BY DAN

That the time between their first two byes was considered ‘tough’ is been a testament to the new standards the Canberra Raiders have set in 2025.

Three wins in a row extended their streak to seven. Top of the ladder, sitting pretty through the Origin period as other teams have floated and sunk. Doing all this while missing a critical backrower that has sapped their bench strength. Missing their bell-cow outside back whose absence has only clarified how important he is. Add to that a consistent (though admittedly relatively light) representative presence. The fact we’re talking wins is just proof of how far they’ve come.

The truism goes winning despite the doldrums of the season, despite the slings and arrows, is what good teams do. Canberra have done that. While they haven’t been convincing, they’ve been obviously better than their opposition. Have they played their best? Obviously not. Have they red-lined their way to victory, insanely outworking their opposition with unsustainable chaos as in recent years? Also not.

They’ve averaged 22 points a game through the mini-season, as opposed 28 in the pre-bye period. Across the season they lead competition in post contact metres and tackle breaks, and are third in line breaks. Yet across the three games their gaps in those metrics were marginal. They only made 45 more post contact metres than their opposition (so 15 a game, virtually zero). They had four less tackle breaks and only 2 more line breaks. They did concede less points but that was likely more to do with the opposition than structural improvements in defence. Against three bottom eight teams it was hardly ideal.

The victories were pleasing in that they suggested the focus wasn’t just on winning games, but building something for later in the year. Canberra won by doing enough, holding back their effort and their game plans for later in the year. Joey Taps only played thirty minutes in their last outing. They got first grade minutes into players like Noah Martin, Simi Sasagi, Jed Stuart and Trey Mooney. They’ve also suggested they may look for other opportunities to get players big minutes playing in Cup. One assumes this would mean Owen Pattie may get time in Cup leading into the finals. That might also include Simi Sasagi or even Ata Mariota.

In this coming bloc between byes they have another run of non-contenders. There’s probably a temptation to hold it in the holster. None of the Eels (H), Knights (H), Dragons (A), and Sea Eagles (H) are likely to play a big part in September. There would be a temptation to see if they can get to the next bye (in round 24) with their position in the competition in tact, and without having to empty the clip.

That would allow them to re-incorporate Matty Nice (returning at some point in this bloc of games) and their origin players, as well as get them all the way to Sav Tamale returning, likely after the round 24 bye. The streak doesn’t matter – it’s a matter of probability they’ll drop a game at some point. But continuing to win more than they lose is the game, and maintaining a top-two spot come September would be a huge boon.

If winning through June and July is what good teams do, re-asserting themselves after Origin is another common factor. Upcoming is the time of year good teams do is prove what makes them work after the lulls of the Origin period. Good teams will start to round into form, and in some cases we saw the green shoots of this over the weekend. Canberra should seek to do the same.

We can argue about when their last full game performance was, but let’s go with gamblor and say it’s been a good five weeks since they’ve had a 13 plus victory (they went an entire season without managing that in 2023 so this is another measure of the raised stakes). It’s been a while for Canberra. It would be good if in this next bloc of games they showed us something closer to their best.

It doesn’t have to be permanent. However it would be good to see that they haven’t forgotten what’s made them good this year. Further if they have been able perhaps address some of their less-than-stellar features, like that right edge defence people are blaming on Matty T but is actually at least equally to put at the feet of Jamal Fogarty. It would also be good if they could retain their focus for a full 80 minutes, and return the speed and dynamism that marked their performance before the first bye.

They’re minor things. Winning is a habit, but what’s more of a habit is playing winning footy. This next bloc presents an opportunity to get back to that. Hopefully the Raiders can use this coming mini-season to do exactly that.

Do me a favour and like the page on Facebook, follow me on Twitter, or share this on social media and I’ll tell what my four year-olds favourite song is (it’s TNT by AC/DC and I don’t know why). Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.