Firstly, when V’Landys took over from Todd Greenberg, the first thing he did was to push the cost of development of talent and market engagement to clubs. He essentially got rid of huge swathes of the league’s development officers. This was done because Hugh Marks – the broadcaster- told him NRL HQ needed to trim the fat. At least that’s the understanding I’ve pieced together from reporting over the years.

It didn’t actually reduce the cost of development, more shifted where it appears on the books. I think you might make an argument that clubs will know where is most efficient to invest in pathways, and that it might reduce duplication to stop clubs from putting their own people in places to get ahead of the centralised development officers. But I also think it probably reduces the advantages of scale, and makes strategic engagement, expansion and early development of markets where there currently aren’t teams less likely, and more piecemeal.

Ultimately though, the club’s seek more and more in grants, and given they represent Vlando’s powerbase he keeps letting it expand. In terms of how you expand revenue and reduce costs, either at the club or through centralisation, most of my ideas require investment by the NRL. More and better merchandising, a non-game broadcast product (like the Netflix F1 show or Hard Knocks but not done in a super lame way that Nine or Fox would do, and with access to a global market through either Netflix, Amazon or Apple), or greater expansion internationally, require both strategic and substantial investment. So I have to admit I’m a little miffed at how we might streamline administration and increase revenue at the same time, without continuing to rely on broadcast revenue.

I know that’s not a very helpful answer. But it’s the best I’ve got right now. Thanks for that excellent question. High fives all round.

Evening Dan, simple question from me for once…who’s your favourite Englishman in the squad right now?

Harry E

Thanks Harry. After all that something simple is what I need.

Its a tough question. Those who know me know of my fondness for all of our English brethren (non cricket edition). Josh Hodgson may have been my favourite Raider since the golden era. Eliott Whitehead ground himself into dust for the club. I am even ambivalent to John Bateman, which I feel is as good as still liking him at this point.

At the moment though it’s Morgan. I think Matty Nice will end up being a better footballer, and he’s probably a top fella. But Morgan has really grown on me these last few years. Maybe it’s the redemptive arc. So many people had written him off last year. I hoped the club had just given him an impossible task. And this year he’s flourished.

As a person we’re always guessing from a distance, but it seems there’s an pleasant doofus-ness to him. Even the Vegas incident sounded more “drunk doofus misbehaves the most doofus way”. That pairs well with the fact that he appears to be made from tungsten.

Which of my three children would be best to sacrifice to guarantee a Raiders Premiership for this and the next 2-3 years?

T Mac esq.

Haha T Mac. Very funny. You’re joking? Right? RIGHT?

As a middle child I can confidently say first or third.

I can’t help but look for parallels with ‘89 – Laurie, Lazo, Clyde, Stuart in their 2nd or third years in grade with a mix of more established guns – Mal, Belcher, Steve Walters, Chicka, Lance. We now have Kaeo, Strange, Tamale, Savage, Nicholson, Ata, Pattie coming through with guns like Paps, Taps, Hudson, and Horse. The fear is how the kids will handle the pressure of finals from more experienced teams like the Storm and Panthers. Can the history of ‘89 be a guide (or an inspiration) to get them over the line? Or did the ‘89 team need the loss in ‘87 to get there (in which case does 2019 count with only 3 survivors)?.

Nick M 

Well Nick. I hope it’s 89 all over again. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. But just to be sure, maybe we should check in with T Mac.

Thanks to everyone who sent a question and if I didn’t answer it I’m sorry, I’m only human and actually really basic. Do me a favour and like the page on Facebook,  follow me on Twitter, or share this on social media or T Mac will come for your kids too. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not